Yesterday's homework has been mentioned, the probability of interest rate hikes in July is too low, at least personally I believe it does not exist. Considering oil prices, oil prices were higher in March and April this year, but Powell did not choose to raise interest rates, let alone that oil prices are relatively low compared to that time.

I personally feel that all current interest rate hike expectations are based on oil prices above 90 dollars. If oil prices can fall back to below 70 dollars, then not only will there be no interest rate hike this year, but there is also a possibility of interest rate cuts. However, if oil prices remain between 80 and 70 dollars in the long term, then I still do not think the probability of an interest rate hike is high.

Unless it lingers above 100 dollars for a long time, and continues for three to five months, with inflation continuing to rise, will the Federal Reserve really enter into interest rate hikes. In the current situation, at least personally I believe the probability of an interest rate hike is very low.

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