1. Today's core news summary

1. Macroeconomics: FOMC decision window, market enters wait-and-see mode
The Federal Reserve's July meeting is scheduled for local time on the 28th-29th, with the market generally expecting interest rates to remain unchanged this time. However, interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to about 82%, with one rate hike already priced in. The dollar index maintains a strong range running between 101.0-101.5, while oil prices have slightly retreated, alleviating some inflation concerns. Global risk assets have generally entered a wait-and-see mode, waiting for the decision and Powell's speech for clear guidance.

2. Funds and clearing: Long positions concentrated on liquidations, leveraged risks released in stages
Approximately $1.6 billion in leveraged positions across the market were forcibly liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for over 75% (nearly $1.2 billion). Bitcoin single-position long liquidations amounted to about $134 million, triggered by concentrated stop-loss orders when it dipped to around $62,700. After the liquidation, a slight inflow of long funds occurred, with perpetual contract funding rates rising to +1bp. The market long-short ratio remains at 1.74, with longs still holding a slight advantage, but overall leverage levels have significantly declined.

3. Industry dynamics: Continuous technological upgrades, long-term consensus has discrepancies
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor stated that Bitcoin still has a hundredfold growth potential in the long term and could become the capital basis for the world. However, he also warned of potential risks from changes in network consensus rules; the privacy public chain Zcash completed the Ironwood network upgrade, replacing the original Orchard privacy pool, fixing security vulnerabilities, and promoting the migration of approximately $1.8 billion in assets; Ethereum privacy technology startup EthSystems launched an institutional-level on-chain privacy solution to lower the barriers for traditional financial institutions to access public chains.

4. Market sentiment: Panic range continues, funds cautiously await catalysts
The cryptocurrency fear and greed index remains in the "fear" range, with overall market risk preferences being cautious. Funds tend to reduce leverage and primarily remain on the sidelines before the decision. Market volatility has narrowed, and trading volume has shrunk compared to yesterday, with a total trading volume of about $61.8 billion in the past 24 hours.


The total market capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market is approximately $2.28 trillion, up 0.4% in the last 24 hours, with the overall market in a consolidation phase after a decline, waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision to break the current balance.

3. Mainstream coin strategies and entry point references

1. BTC
Market characterization: After a quick dip to a low of $62,785 yesterday, it recovered. A round of long liquidation was completed at the four-hour level, and it is currently oscillating near the Fibonacci 0.236 retracement level. Short-term support and resistance are relatively clear, and it is highly likely to maintain range trading before the decision, with directional choices needing to wait for macro catalysts.

• Key support:
◦ Strong support: $62,700 – $62,800 (yesterday's low + long-short divide; breaking below would return to a weak state in the short term)

• Key resistance:
◦ Strong resistance: $64,900 – $65,000 (integer mark + previous oscillation platform; stabilizing above would repair the rebound structure)

• Reference idea:
◦ If stabilizing around the $63,000–$63,300 range after a pullback, consider trying longs with light positions, placing stop-loss below $62,600

◦ If rebounding to the $65,000–$65,700 range shows pressure, consider short positions, placing stop-loss above $66,000

◦ Before the decision, focus on high-selling low-buying within the range, avoiding heavy bets on direction, and follow through after breaking key positions

2. ETH
Market characterization: The trend is significantly stronger than Bitcoin, quickly recovering the $1,900 integer mark after a drop yesterday, with dense support below; the short-term structure is neutral but slightly strong. However, the 100-day moving average resistance is obvious, lacking independent upward momentum, and overall still needs to wait for broader market directional guidance.

• Key support:
◦ Strong support: $1,860 – $1,865 (previous oscillation platform, long-short divide; breaking below would slow down the rebound rhythm)

• Key resistance:
◦ Strong resistance: $1,970 – $1,980 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level + mid-term trapped area)

• Reference idea:
◦ If stabilizing around the $1,885–$1,895 range after a pullback, consider trying longs with light positions, placing stop-loss below $1,855

◦ If rebounding to the $1,935–$1,945 range shows pressure, consider short positions, placing stop-loss above $1,955

◦ If effectively stabilizing above $1,935 with increased volume, look for upward momentum to the $1,970-$1,980 range

3. SOL

Market characterization: Following the broader market for a synchronizing bottom rebound, overall elasticity is weaker than ETH, with a high correlation movement with BTC; after yesterday’s liquidation, trading volume has shrunk, with general market interest, treating it with a range repair approach during the day.

• Key support:
◦ First support: $73.5 – $73.8 (short-term intraday acceptance level)
◦ Strong support: $72.5 – $72.8 (yesterday’s low; breaking below would return to a weak state)

• Key resistance:

◦ First resistance: $74.8 – $75.0 (intraday rebound pressure level)

◦ Strong resistance: $75.8 – $76.0 (previous oscillation platform)

• Reference idea:

◦ If stabilizing around the $72.5–$73 range after a pullback, consider trying longs with light positions, placing stop-loss below $72.3

◦ If rebounding to the $75.1–$75.5 range shows pressure, consider short positions, placing stop-loss above $76.0

◦ If breaking below $72.5, it is recommended to avoid and not rush to bottom-fish from the left side.
Operation supplementary reminders

1. As the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Powell's speech approach, market uncertainty is extremely high, volatility is likely to amplify. It is advised to significantly reduce positions, strictly set stop-loss, and control individual positions at a very low level to avoid holding bets on a single outcome.
2. Core observables for the day: language of the Federal Reserve decision, guidance on September rate hikes, correlation performance of the dollar index with US stocks.

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