1. Market Overview: Volatile Recovery, Increasing Divergence

Today is May 25, 2026, Monday. Bitcoin has rebounded above $77,000, rising 0.33% in 24 hours, having dipped below $75,000 over the weekend before recovering. Ethereum is around $2,100, down 0.94%, clearly weaker than Bitcoin.

The sector divergence is significant: the RWA sector leads (+1.92%), ONDO rises 3.58%; the AI sector plummets 9.29%, DePIN falls 6.36%; the NFT sector drops 4.18%. The market cap of HYPE surpasses DOGE, rising to ninth place.

2. News

Positive News:

U.S. Congress Reintroduces Bitcoin Reserve Bill: The Republican Party plans to establish a national-level BTC reserve, aiming to hold 5% of the global circulation, strengthening the 'digital gold' narrative.

South Korea Petitions to Abolish Crypto Tax: 50,000 signatures have reached the threshold, and it has entered the parliamentary discussion agenda.

Russia Expands Mining Regulation: New regulations require ASIC miners to report network addresses, aiming to strengthen tax oversight, which is not bearish.

Negative News/Risks:

SEC Halts Tokenized Stock Exemption: The innovative exemption originally set to launch this week was temporarily halted, resulting in over $320 million in liquidations on May 22 (of which $296 million were long positions), with BTC briefly dropping to $76,000.

CFTC Personnel Issues Regarding Oversight: Multiple officials questioning crypto regulation of Polymarket and others have been suspended, and enforcement actions have sharply decreased from over 80 during Biden's presidency to just 2.

StablR Attacked: The stablecoin issuer had its private key leaked, with hackers stealing about $2.8 million, causing EURR/USDR to decouple.

3. Policy Dynamics

The CLARITY Act is still under review, but the SEC's halt of the tokenized stock exemption indicates a cautious regulatory stance, necessitating a repricing of compliance expectations in the short term.

Russia has expanded the scope of mining reporting, requiring ASIC miners to report network addresses, with the Federal Tax Service responsible for maintaining the registry.

4. On-Chain Data: Structural Bullish Signals Strengthen

1. Exchange Reserves Drop to Multi-Year Lows

Total reserves fell to 2.21 million BTC, the lowest in seven to nine years. In March, there was a historical outflow of 32,000 BTC in a single day, and the supply side continues to tighten.

2. Whales Accelerate Accumulation

Addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have seen a net increase of about 270,000 BTC in the past 30 days, the largest monthly increase since 2013. During the same period, retail BTC deposits on Binance fell to an average of about 314 BTC, indicating that chips are concentrating towards large holders.

Chu Yuechen: May 25 Bitcoin ETH Market Analysis and Trading Reference

The current situation is that large holders are accumulating, but market sentiment is not high, and it may remain volatile in the short term. There is strong resistance above at 77,500–78,500, and the daily Bollinger Band middle track support is between 72,500–73,000. Therefore, without strong stimulus, Bitcoin will likely maintain this range of volatility in the short term.

Additionally, U.S.-Iran negotiations are also a factor affecting prices. Trump is facing mid-term elections and wants to boost his approval ratings, so he is releasing positive signals. However, we should see the essence clearly; their differences are significant, and the supposed negotiating variables are also quite large, with both sides holding their own agendas. Once a breakdown occurs, the crypto market, as a risk asset, will inevitably be affected.

Moreover, the current U.S. inflation is 3.8%, far exceeding 2%, and economically speaking, it has been confirmed that there will be no interest rate cuts in 2026, and on the contrary, there is a possibility of further rate hikes, which is also an unfavorable factor for the crypto market.

Therefore, in the short term, I am still not optimistic about the cryptocurrency breaking upward strongly to restart a bull market; the road ahead is long. Everyone should not get carried away and make long-term plans. Especially for those trading spot, they can accumulate at lower prices to prepare for the next bull market.

For short-term contracts, as mentioned earlier, do not be greedy for points and do good stop-loss management; this market can be navigated well. Today we choose to short near 77,500, with an opportunity to add another short position above 78,000, a stop-loss at 78,600, and the target remains at the 75,000 level. Of course, when there are profits, we can exit in a timely manner; for our short positions, Bitcoin can be closed around 1,000 points. Just wait patiently to enter again.

As for ETH, it is even weaker, facing pressure around 2,150; directly short at 2,100–2,130, and add to the short position above 2,150, stop-loss at 2,200, target 2,000.

Well, that’s all for today. I will provide timely entry and exit tips for friends following my trades. Friends who wish to exchange trading strategies can message me privately.

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