What to know : Bitcoin slipped to about $68,600 after a brief cease-fire-driven rally, extending a six-week pattern in which geopolitical headlines spark short-lived price moves within a $65,000 to $73,000 range. Monday's jump, fueled by reports of a potential 45-day cease-fire, triggered nearly $200 million in short liquidations before prices retreated as Iran reportedly rejected the proposal and demanded broader concessions. Traders are watching a Tuesday night deadline set by President Trump for Iran to accept a deal, as his threats of severe military action and rising oil prices add to macro uncertainty already clouded by mixed U.S. economic data and unclear Fed policy signals.
Bitcoin pulled back to $68,589 in Asian hours Tuesday after Monday's ceasefire-driven rally faded, as U.S. president Donald Trump set a Tuesday night deadline for Iran to agree to a deal and threatened to destroy "every bridge in Iran by 12 o'clock tomorrow night" if it does not.
The largest cryptocurrency is down 0.6% over 24 hours after touching $69,350 on Monday, when an Axios report about a potential 45-day ceasefire briefly pushed prices above $69,000. That optimism lasted about 12 hours. Ether fell 1% to $2,104, solana's SOL dropped 2.7% to $79.75, XRP lost 1.6% to $1.32, and dogecoin slid 2.2% to $0.09. BNB held relatively flat at $598.
The pattern of the past six weeks continued in textbook fashion, where positive headlines breifly boost prices before negative comments cull any chances of extended recovery.
"This move looks less like a shift in fundamentals and more like positioning getting caught offsides," said Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX. "Heading into the weekend, sentiment was heavily skewed bearish and short interest had built up across the market. Once ceasefire headlines hit, that positioning had to unwind."
Monday's bounce produced $196.7 million in short liquidations as bearish traders got caught by the ceasefire report. Tuesday's pullback arrived when Iran reportedly passed to mediator Pakistan a rejection of the ceasefire proposal, demanding a permanent end to the war, lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction efforts in addition to safe passage through Hormuz.
U.S. crude climbed above $112 as Trump warned the military could put every power plant in Iran "out of business" if no deal is reached, even as he said talks were "going well." Brent traded near $115.66, up 2.9% on the session. Elsehwhere, the S&P 500 posted its longest advance since January despite the whipsaw, with equities managing to hold small gains through the volatility.
The macro backdrop remains uncertain. U.S. services data showed the economy expanded at a slower pace in March, employment contracted at the sharpest rate since 2023, and input prices accelerated, a mix that gives the Fed no clear reason to cut or hold. Key inflation readings this week will add to the picture.
Bitcoin remains inside the $65,000 to $73,000 range it has traded in for the entirety of the conflict. Every rally has failed at the upper bound, every selloff has held the lower. What happens by midnight Tuesday, when Trump's deadline arrives, will determine which end of that range gets tested next.
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