Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)
In the current cryptocurrency market, if there’s a single altcoin that can excite the market, it’s probably HYPE.
Market data shows that the HYPE to BTC and BNB exchange rates continue to set historical highs, with HYPE/BTC currently at 0.0006249 and HYPE/BNB at 0.075. This indicates that HYPE's strength is not merely following the market rebound, but is consistently outperforming major crypto assets like BTC and BNB.
In the past, the external understanding of Hyperliquid was largely limited to high-performance Perp DEX. However, now it is clear that the funds are not just buying a token for a decentralized trading platform, but are betting on Hyperliquid's ability to incorporate more asset types, more liquidity, and more trading scenarios into a single on-chain trading system.
The price performance of HYPE is also indicative of the market's reevaluation of Hyperliquid's value.
In this article, Odaily Planet Daily will analyze the logic behind its rise from several key changes.
From THYP to BHYP, HYPE's compliant buying is now opening up
The first external catalyst for HYPE's recent rise is the opening of the ETF channel.
Currently, two asset management firms have begun to launch ETF products focusing on Hyperliquid. On May 12, 21Shares listed the Hyperliquid ETF, code THYP; on May 15, Bitwise listed the Hyperliquid ETF, code BHYP. Data shows that as of May 18, Eastern Time, 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF THYP has seen a total net inflow of $12.901 million; Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF BHYP has seen a total net inflow of $2.0446 million.
More importantly, Bitwise is not stopping at issuing ETFs. Yesterday, Bitwise announced that it would allocate 10% of the management fee income from the BHYP Hyperliquid ETF to hold HYPE on the company's balance sheet, and the related HYPE holdings will also be staked.
This shifts the ETF narrative from merely launching products to potential ongoing buying. The larger the ETF scale, the higher the management fee income, theoretically increasing the amount that Bitwise can use to increase HYPE holdings. In the short term, this portion of funds may not immediately influence the price; but in the long term, it connects ETF growth, asset management income, and HYPE holdings together.
In other words, ETFs bring HYPE not just a one-time spike in interest, but a new funding channel. HYPE is beginning to transition from a crypto-native asset to a token for an on-chain trading platform that traditional funds can also participate in pricing.
USDC returning to Hyperliquid adds over $400,000 potential buying daily for HYPE
The second reason for HYPE’s recent rise is that after USDC returns to Hyperliquid, the market starts to reassess the stable returns the protocol can obtain in the future, and whether this income can continue to flow into HYPE repurchases.
According to Hyperliquid's official announcement, Coinbase will serve as the capital deployer, while Circle is responsible for CCTP and native cross-chain infrastructure deployment; both parties have committed to staking HYPE to activate AQAv2. This means that the return of USDC is not just an ordinary stablecoin integration but establishes a new mechanism around native USDC, cross-chain liquidity, and reserve income distribution involving Coinbase, Circle, and Hyperliquid.
The key is that Coinbase will share most of the USDC reserve income with the Hyperliquid protocol moving forward. Although the specific revenue-sharing ratio has not yet been disclosed, if we reference the previous USDH income distribution mechanism, Hyperliquid might actually receive approximately 90% of the reserve income. Therefore, the market interprets AQAv2 as a kind of protocol sharing mechanism for Hyperliquid’s USDC reserve income.
According to community estimates, assuming a scale of $4.7 billion and an annualized return of 3.8%, the USDC reserve income corresponds to approximately $160 million in annual revenue, which translates to about $440,000 daily buying for HYPE repurchase. Once the AQAv2 interface is perfected and officially operational, Hyperliquid will no longer rely solely on transaction fees to buy back HYPE, but may also have a relatively stable cash flow source.
This is also where the return of USDC truly impacts HYPE's pricing. Previously, the strength of HYPE's buyback mainly depended on transaction volume; the more active the trades, the stronger the protocol's revenue and repurchase ability. But with the addition of USDC reserve income, HYPE's buying sources are no longer solely reliant on transaction fees but also start to depend on how much stablecoin capital Hyperliquid can accumulate. In other words, transaction fee repurchases represent platform trading activity, while USDC reserve income repurchases reflect the platform's capital accumulation ability. The market's repricing of HYPE may be due to the realization that HYPE's buyback story is no longer solely dependent on trading fervor.
Hyperliquid connects to HIP-4 to capture prediction market business
Apart from RWA, Hyperliquid is also extending its reach into this year's hottest track in the crypto space——prediction markets.
On May 2, Hyperliquid launched HIP-4 Outcome Markets on the mainnet, initially offering BTC intraday binary outcome contracts. Simply put, users can trade whether the BTC price will exceed a specified price at a certain time, with contract prices fluctuating between 0.001 and 0.999, corresponding to market pricing of the probability of the event occurring; a settlement post-event yields 1, while non-occurrence results in 0.
Predictefy data shows that on the first day of HIP-4's launch, the trading volume of BTC price-related event contracts reached $6.15 million, and in this niche market alone, Hyperliquid's trading volume far exceeded that of Kalshi, Polymarket, and other similar markets.
For HYPE, the significance of HIP-4 is not just the addition of a product feature, but the integration of prediction markets with HYPE's staking, fees, and buyback mechanisms. According to the design, when deploying permissionless prediction events in the future, market creators will need to stake 1 million HYPE, which is higher than the 500,000 HYPE required for deploying perpetual markets in HIP-3. Each staking position can support rolling and periodic markets, and can be reused after settlement; if problems such as oracle manipulation, abnormal market conditions, or long-term outages occur, the staked assets may also be forfeited.
Therefore, HIP-4 brings to HYPE not a mere enhancement of the prediction market concept, but a more direct path for value capture. More permissionless prediction events translate to greater demand for HYPE staking, and increased trading volume means more fee income, which will ultimately be reintegrated into Hyperliquid's original buyback logic.
RWA open interest hits new highs, Hyperliquid's potential ceiling extends beyond Perp DEX
In addition to ETFs and USDC earnings returning, RWA is continuing to expand Hyperliquid’s trading boundaries.
Data shows that the RWA open interest on the Hyperliquid platform has risen to $2.6 billion, hitting a historical high and doubling compared to two months ago. This data indicates that Hyperliquid is now accommodating not only the trading demand for crypto assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL, but also real-world assets are beginning to form a scale within its on-chain trading system.
This is crucial for HYPE's pricing. If Hyperliquid were merely a Perp DEX, the market's valuation anchor would primarily still rely on crypto cycles, trading volumes, and fee incomes. However, RWA opens another level of opportunity, where stocks, commodities, precious metals, and pre-IPO assets could all become targets for 24/7 on-chain trading.
The significance of RWA to Hyperliquid lies not in merely opening a few trading pairs, but in pulling the platform out of internal competition within the crypto market. Competition among Perp DEXs is about who can capture more crypto trading volume, while RWA competes on who can bring off-chain asset trading demands on-chain. If Hyperliquid can continue to expand this part of the market, HYPE's pricing will no longer only follow the trading cycles of the crypto market but will begin to bind itself to greater real asset trading demands.
US SEC plans to introduce tokenized stock exemptions, adding imagination to RWA narrative
The potential loosening of regulations by the US SEC on tokenized stocks is also continuing to elevate Hyperliquid's long-term ceiling. Reports indicate that the US SEC is preparing to launch innovative exemptions for trading tokenized stocks, allowing tokens linked to publicly traded company stocks to trade on crypto platforms. In certain scenarios, relevant platforms may not need to fully obtain broker-dealer or exchange registration, and tokenized stocks issued by third parties may not even require consent from the listed companies.
The significance of this to Hyperliquid is not about starting from scratch in tokenized stocks but rather enriching the regulatory imagination surrounding the RWA direction it is already advancing. On the Hyperliquid platform, trades of stocks, pre-IPO assets, and other real-world assets are already beginning to form a scale, and RWA open interest has also reached new highs. If US regulators truly open a trial window for tokenized stocks, this kind of on-chain trading demand may be further amplified.
For Hyperliquid, the clearer the regulatory boundaries, the less resistance there may be to on-chain trading of real assets; and those who can absorb the incremental demand are often not individual asset issuers, but platforms capable of handling order books, liquidity, and settlements. If tokenized stocks transition from gray area trials to compliant increments, the RWA business that Hyperliquid has already initiated will no longer just be an early attempt but may become the main battlefield for the next round of on-chain trading competition.
Fundamentals are still strengthening, but the short-term has entered a tug-of-war zone
The logic behind HYPE's rise is becoming clearer. ETFs have opened compliant funding channels, USDC's return brings potential repurchase increments, and RWA, prediction markets, and tokenized stocks continue to broaden Hyperliquid's trading boundaries; these changes all point in one direction — Hyperliquid is no longer just a Perp DEX but is expanding into a larger on-chain trading system.
However, just because the long-term logic holds does not mean that short-term prices will always trend upward. According to on-chain data, HYPE is currently experiencing a large-scale confrontation between whales, with the TOP1 and TOP2 whale positions acting as counter-parties, totaling over $60 million. Bulls are looking at Hyperliquid's future growth potential, while bears are betting on the pressure for a correction after a rapid short-term increase. As the whale positions grow larger, HYPE's short-term price may not just be determined by fundamentals but will also be influenced by leverage liquidations, funding rates, and market sentiment.
Therefore, predicting HYPE's short-term price trajectory is difficult; it largely depends on who is forced out first in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. However, when looking at the long term, HYPE's fundamentals remain worthy of market optimism. Hyperliquid continues to expand its trading assets, funding channels, and revenue sources, and HYPE is further taking on a core value carrier role in buybacks, staking, and fee capture.
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