The current market is revaluing around the largest IPO in history that SpaceX may encounter. Most investors are focused on its target valuation of about $1.75 trillion, but what might be more notable is that the growth narrative it represents is changing. As SpaceX acquires xAI, the market begins to view it as a platform asset covering AI, global connectivity networks, and space infrastructure, rather than just a rocket company.

From the perspective of market pricing, the SpaceX Pre-IPO perpetual contract prices on Binance and Hyperliquid are already trading at a premium of about 34% over the $1.75 trillion target valuation, corresponding to an implied market value of about $2.3 trillion. The market is pricing in a larger story in advance, and investors need to assess whether this narrative is sufficient to support such a high valuation level.

From a Rocket Company to an Infrastructure Platform: The Valuation Logic of SpaceX is Being Restructured

The combination of SpaceX and xAI pushes its total addressable market (TAM) to about $28.5 trillion. Among this, the market size related to AI is about $26.5 trillion, global connectivity networks around $1.6 trillion, while traditional space business itself is only about $0.4 trillion.

This means that the current market is not truly pricing Martian exploration, but rather the broader infrastructure values like data centers, AI, and global communication networks. As SpaceX's core asset, Starlink is expected to achieve $11.4 billion in revenue by 2025, a 50% year-on-year growth, with an EBITDA margin of 63%. However, its average revenue per user (ARPU) has decreased from $99 three years ago to $66. Whether future user growth can sync with profitability will be a crucial factor in determining valuation.

Meanwhile, SpaceX's current valuation corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of about 100 times, far exceeding most large tech companies. Such a high valuation level not only requires continuous reinforcement of the growth narrative but also demands the company to maintain very strong execution capacity in the coming years.

Behind the High Valuation: IPO Liquidity and Space Economy Expansion Expectations

Since 2002, SpaceX has raised a cumulative amount of only about $12 billion in the primary market, while this IPO is expected to raise about $86 billion and may bring approximately $800 million in underwriting revenue to Wall Street. At the same time, in March 2026, SpaceX signed a $20 billion bridge loan to refinance high-yield debt related to X and xAI, which also gives significance to this listing in optimizing its balance sheet.

It is noteworthy that SpaceX employs a relatively flexible lock-up period arrangement. Some early investors will be able to sell up to 20% of their eligible shares after the first quarterly report is released, and if the stock price rises by 30% over the issue price, additional shares will also be unlocked. This means the market will face ongoing liquidity tests after the IPO, explaining why the narrative around SpaceX needs to be continuously reinforced to handle future potential supply pressure.

From a longer-term perspective, the core bet of the market remains the expansion of the space economy. Mainstream forecasts suggest that the global space economy is expected to grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2033. As launch costs continue to decline, the synergies between satellite networks, orbital data, and AI applications are increasingly strengthening, and true value may gradually concentrate more on the platform and application layers.

Overall, SpaceX's current valuation reflects high market expectations, and maintaining valuation discipline remains very important in the short term. For investors, the focus may not be limited to SpaceX itself, but rather on the long-term mainline it represents: the increasingly enhanced integration trends between AI, global connectivity networks, space infrastructure, and digital assets. If this trend continues to evolve, related listed companies and space economy-themed assets could become important windows for observing this narrative.

The above opinions are partially sourced from BIT on Target, contact us for the complete report of BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks; invest cautiously. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting financial professionals. BIT does not take responsibility for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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