Today, market sentiment is complex, with two heavy news items forming a stark contrast. On one hand, U.S. lawmakers officially proposed writing strategic Bitcoin reserves into law, which is a strong long-term policy advantage that provides legitimacy and confidence support for Bitcoin as a national reserve asset. On the other hand, the Trump Media Group deposited 2,650 Bitcoins worth over $200 million into exchanges, and such large transfers often indicate potential selling pressure, creating a clear short-term bearish signal. Amid the intertwining forces of bulls and bears, BTC is currently quoted at 77,806 USDT, and we need to use data to decode the real direction.

Current Price and Time

The current time is May 22, 11:34, and the BTC price is reported at 77,806 USDT. The 24-hour decline is 0.26%, and the fear and greed index is only 28, placing the market in a state of extreme fear. BTC's market share maintains at 58.14%, indicating that funds are still consolidating among mainstream coins, but sentiment is weak.

Multi-Period State Overview

On the daily chart, MA5 is at 77,362, MA10 is at 78,193, and MA30 is at 78,759. The price is between the three moving averages, presenting a weak oscillation pattern. The MACD histogram is -525.89, DIF is 140.44, and DEA is 666.33, with the death cross status continuing and bearish momentum still being released. RSI is at 39.99, in a weak area but not yet in an oversold condition.

On the 4-hour chart, MA5 is at 77,512, MA10 is at 77,620, and MA30 is at 77,354. The price runs above MA10, indicating signs of stabilization in the short term. The MACD histogram is 131.42, DIF is -83.44, and DEA is -214.87, with DIF crossing above DEA forming a golden cross, which is a bullish signal on the 4-hour level. RSI is at 64.66, in a neutral to strong area.

On the 1-hour level, MA5 is at 77,616, MA10 is at 77,616, and MA30 is at 77,604, with the three moving averages nearly overlapping, and the price running above the averages. The MACD histogram is 22.56, DIF is 48.33, and DEA is 25.78, with the golden cross status continuing, and bullish momentum is moderate. RSI is at 62.70, in a neutral to strong area. EMA55 is at 77,436, and the current price of 77,806 is significantly above this line.

On the 15-minute level, MA5 is at 77,723, MA10 is at 77,656, and MA30 is at 77,636, with the price running above the averages. The MACD histogram is 27.12, DIF is 42.23, and DEA is 15.11, with the golden cross status, but RSI is at 74.46, nearing the overbought area, indicating short-term demand for a pullback.

TPV Signal Verification

According to the Qinglan TPV system, we use the 1-hour EMA55 as the boundary between bulls and bears. The current price of 77,806 is much higher than the EMA55 of 77,436, and the system determines it to be in a bullish trend area.

Long Position Condition Verification: First, the price stabilizes above the 1H EMA55; in the past 8 one-hour candlesticks, the closing price greater than EMA55 occurred 7 times, with crossovers 2 times, satisfying the condition of closing prices above EMA55 for 2 consecutive candlesticks. Second, regarding stabilization support, the price shows a golden cross on the 4-hour level and there is support near the daily MA5, but the 15-minute RSI is relatively high, indicating potential pullback in the short term, with unclear support shape. Third, the downward momentum is exhausted; the MACD histogram is positive on both the 1-hour and 4-hour levels and continues to expand, indicating no exhaustion of momentum but rather an increase. In summary, some conditions for going long are met, but the momentum aspect does not meet exhaustion criteria, and the system suggests that we may currently be in a unilateral trend.

Short Position Condition Verification: First, the price is under pressure below the 1H EMA55; the current price is above EMA55, which does not satisfy this condition. Second, meeting resistance, the price faces pressure near the daily MA10 and MA30 but has not formed an obvious top divergence. Third, the rebound lacks strength, with the MACD histogram being positive and expanding on both the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, indicating ample rebound momentum. The short position conditions are not established.

Dealing with Oscillating Markets: In the past 8 one-hour candlesticks, the closing price greater than EMA55 occurred 7 times, with crossovers 2 times. The price’s amplitude from EMA55 is 0.48%, exceeding the 0.3% threshold, and the system determines that current conditions do not meet oscillation criteria, likely remaining in a unilateral trend. Therefore, we focus on the bullish trend but must watch for short-term pullback risks.

On-Chain/Fund Flow

In terms of on-chain data, the fear and greed index is 28, with market sentiment in extreme fear, which is often a signal of bottom regions, but short-term volatility may increase. Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. saw a net outflow of 942 BTC in a single day, while Ethereum ETF saw an outflow of 15,222 ETH, with institutional funds continuously fleeing, suppressing the price. The Trump Media Group deposited 2,650 BTC into exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure. Federal Reserve's Waller is sworn in tonight, with the market anticipating interest rate hikes, leading to tighter liquidity that poses risks to risk assets. The draft agreement between the U.S. and Iran has been reached, easing geopolitical risks, which could boost risk appetite. With conflicting bullish and bearish factors, the fund flow leans bearish, but favorable long-term policies exist.

Key Attack and Defense Levels

Upper resistance level: The daily MA10 is at 78,193, and MA30 is at 78,759, which is the key short-term resistance area. If it breaks above 78,759, it may open an upward space towards the 80,000 integer mark. Lower support level: The 1-hour EMA55 is at 77,436, which is the lifeline for bulls. If it drops below 77,436, the system will turn to oscillation or bearish territory, with further support at the 4-hour MA30 of 77,354 and the daily MA5 of 77,362. Further support below is at the 77,000 integer mark.

Trading Thoughts

Direction: The current system determines it to be a bullish trend area, but short-term 15-minute RSI is relatively high, and ETF capital outflows along with large deposits in exchanges constitute negative factors, hence we focus on cautious longs, avoiding chasing high prices, and waiting for pullback stabilization.

Entry Conditions: Wait for the price to pull back to the vicinity of the 1-hour EMA55, around the 77,400-77,500 range, and observe whether support stabilization signals such as long lower shadows or bottom divergences appear. At the same time, if the MACD histogram on the 1-hour level shortens for 2 consecutive cycles or if RSI falls from a high position below 50, meeting the conditions for downward momentum exhaustion, then it can be considered for a long entry. If the price directly breaks through 78,759 and stabilizes, consideration can be given to chasing long, but strict stop-loss is needed.

Stop-Loss Level: After entering a long position, set the stop-loss at 77,200, which is below the support area of the daily MA5 and the 4-hour MA30. If the price drops below the EMA55 of 77,436 and closes below this line for 2 consecutive 1-hour candlesticks, the system will turn bearish, and an immediate exit is necessary.

Target Levels: The first target is 78,200, near the daily MA10. The second target is 78,800, near the daily MA30. If market sentiment improves, watching towards the 80,000 integer mark is possible.

Risk Warning

Current bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, with ETF capital flight and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve creating short-term pressure, while favorable policies and alleviated geopolitical risks provide support. Please strictly control positions to avoid overexposure when chasing highs.

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