Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

The much-anticipated "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act" (CLARITY Act) is expected to be delayed again. Senator Cynthia Lummis previously stated that negotiators expect to finalize the compromise text around July 4 (U.S. Independence Day) and "move forward in July," but progress is currently significantly behind schedule.

Now, with the Senate recess approaching on August 10, the remaining window is shrinking: the bill must reach the 60-vote threshold in the Senate (at least 7 Democrats must cross the aisle), be coordinated with the Senate Agriculture Committee's text, merged with the House bill, and signed by the President, all within the next 25 working days, making the timeline extremely tight.

If the window before the August recess is missed, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year will further decline. In fact, prediction market Polymarket shows that the likelihood of the bill passing this year is only 40%; Galaxy Digital has also lowered the probability of it passing in 2026 to 50%.

1. Review of the Latest Progress on the CLARITY Act

The CLARITY Act is a landmark cryptocurrency market structure legislation promoted by the U.S. Congress, designed to clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, provide a non-securities path for decentralized tokens, and require digital commodity intermediaries to register and fulfill anti-money laundering obligations.

On July 17, 2025, the House passed HR 3633 introduced by French Hill with 294 votes in favor and 134 votes against, with more than 70 Democratic votes; on May 14, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced it and passed it 15-9 (with support from 13 Republicans and 2 Democrats). On June 1, 2026, the CLARITY Act was officially listed on the Senate legislative calendar (Calendar No. 423), qualifying for full review.

However, the advancement of the CLARITY Act throughout June was not smooth. On June 9, negotiations over ethical provisions regarding the President's cryptocurrency holdings broke down, directly leading to some Democratic legislators softening their positions or proposing additional conditions, slowing the bill's entry into floor debate. On June 10, the White House held meetings with police and prosecutors' groups, after which the enforcement struggle surrounding Section 604 of the "Blockchain Regulatory Clarity Act" (the developer protection clause) became stalled; if not resolved, enforcement groups may lobby against it, and Democratic legislators might vote against it for being "not protective enough of consumers/fighting crime."

In simple terms, the former represents a "political/ethical threshold," while the latter represents an "enforcement/safety red line," both of which together constitute the last two major obstacles for the CLARITY Act's "passage" in the Senate. If these issues cannot be resolved, it will be difficult to gather 60 votes and finalize the text, making it impossible to complete the legislation before the August 10 recess. These two negotiation hurdles directly obstructed the final advancement of the CLARITY Act, causing the July 4 target to be missed and the overall progress to become stalled key "tripwires." Negotiations are still attempting to break the deadlock, but time is very tight.

Brian Gardner, Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel Financial, stated that for the bill to pass in 2026, "it may be necessary to secure Senate approval by the end of July, preferably in June," and warned that if the Senate misses the recess, the outlook will significantly worsen.

However, the market is not holding much hope for the bill passing this year. Alex Thorn, head of Galaxy Research, on June 5 lowered the probability of the bill passing in 2026 from 75% to 60%, citing the increasingly tight Senate schedule. Prediction market Polymarket indicates that the likelihood of the bill passing this year is only 40%.

2. What Happens if the CLARITY Act Fails to Pass on Time?

According to an analysis by CCN, if the CLARITY Act cannot pass before the August recess, the most likely market reaction is not a crash, but rather a "slow bleed through premium products." In fact, the poor performance of cryptocurrency throughout June indicates that the market has begun to reprice for legislative uncertainty. (Note from Odaily: the premium products here mainly refer to various spot ETFs)

Data shows that throughout June, approximately $4.5 billion net outflow occurred from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, equivalent to about 77,000 BTC being redeemed; this marks the largest single-month net outflow since the product's launch in January 2024, surpassing the previous record of February 2025 (around $3.56 billion), setting a historical worst monthly record.

In fact, XRP may be one of the assets most directly and significantly impacted by the bill, as the legislation would permanently classify it as a commodity, eliminating reversible institutional interpretation risks. If delayed long-term or failed, XRP may lose some "regulatory favorable premium."

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of global digital asset research at Standard Chartered, predicts a target price of $8 for XRP, contingent on the Senate fully passing the related legislation, along with $4 billion to $8 billion of ETF capital inflow. JPMorgan predicts that if the legislation passes, XRP ETFs will see inflows of $4.3 billion to $8.4 billion in the first year. Data shows that since the launch of XRP spot ETFs in November 2025, there have been cumulative net inflows of approximately $1.41 billion, of which 84% came from retail, while institutional inflows are still waiting for clear regulatory signals.

For Bitcoin, it has been classified as a commodity through a joint interpretation by the SEC and CFTC since March 2026, and the main role of the CLARITY Act is to permanently solidify this reversible decision into federal law. Even if the legislation fails or is delayed for the long term, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" remains relatively robust and is less directly impacted.

The effect on ETH is similar to Bitcoin, as Ethereum has also been jointly classified as a commodity, and the failure of the legislation may lead to DeFi protocols facing longer periods of regulatory ambiguity, suppressing innovation and capital inflow. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick expects a target price of $7,500 for ETH by the end of 2026 (later revised to $4,000), provided the relevant legislation is passed.

Kristin Smith, director of the Solana Policy Research Institute, states that many asset allocators are actively exploring investments in digital assets, but are holding off on deploying funds due to unclear regulatory guidelines. The same logic applies to institutional DeFi, where current DeFi projects are also on hold waiting for the introduction of Section 604.

3. What Lies Ahead?

Time is running out for the CLARITY Act to make it through, and several scenarios may unfold next:

• First, passage before the August recess: the biggest catalyst, with a significant price rebound likely, especially for XRP and related ETFs;
• Second, delay until 2027: the scenario the market is least willing to see, extending the "slow bleed" process, with institutional capital remaining on the sidelines;
• Third, failure and pushing to the next session: The CLARITY Act is currently in the 119th Congress. If it does not complete Senate floor voting, coordination, and final passage before the August 2026 recess, the entire process cannot conclude in this Congress; upon the start of the new Congress (the 120th, 2027-2028), the bill must be reintroduced and navigate through all procedures of committee review and floor debate again.

The CLARITY Act is currently at a critical stage of "almost but stuck," technically having entered the Senate calendar, but political negotiations, time windows, and bipartisan support remain the biggest obstacles.

However, as Vincent Chok, CEO of First Digital, stated: "The entry of the CLARITY Act into Senate floor voting itself indicates that the U.S. is closer than ever to resolving regulatory ambiguities... A successful vote will accelerate this process, but failure will not necessarily halt it. In fact, delays in the U.S. framework may create a sense of urgency and extend the time window for setting global standards, with the U.S. potentially becoming the de facto global digital asset center."

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。