Yesterday, the overall trend was focused on bearish movements, and the proposed range of 74000-75000 was never entered. My long position at 74100 is still alive in the market, and my current thought is to engage in contract trend trading. Trump released bearish signals for two consecutive days, yet Bitcoin did not break below the 75000 threshold, which is also good news in Lao Cui's eyes. There is no doubt that the current market is being manipulated by Trump; the blockade issue in the Strait of Hormuz remains in a swing state, and manipulating this kind of news will naturally bring him some benefits, which I won't elaborate on in the military aspect. However, a recent Goldman Sachs forecast material has caught Lao Cui's interest; the report pointed out that the current costs of crude oil and mineral prices have a lag period of 3-6 months. If it continues into Q2 2026, cost inflation will be directly triggered, which also indirectly indicates that military actions may indeed come to an end in the short term.

The arrival of inflation is a positive news for the domestic market; everyone can see from the data that the domestic first-quarter data performance is extremely good, and Goldman Sachs’ expectations for the domestic housing market are gradually improving. Those who patiently observe will find that housing prices in first-tier cities are experiencing some warming. I merely point this out to remind everyone that this data is only effective in the short term; the arrival of inflation will only enhance the data's performance. Enterprises that are almost unrelated to foreign trade are still hovering at the bottom, and users who have certain real estate should seize this opportunity. Returning to the cryptocurrency market, many lesser-known altcoins have recently performed strongly. This is a good validation of Lao Cui's prior estimates; based on observations of the previous crypto market, all bull markets almost always see small altcoins leading, with mainstream trends appearing later. The growth of small altcoins signifies retail investors' accumulation, and looking at the inflow data, this wave's bear market has already successfully hit the bottom.

Lao Cui summarizes: For spot users, there is not much more to discuss; those who should buy below 70,000 have already bought, and users who have not entered the market at this stage are likely unrelated to the next bull market. It is better to return to short-term contracts. Viewed from the daily level, a wave of growth has broken the entire daily structure, and the Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, with the price operating between the middle and upper bands. The upper resistance is at 78037, and KDJ formed a dead cross yesterday, which may indicate that a short-term pullback is imminent. The first support level for the short-term pullback is around 75000-75200, where bearish momentum will be stronger. In the RSI indicators, RSI1 and RSI2 stabilize above 60, but RSI3 is below 60, indicating that the signals of oversold and overbought are not strong, and the trends seem to be approaching normal thresholds, which may portend the stability of the short-term trend. Therefore, without news pressure, if it does not break the short-term support at 75000, one can choose to go long, as the current price appears to be a short-term low. The profit-taking position remains between 500-1000 points. In case of any news that disrupts the situation, such as Trump's manipulation taking effect or any changes, try to keep communication open with Lao Cui. Be cautious about the movements of the TRUMP coin; it can be dangerous.

Original content by WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks Coin. For assistance, please contact directly.

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