Author: Conflux

"After Iran, the next is Cuba."

On March 30 this year, this statement by U.S. President Trump brought an economy that has long been on the margins back into global focus.

If this statement is understood merely as political rhetoric, its significance could be underestimated. What is more noteworthy is that prior to such statements, the market had already begun to "price in uncertainty" in advance.

In mid-March, on a decentralized prediction platform, three accounts almost simultaneously established positions, betting on "the U.S. invading Cuba in 2026," with a total amount of approximately $60,000.

This behavior itself does not point to a certain outcome, but it reflects a change: Cuba is re-entering the risk pricing system from a long-neglected variable.

The background of this change is the continued tightening of the real environment.

In early 2026, the U.S. further strengthened energy and trade restrictions on Cuba. On January 30, Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency and imposing tariffs on countries providing oil to Cuba.

The direct result was fuel shortages and widespread power outages in Cuba, putting pressure on both economic operations and the social environment. In such an environment, the first thing that often changes is not production, but a more fundamental issue: whether funds can flow smoothly.

Cuba's crypto market gradually formed under this issue.

In 2020, when Western Union closed the remittance channel from the U.S. to Cuba, a previously stable cross-border money flow chain was cut off. Many families dependent on overseas remittances were forced to seek alternative paths.

Against this backdrop, crypto assets including Bitcoin began to take on part of the function of cross-border value transfer. The characteristics of this stage are clear: demand precedes regulation, and usage precedes institutionalization.

Subsequently, in 2021, the Central Bank of Cuba introduced a regulatory framework for virtual assets, implementing licensing management for virtual asset service providers and recognizing their use within a specific scope. This does not mean that crypto assets were incorporated into the traditional financial system; rather, it formed a model closer to "boundary management"—allowing existence while emphasizing risk isolation.

This institutional arrangement moved the crypto market from "spontaneous behavior" to a phase of "observable and manageable."

By around 2022, with the continued sanctions environment, Cuba began discussing alternative settlement paths with countries like Russia, and crypto assets were included in the discussion framework for cross-border payments. At this point, its role had extended from "a supplementary tool at the individual level" to "a potential settlement option."

If one observes the period from 2020 to 2026 as a whole, a relatively clear evolutionary logic can be seen:

• When traditional payment channels shrink, cryptocurrencies appear first as an alternative path;
• When this alternative path is used repeatedly, it begins to enter regulatory visibility;
• When external constraints persist, it further becomes part of broader payment and settlement discussions.

At the usage level, cryptocurrencies have been embedded in multiple scenarios in Cuba.

On one hand, they are used for cross-border remittances and value transfers. Data shows that over 100,000 Cuban users have used Bitcoin and other crypto assets, with platforms like BitRemesas and QvaPay serving this need long term.

On the other hand, it has also begun to enter more formal commercial environments.

On March 23, 2026, the Central Bank of Cuba authorized ten companies for the first time to use virtual assets for cross-border commercial operations, allowing them to make purchases, transfers, and custody under a licensing framework, and to disclose transaction situations quarterly.

This means that the role of crypto assets is extending from "supplementary tools" to "institutional tools."

If Cuba is placed within a larger framework, this evolution is not an isolated case.

Sanctioned economies like Iran are also exploring alternative payment paths, including cryptocurrencies. The difference lies in how each country shapes its usage based on its own resources and constraints.

Cuba's path is more focused on payments and circulation rather than production or resource realization.

Returning to the initial question: why did the market start acting before Trump's statement?

The essential reason is that when uncertainty rises, the market not only reassesses the probabilities of the events themselves but also synchronously evaluates a more fundamental variable: will the funding flow paths change?

In the context of Cuba, cryptocurrencies are part of these paths.

From remittance disruptions to regulatory establishment to entering commercial use, Cuba's crypto market is not the result of a technological wave but rather a path gradually formed under real constraints.

And as the external environment continues to change, this path itself is still being continuously adjusted.

*This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks; investment should be cautious.

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