Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

Last Friday, YZi Labs invested “tens of millions of dollars”, and CZ personally joined as an advisor to Genius announced on the X platform that the airdrop share accounts for 21% of the total token supply, divided into three seasons: Season 1, Season 2, and Season 3, with each season accounting for 7%.

Official original image, where there is a clear error, Season 2 in the lower right should be Season 3

According to Genius previously stated, Season 1 will end before April 12, and more importantly, TGE will occur before April 12. Therefore, before TGE on April 12, the community airdrop share will be 7% of the total token supply, which equates to 70 million tokens airdropped.

Genius previously stated that TGE will occur before April 12

Next, Odaily Planet Daily will help you understand Genius, the current cost of earning GP through trading volume, and the value analysis of the airdrop.

YZi Labs invested “tens of millions of dollars”, and CZ personally joined as an advisor to Genius

Genius is a privacy-centric decentralized trading platform that offers spot trading, perpetual contracts, and copy trading, supporting over 10 public chains including BNB Chain and Solana, and aims to be a blockchain alternative to Binance—bringing the speed, liquidity, and privacy experience of CEX on-chain while maintaining full self-custody and non-custodial (users hold private keys).

As early as October 2024, Genius announced the completion of a $6 million seed round funding, led by CMCC Global, with participation from Cadenza Ventures, AVA Labs, Arca, Flow Traders, and others.

Then on January 13 this year, Genius announced that YZi Labs had invested “tens of millions of dollars”, and CZ personally joined as an advisor.

Season 1 season, with a total of 200 million GP points, the cost of points has concentrated in the range of $0.025 to $0.045 in recent weeks

When Genius announced new rules for GP points at the end of January, it stated that Season 1 has a total of 200 million GP points and will not issue any more. Currently, the confirmed total points before TGE mean that the potential airdrop value depends on the scoring cost and the community's expectations for Genius’s launch.

Point cost concentrated in the range of $0.025 to $0.045

According to feedback from several deep-rooted “profit extraction” users, the recent cost for generating GP through trading volume at Genius has been between $0.025 and $0.045 per point, with last week being the “lowest cost week”.

A profit extraction user’s point cost calculation over the past 3 weeks

Moreover, based on Dune data, it is not difficult to see that most users generating volume on Genius tend to engage in trading on the last day of each week, with the last day’s trading volume ranging from $300 million to $400 million over the past three weeks.

Genius daily trading volume data

This week's trading fees plummeting from 0.3% to 0.04%

Yesterday, Genius announced that, as Season 1 is coming to an end, the trading fees for all transactions on the platform have dropped sharply from 0.3% to 0.04%, combined with the upcoming TGE, trading volumes over the last 2 days of the week may see a massive surge.

The market generally expects Genius's opening FDV to be between $100 million and $150 million

Odaily Seer prophet channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction market for “Genius FDV one day after opening”, with a 74% probability that the FDV will be greater than $100 million on the first day, while the probability that it will be greater than $200 million is only 27%.

Polymarket has launched the prediction market for “Genius FDV one day after opening”

Based on existing data, during TGE, 7% of the total supply of airdropped tokens is 70 million tokens. For 200 million GP points, assuming a fair distribution of tokens, each GP point can obtain approximately 0.35 tokens. Therefore, different FDVs at launch correspond to the GP values as follows:

• If FDV is $100 million, each GP is worth approximately $0.035: most consider this as the “barely break-even line” or break-even threshold, low-cost volume users can make a small profit;
• If FDV is $200 million, each GP is worth approximately $0.07: low-cost volume users have significant positive returns, representing the community's optimistic scenario.
• If FDV is $300 million, each GP is worth approximately $0.105;
• If FDV is $500 million, each GP is worth approximately $0.175: combined with CZ as an advisor + YZi Labs financing, some KOLs’ optimistic expectations.

Combining Polymarket prediction data, if Genius conducts a relatively fair airdrop distribution as previously stated, the airdrop during Genius TGE is closer to “break-even with positive returns”—at least, not a typical “backlash case”.

However, the problem is that, after a round of intensive “backlash education” in Q1, market trust has been significantly exhausted. In the context of an ongoing sluggish market, whether Genius's TGE will be a long-awaited return repair or another seemingly reasonable but actually harvesting script remains to be verified.

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