At the end of last year, besides Google, the only Crypto concept stock I bought was when AI + Nano Payments broke 100, I also slightly increased my holdings.

I think there is hope for doubling recently $CRCL

Previously, the market viewed Circle’s positioning as more of:

1) USDC issuer;

2) Earning interest on stablecoin reserves;

3) Highly affected by interest rates, regulation, and Coinbase sharing.

In the past few days, the market suddenly started to price it according to another story: stablecoin issuer + institutional-grade public chain + tokenization infrastructure + AI Agent payment layer

This is the core of the rise.

1️⃣ What areas of value reconstruction led to the market's peak?

Arc transformed Circle from a "stablecoin company" into a "public chain platform company"

Especially yesterday, Arc @arc Circle announced ARC Token presale financing of 222 million dollars, Arc Network's fully diluted valuation is 3 billion dollars,

The participants basically gathered the big players in the circle: including a16z crypto, BlackRock, Apollo Funds, ARK Invest, ICE, SBI, Standard Chartered Ventures, etc.

BlackRock, Cathie Wood, Standard Chartered, SBI, ICE, wow!

This has a direct stimulatory effect on the market: the feeling that the settlement chain of the USDC ecosystem is very imminent makes everyone naturally excited.

Arc's positioning is as an institutional Layer 1, compatible with EVM, natively integrated with USDC, aiming to service stablecoins, tokenized assets, on-chain markets, and global settlement.

Circle itself calls it the Economic OS of the internet economy.

This is where the valuation reconstruction occurs.

If Arc really takes off, Circle will not only earn reserve interest but could also participate in: stablecoin transfers, institutional settlements, on-chain asset issuance, tokenization, AI Agent payments, protocol fees, governance, staking, ecosystem incentives.

This has a much larger imagination space than that of a "stablecoin issuer".

So previously, Circle's series of actions, including my analysis last year of their layout in AI AGENT’s lightning transfers and the compliance operations in stablecoins and institutional settlements, were all preparatory work.

2️⃣ The market is trading on the "implied asset value" of the ARC Token

According to the published white paper, the initial supply of ARC is 10 billion tokens, it states in the white paper: 60% for the ecosystem, 25% for Circle, 15% for long-term reserves.

Based on this $3 billion FDV estimation, Circles' 25% corresponds to an imagined book value of about:

$3 billion × 25% = $750 million

Is it expensive? It's too cheap!

3️⃣ What to watch next?

Overall, the market is redefining Circle from a "stablecoin company earning US Treasury interest" to a "financial operating system company for the stablecoin era."

However, the current market rise is largely driven by sentiment, whether it can be sustained, I will mainly observe three points:

1) Whether USDC circulation can continue to grow;

2) Whether Circle's RLDC / EBITDA profit margin can be maintained;

3) Whether there are real institutional assets and payment flow after the Arc mainnet launch;

4) The implementation of regulatory and policy directions.

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