The crypto market has been watching Bitcoin very carefully this week, and for once, what it found on the chart was at least partly reassuring.
Bitcoin has clawed back to $66,347 as of Wednesday afternoon after testing lows near $58,000 in recent weeks. The 200-period exponential moving average held as support and the so-called death cross on the chart that traders have been watching seems to be getting just a bit thinner, sparking hopes of a crossover into a golden cross in the upcoming months.
The macro backdrop, however, isn't helping clarity.
U.S. stocks opened with a mixed bag on Wednesday as investors braced for major tech earnings from Alphabet and Tesla. The S&P 500 dipped 0.16% at the bell while the Nasdaq fell 0.56%, as caution built across Wall Street ahead of the AI-spending results that could define the market's next move. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 33—cautious, not panicked, which is its own kind of impasse.
Two forces are pulling Bitcoin in opposite directions right now. On the bullish side, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers the Clarity Act is at the "1-yard line"—the long-stalled crypto market structure bill that would resolve the SEC vs. CFTC jurisdiction fight—and urged Congress to pass it before the August 7 recess.
On the bearish side, the Coinbase Premium Index—which tracks whether U.S. institutional buyers are paying a premium over global retail prices—has been negative since May. As Decrypt reported last week, Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, reads that kind of persistent institutional caution as "a broader bout of risk aversion rather than a deterioration in crypto-specific fundamentals." Macro-driven, in other words. Not panic. But also not buyers.
Bitcoin price: The 200 EMA earned its keep
Bitcoin's daily candle on July 22 opened at $66,520, hit a high of $66,698, dipped to $65,488, and is printing near $66,208—down 0.47% on the day. The 24-hour range is tight, but a strong support around the $65,000 held strong.
The coin bounced near that area to its current prices.
Bitcoin price data. Image: Tradingview
The EMA is a moving average that weighs recent prices more heavily. The 200-day version is basically the big-picture trend. When Bitcoin crashes toward this line and buyers step in, it tells you there's real demand at that floor. That's what happened here. The 200 EMA held, and Bitcoin recovered. For long-term holders who were watching the chart go vertical-down, that's a signal to consider.
But the EMA structure is still structurally bearish. The chart shows the 50-day EMA sitting below the 200-day EMA—the formation traders call a death cross. A death cross means the shorter-term average trend is weaker than the longer-term trend. Another way to put it is long-term holders are losing more money than shorter-term holders, because they bought the asset earlier at higher prices.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, is at 19.5. ADX measures the strength of a trend on a scale of 0 to 100—it says nothing about direction, only conviction. Readings below 25 are typically classified as "no trend" territory. At 19.5, Bitcoin is firmly in that zone. There's movement, but no momentum. But this is actually not bad news for traders: Considering the coin is in a bearish trend, a low ADX means the crash is losing strength.
The RSI at 59.9 is the clearest positive signal on the dashboard. The Relative Strength Index measures buying momentum from 0 to 100. Below 30 is oversold; above 70 is overbought. At 59.9, Bitcoin is in bullish territory—above the neutral 50 line—without being stretched enough to trigger automatic selling by momentum traders. There's still room to run before the chart starts flashing red on the upside.
On Myriad, the prediction market built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders are drawing a precise line for this Sunday. The market prices just 19% odds that Bitcoin clears $68,000 by July 26 at 4PM UTC. The $66,000 market is basically a coin flip, with traders leaning slightly bullish at 55%. Traders, at least right now, think the current range holds. That tracks with the low-ADX, squeeze-forming technical picture: something is coming, but maybe not by this weekend.
On the longer-term Bitcoin market on Myriad,, the picture is still skeptical with traders pricing in 64.6% odds on a dump to $55K before a pump to $84K. That's a meaningful majority calling the bear case. It's consistent with the negative Coinbase Premium, the death cross still printing on the daily, and the weak ADX reading that says this rally hasn't earned conviction yet.
The bullish argument rests on three things: the 200 EMA held its support, RSI is above 50 with room to run, and the Clarity Act is closer to becoming law than at any point this year.
A favorable Senate vote could be the catalyst that finally breaks Bitcoin with enough momentum to trigger a short-liquidation cascade toward $70,000. Bernstein analysts still have a $150K year-end target in play, acknowledging the current level is "ambitious in context of the market correction" but maintaining the thesis.
The bearish argument has more technical weight right now. The death cross is still active. ADX at 19.5 means no real trend momentum is behind this bounce. Nine hundred-plus hours of negative Coinbase Premium signals institutions aren't accumulating. And the squeeze, statistically, may resolve in the direction of the prior trend—which is down.
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
