The current market is in a macro re-pricing phase dominated by geopolitical factors and policy expectations. At the beginning of the US-China summit, it was once interpreted by the market as a signal of easing relations between the two countries, with tech stocks rising, the dollar weakening, and Bitcoin rising accordingly. The market originally anticipated a relief in tariff pressures, stabilization of AI supply chains, and a decrease in relevant geopolitical risks concerning Taiwan and Iran, resulting in a rapid increase in risk-on sentiment.

However, as the details of the summit were gradually disclosed, the market realized that the previous optimistic pricing lacked sufficient support: there was no substantial easing of tariff policies, no breakthroughs in AI export controls, and no significant progress on the Taiwan and Iran issues. Inflation concerns further evolved into expectations of policy tightening, leading to renewed selling pressure on bonds and precious metals.

From a long-term perspective, this summit reflects several key clues worth noting: the marginal weakening of the dollar's dominance, diversification of global reserve asset allocations, restructuring of AI and semiconductor supply chains, and the ongoing deepening of strategic competition between the US and China in frontier technological fields like low-Earth orbit satellites and space.

From Risk-On to Re-Pricing: The Market Begins to Return to Inflation and Geopolitical Logic

Prior to the summit, the market was trading on the "easing relations" logic. Tech stocks and commodities rose, the dollar weakened, and Bitcoin rebounded, showing a clear recovery in market risk appetite. Particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors, the market originally expected that the US might approve chip sales to China through Nvidia, releasing a certain goodwill, and thereby promoting easing on broader issues between the two sides. However, as the results of the summit were further digested, market sentiment quickly cooled. Tariff pressures did not see substantial easing, and the sales of approved chips like the Nvidia H200 had not truly materialized; meanwhile, Beijing continued to push for local alternatives in AI and reduce dependence on external AI chips.

More importantly, critical geopolitical risks concerning Taiwan and Iran had not been resolved. Consequently, the market recalibrated to incorporate the risk that oil prices and inflationary pressures may persist longer, resulting in continued global bond sell-offs and rising real yields that also dragged down gold and silver performance. In the short term, this summit is favorable for oil prices, bearish for gold and sovereign bonds; while Bitcoin once again demonstrated its characteristics as a "macroeconomic liquidity asset."

The issue is that Bitcoin has not been priced as a "structural safe-haven asset" in the short term, but rather remains primarily influenced by real yields, risk appetite, and liquidity conditions, exhibiting performance more akin to a high beta Nasdaq rather than "digital gold." This also means that, in macro events like the US-China summit, Bitcoin often behaves more like a risk asset than a traditional safe-haven asset.

From Agricultural Procurement to Space Competition: The Long-Term Competitive Landscape Continues to Deepen

In addition to macro pricing, this summit further reflects that the long-term competitive framework between the US and China has not changed. In terms of agricultural procurement, China has committed to purchasing at least $17 billion of US agricultural products annually from 2026 to 2028, slightly above the lower end of market expectations but below the optimistic scenarios previously betted on by some traders.

However, the market's reaction was limited. The reason is that China’s new import demand remains constrained, with Brazilian agricultural products continuing to pressure US suppliers due to price advantages. Additionally, since the first round of the trade war initiated by Trump, Beijing has been continuously promoting diversification of agricultural import sources to reduce dependency on US agricultural products. Some positive news had already been priced in. China had previously promised to purchase 25 million tonnes of US soybeans, so the additional space that could be released from this summit was relatively limited. In contrast, fertilizer stocks have become one of the few moderately benefiting sectors, supported by the agricultural procurement commitments and the supply disruptions triggered by the Iran conflict.

At the same time, US-China technological competition is extending further into low-Earth orbit satellites and space infrastructure. China is building a low-Earth orbit satellite constellation to compete with Starlink, but it still lags behind SpaceX in scale and capability. The market believes that if SpaceX secures more capital support through an IPO in the future, its expansion speed may further widen the gap with Chinese competitors.

Overall, although this summit released some phased achievements, including moderate trade commitments and continuation of subsequent dialogue mechanisms, structural contradictions have not truly eased. The US and China appear to be "managing competition" rather than "solving competition": both sides maintain sufficient contact to avoid further escalation, but this is far from enough to change the long-term direction. Against this backdrop, trends of diversification in global reserve assets, restructuring of AI supply chains, and the long-term trend of geopolitical risks are continuing. For the market, the truly important variables are no longer just the summit itself but the re-pricing of global liquidity, real yields, and the long-term strategic competitive landscape.

Some of the above views come from BIT on Target, Contact Us for the full report of BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: Markets involve risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.

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