Currently, the global macro core variable focuses on the US-Iran geopolitical game, with both sides' negotiations stuck in a deadlock, continually bringing uncertainty disturbances to the capital markets.
The US side's attitude is tough; Trump stated in a recent interview that the US holds an absolute advantage in the US-Iran negotiations, demanding Iran to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile and give up control of the Strait of Hormuz, indicating strong pressure. The second round of negotiations originally planned to be led by US Vice President Pence to Islamabad was ultimately shelved due to Iran's clear refusal to attend.
In addition, the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, which expires on April 22, is fraught with variables. The US unilaterally extended the ceasefire period, but the core differences between both sides remain unresolved, and the confrontation pattern in the Middle East remains tense.
Driven by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, shipping restrictions, and supply concerns, international oil prices continue to rise. As of now, the price of Brent crude oil has risen to 106.01 dollars per barrel, steadily increasing during the day and up nearly 59% compared to last year. The continuous surge in oil prices further exacerbates global inflation pressures, intensifying the volatility of major assets and indirectly bringing complex bidirectional impacts to risk assets.
In the current rebound of Bitcoin, short positions have concentrated and cleared, with short-term selling pressure temporarily released, but there are obvious shortcomings in the logic of the upward movement. According to data from CryptoQuant, this round of price increase is not supported by a substantial increase in spot buying, and the core driving force comes from a concentrated short squeeze of nearly 1.19 billion dollars in the futures market.
The rally overly reliant on derivatives is weak in stability and can easily experience a tide of sentiment retreating and a reversal in the market. Currently, Bitcoin is significantly pressured at the 80,000 dollar round number, with upward momentum gradually exhausting, and the long-short game tends toward balance.
Key resistance and support zones are clear:
Upper core resistance: 78,500—79,000 dollars, this interval is heavily pressured, making it difficult for bulls to sustain a breakthrough;
Short-term reasonable pullback: If pressured down, priority should be given to the 76,000—76,500 dollars phase support;
Key defensive position: 75,000—75,500 dollars, if effectively broken below, the short-term ascending structure will be damaged, potentially opening a downward trend.
In the short-term market rhythm, the latest developments in the US-Iran situation over the weekend will become an important catalyst for the short-term market. However, the market has already fully digested the expectations of geopolitical conflict, and the unilateral impact brought by news is relatively limited, with the overall focus remaining on technical pressure for a pullback and oscillatory digestion.
From the weekly level structure, this fourth wave rebound has entered the final stage, with volume continuously shrinking, and upward momentum gradually weakening, with mid-term topping signals gradually accumulating.
As the US-Iran situation fluctuates and market optimism is fully released, the probability of Bitcoin testing the 80,000 dollar level and then oscillating downwards is high. Coupled with multiple negative signals resonance: options worth 8.47 billion dollars expiring concentratedly, former 1.19 billion dollars short positions being cleaned out, insufficient support in the spot market, and the gradual convergence of futures spot premiums, multiple data jointly confirm that this phase of rising market has approached its end.
If there is no incremental spot funds continuously entering the market or failing to stabilize above 80,000 dollars, the weekly level of phase rebound will likely declare an end, and the market will return to an adjustment cycle, with the core oscillation zone locked at 75,000—76,000 dollars. From a mid-term perspective, the market will switch from being dominated by bulls to a weak oscillation pattern.
Short positions positioned near 78,000 dollars have slightly taken profits and exited. The market has gone through repeated oscillations, completing a cycle of alternating profits and losses. Currently, I temporarily remain in cash and wait patiently for the next opportunity. Friends who are still observing can keep an eye on the subsequent rhythm and wait for the next strategic signal.
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