The original text is from Doctor Profit
Translation｜Odaily Planet Daily Qin Xiaofeng（@QinXiaofeng888）
Editor’s Note: The blogger "Doctor Profit," who has 500,000 fans in the English-speaking community, accurately predicted the peak of BTC in 2025 ($126,000), shorting over 100 altcoins profitably, and even predicted that BTC would drop to $30,000 to $40,000.
However, last Saturday, "Doctor Profit" released his latest tweet stating that he has recently closed all short positions and re-bought Bitcoin spot, planning to dollar-cost average in the $54,000 to $64,000 range. He gave several reasons: first, market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, retail investors are collectively waiting for a "four-year cycle bottom" at $40,000 to $50,000, while he chooses to get ahead of the crowd, believing that the bottom will come earlier; second, Bitcoin is facing a structural transformation—tokenization pilots (with participants like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs), progress on the CLARITY Act, and institutional capital accelerating into the market, these factors are dismantling the conditions for a deeper crash; third, the crypto bear market has lasted nine months, whereas the stock market has just peaked, and the funds from the crash may flow into the undervalued crypto market.
This blog post has garnered 2.3 million views on the X platform. Below is the original content, translated by Odaily Planet Daily, Enjoy~
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Today, I will announce one of the most significant operations since I exited the peak in September 2025—I have closed all my crypto short positions.
The Bitcoin short positions established between $115,000 and $125,000 have now been closed, yielding substantial profits. The short position with an average price of $80,500 established between $79,000 and $82,000 has also been closed, similarly yielding substantial profits. Over the past few months, I have closed more than 100 short positions on altcoins, again locking in huge profits.
Now, I can finally say goodbye to the leisurely times. Congratulations to all my friends who have ignored market noise, trusted my strategic framework, and have been following me since September 2025!
Buying Bitcoin Spot
This is the first time I have re-bought Bitcoin spot since September 2025. Today, I entered the market at $64,000 as a purely long-term position. This is my first purchase of Bitcoin for long-term holding in nine months! This is the beginning of a structured dollar-cost averaging strategy that I will execute with the same discipline applied when I exited at the peak.
Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy
All my friends who followed my strategy in the $115,000 to $125,000 range know exactly how I operated at that time. Every time Bitcoin traded within that range, I would sell 10% of my spot position and establish a short position. I did not care whether Bitcoin's price was $116,000, $120,000, or $124,000.
Now, I am doing the exact opposite. As long as Bitcoin is between $54,000 and $64,000, I will buy spot Bitcoin daily with 5% of my planned funds. This time it is not 10%, but 5%, as I want to extend the dollar-cost averaging period longer! If Bitcoin remains at $62,000, I will buy; if it drops to $58,000, I will buy again; if it drops to $56,000, I will buy again; if it spikes down to $54,000, I will buy even more aggressively. Even if it goes back to $64,000, I will still buy. As long as Bitcoin stays in this range, I will buy daily with 5% of my total funds, planning to continue for 20 days.
Technical Range and Sentiment Reversal
A classic indicator—the 200-week moving average (MA200) is positioned in this area and is currently being tested from below. Bitcoin reached the lower edge of this area last week. The top of the 2024 consolidation box also coincides with this.
More importantly, market sentiment has completely reversed.
I must say, there are far more bears outside right now than bulls, and I hate to be part of the "majority." Those shouting at the top that it can go up to $150,000 are now desperately waiting for it to drop to $40,000. The X platform is flooded with target prices of $50,000, $45,000, $42,000, and $38,000. Retail investors are again collectively standing on one side of the boat, confident that the market owes them a perfect entry point.
Getting Ahead of the Herd (Front-Running the Herd)
Since I marked the $50,000 to $40,000 range as deeper bear market targets, most people on crypto Twitter have copied my rhetoric. They copy everything, but the market is not blind. The market knows that retail investors are sitting on cash waiting below $50,000; they know that people are afraid to buy at $64,000.
I will not go with the flow, begging the market to give me the same price as everyone else; I want to get ahead. The next few trades will also push the price up, in a continuous loop, extending the price chain, while those waiting for lower prices can only wait there forever.
The four-year cycle works at the top does not mean it is likewise effective at the bottom. Now, everyone is waiting for September or October, as if the market has written the bottom in the calendar. Do you understand how ridiculous this is? Ask others when they plan to buy, and they will all tell you September or October. Ask them why, and they will repeat the same answer: because of the four-year cycle. This is a classic herd effect.
But what if the real cycle is not exactly four years? What if it's three years and nine months or ten months? What if the market bottoms before the dates everyone is waiting for? Bulls are waiting, bears are also waiting, and everyone is using the same indicators to prove that the timing is right. Just this alone is enough to cause panic among all those waiting for the four-year cycle's appearance. The market will not reward people for memorizing the calendar. I am not optimistic about the four-year cycle bottoming. It will not happen; the bottom will only come earlier.
Structural Shifts Behind Bitcoin
The deeper reasons for change are not technical but structural. The environment surrounding Bitcoin is transforming at a pace that most people have yet to comprehend.
Clear regulations, tokenization infrastructure, and institutional adoption are advancing synchronously, while the legal framework currently being built is expected to unlock trillions of dollars of institutional capital that have been waiting or remaining in the stock market for certainty. Combined with Coinbase's institutional buildout and BlackRock's fully operational ETF ecosystem, we are no longer facing the Bitcoin market of six months ago. The “CLARITY Act” is expected to pass on August 10, with the specific date depending on the Senate's voting results, which is no small matter. The world is now competing fiercely to regulate cryptocurrency, and there are reasons behind this.
BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and the New York Stock Exchange have all joined the DTCC's real-time tokenization pilot project. Microsoft stock, SPY, QQQ, and U.S. Treasuries are currently being tested as tokenized securities with plans to officially launch in October. Stocks, ETFs, and Treasuries are being put on-chain, and the world’s largest institutions are adopting blockchain technology, while retail investors are still debating whether the bear market has ended. Additionally, Citadel has just injected $400 million directly into http://Crypto.com at a valuation of $20 billion.
The largest players are deploying capital on a massive scale before the public understands what is happening. The infrastructure is being built right in front of everyone, and my capital will flow when the largest capital in the world starts to move, not after.
Before the public understands, the biggest players are deploying funds on a large scale. The infrastructure is being constructed right before everyone’s eyes, and my money will flow when the largest capital in the world begins to move, rather than after.
On Stock Market Crashes
I will retain all S&P 500 short positions. Bitcoin and the stock market are not the same trading commodities, and they are in different phases of the cycle. The crypto bear market began in October 2025 and has lasted nine months, while the stock market has remained strong during the same period. The price of Bitcoin plunged 52% from $125,000 to $60,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index reached an all-time high.
Cryptocurrency has completed its value reevaluation, while stocks are still overvalued. Therefore, the crypto market is likely to benefit from the stock market crash as funds will flow from overvalued assets to undervalued assets, and given the tokenization craze, stablecoin discussions, and the CLARITY Act, this capital is likely to flow into the crypto market.
One More Thing
I had explicitly predicted Bitcoin's target price range to be $40,000 to $50,000. At that time, Bitcoin's price was at $120,000, and I predicted it would be $60,000; when the price reached $60,000, I said $40,000 to $50,000 was imminent.
However, when all traders on the X platform began to wait for the same price point, the market almost never truly reached that level. Six months ago, no one predicted that Bitcoin would fall below $50,000. And now, almost every account is predicting that. This is precisely the moment when the target price is taken "off the table."
I now believe that we will not see the price range of $40,000 to $50,000 in this cycle. The market structure that should bring that price level is unraveling under the impacts of the tokenization revolution, the CLARITY Act, and the influx of the world’s largest capital.
An excellent trader should adjust their views based on actual conditions. This is why going short at $120,000 made me a fortune and why I am now starting to dollar-cost average, while others are still waiting for a long-anticipated bottom that will never arrive in the way they expect it to.
The public has become extremely bearish, and the conditions for a deeper crash are beginning to unravel in the face of regulation and the tokenization revolution. I would prefer to start building my position before the public understands this shift rather than chase Bitcoin at higher prices after confirmation signals appear. Step ahead before the public begins to awaken.
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