On March 25, 2026, at 8:00 AM GMT+8, Pakistan handed over the U.S. proposal to end the war to Iran. This move provides a realistic anchor for a potential new round of dialogue between the U.S. and Iran, but the process still remains in a very early stage, with the timeline and content details highly opaque. Following this news, the market began to oscillate between "expectations of peace talks" and "escalation of conflict," rapidly igniting sentiments within cryptocurrency prices and related derivatives. On-chain data shows that wallets related to the pre-liquidation and whitelist USR have collectively redeemed over $77 million in funds (from a single source), as safe-haven migration and tentative bottom fishing took place simultaneously, amplifying volatility and divergence in the market in a short period.

War Proposal Delivered to Tehran: A Geopolitically Uncertain Starting Point

On March 25, the U.S. submitted the "end of war proposal" to Iran through Pakistan, which acted as an information channel and mediator, relaying Washington's intentions to Tehran, but did not disclose more procedures or content details. This process highlights the reality of indirect communication: there was no confirmation of face-to-face talks between the U.S. and Iran in public channels; instead, third parties were relied upon to probe for space.

From the currently available information, this round of engagement appears to be more of a "friendly greeting" type of initial interaction rather than entering a substantive negotiation phase. Neither specific timelines nor the core issues potentially touched upon by the U.S. plan have been disclosed, and there is still uncertainty regarding the formal response from Iran. The characteristics of this early stage dictate that any optimistic narrative about "an agreement in sight" lacks a foundation. Similarly, speculations about so-called "detailed plan terms" and "specific meeting arrangements" have not been confirmed through official channels, leaving a vacuum of information that allows room for market imagination.

In an environment lacking transparency, pricing is no longer just based on facts but rather on the redistribution of probabilities between the "best" and "worst" scenarios. Some traders have begun to bet on a path of easing, viewing this as a signal for conflict de-escalation, while others are concerned that the proposal may be rejected and conflict may escalate, opting to reduce their positions first. The absence of details has greatly amplified the elasticity of the narrative, where any new snippet could prompt the market to swing sharply between two extremes of expectation.

Safe-Haven Sentiment vs. Bargain Hunting in Market Dynamics

Before and after the proposal was handed over, the market was pulled by emotions around whether "the war will continue to escalate or a point of easing may emerge." When the news had not landed yet, funds leaned towards defense, fearing that further attacks or sanctions would trigger a new round of risk asset sell-offs; however, when the outside world caught wind of the "end of war proposal," bullish narratives shifted: if the conflict de-escalates, previously suppressed risk appetites due to safe-haven concerns could be expected to recover, thereby opening a rebound window for asset prices. This expectation switch did not occur in macro data but rather concentrated on geopolitical headlines, significantly amplifying short-term volatility.

On-chain movements of funds also reflect this division. The pre-liquidation accounts related to attack events and whitelist USR wallets have redeemed funds exceeding $77 million, a figure from a single source that still needs to be cross-verified with more on-chain tracking data, but its scale indicates that some funds are actively "pulling out," prioritizing availability and security. Out of caution, we can only regard this as a sample signal under high-risk scenarios rather than a complete panorama.

At the market level, some funds chose to withdraw from high-leverage or less liquid targets before uncertainties escalated, while others viewed the "possibility of peace talks" as an embryonic form of an emotional bottom, attempting to bottom-fish in batches, betting on risk asset recovery after event easing. This concurrent state of withdrawal and bottom-fishing results in price changes not fully synchronizing with emotional curves, creating a typical "emotional mismatch": apparent fluctuations seem limited, but structural turnover and hidden accumulation are reshaping the distribution of chips.

Crypto-Related Stocks Lead Gains: Wall Street Bets on Narrative Recovery

During the pre-market trading period in the U.S. stock market, crypto-related concept stocks generally strengthened, recording gains in the range of 2.99%–3.63%, becoming one of the more eye-catching sectors in pre-market trading. This collective upward movement is hard to explain solely by improvements in individual stock fundamentals; it instead resembles traditional funds concentrating bets on capturing the macro narrative of "conflict may cool down, risk appetite may rebound."

Compared to directly allocating funds to crypto assets, many Wall Street funds still prefer to express views through crypto-related stocks: on one hand, these stocks operate within familiar regulatory and trading frameworks, making adjustments easier within existing risk management systems; on the other hand, these concept stocks often possess both technology growth and crypto Beta attributes, allowing them to benefit simultaneously from "risk asset recovery" and "crypto narrative repair" when peace talk expectations rise. This "curve betting" logic makes the stock market another mirror reflecting peace talk sentiments.

The correlation between crypto concept stocks and spot currency prices has strengthened in recent years, and this latest pre-market surge again reflects the efficiency of cross-market emotional transmission. Looking ahead, this means that macro and geopolitical events will no longer just circulate pricing between traditional assets but will more quickly permeate into the crypto sector: a piece of news may first impact U.S. equity index futures and related concept stocks, and then be reflected back into currency prices and contract markets through emotions and hedging demand. For participants, a single market perspective is no longer sufficient to capture the complete risk chain.

Contract Leverage Heating Up: Amplifier Effects of Bitget and Binance

Amid rising geopolitical uncertainties and rapid narrative shifts, derivatives and high-leverage products continue to expand. Bitget announced the launch of two new contract targets: EWT and KWEB, supporting leverage up to 25 times, launched during a recent market window highly sensitive to conflict and peace talk expectations. For aggressive traders, such new products offer richer directional and hedging tools, but also bring in higher liquidation risks.

At the same time, Binance Futures introduced BSB/USDT perpetual contracts with a maximum leverage of 10 times, further enhancing its layout in thematic and structural targets. From a product design perspective, moderate leverage paired with high liquidity can attract funds with strong views on specific narratives, allowing them to amplify expected returns under limited margins while also magnifying potential losses and liquidation sizes.

As the geopolitical situation enters a phase of "high volatility, low confirmation," more high-leverage contracts and new varieties emerge, presenting a bidirectional amplification effect of market fluctuations and liquidation risks. Prices, once sharply skewed by news, can lead to passive position reductions and cascading liquidations in contract positions, which in turn accelerates market movements, transforming what should be a gentle repricing of event probabilities into violent jolts on the leverage chain.

On-Chain Fund Withdrawals and Resolv Labs’ Narrative Boundaries

At the on-chain level, the redemption of over $77 million from pre-liquidation accounts and whitelist USR wallets depicts a scenario of urgent fund reallocation and self-rescue: some funds are withdrawing from high-risk or impacted ecosystems, shifting towards off-chain or other on-chain assets to reduce exposure in case of further deterioration of events. Such actions are often not directly presented in traditional news but form "underlying indicators" of market sentiment through transaction records and balance changes.

In response to pressure, project parties and relevant technical teams have begun to actively shape the narrative of "controlled risk." Resolv Labs publicly claims that their so-called "first phase recovery work has made significant progress," attempting to send a signal to token holders and partners that "issues are converging, and fixes are advancing." However, it should be emphasized that this statement only reflects the project party's position. In the absence of third-party audits or more transparent data, external investors find it challenging to quantify the actual meaning of "significant progress."

During times of high information chaos, announcements from project parties, platform statements, and social media updates often become the main channels through which most people acquire information, objectively constructing a cognitive framework for the market regarding risk levels and recovery pace. ● On one hand, proactive statements help stabilize panic sentiment and delay stampedes; ● On the other hand, if progress is overly packaged or key adverse information is delayed in disclosure, investors may bear larger tail risks amidst information asymmetries. Therefore, those who command the narrative, control the timing of releases and the granularity of information often gain an advantage in the emotional and pricing games.

From Early Dialogue to Long-Term Narrative: Where Does the Cryptocurrency Market Stand?

In summary, the potential dialogue between the U.S. and Iran currently seems to have more changed the "distribution of expectations" rather than the actual landscape itself. The so-called proposal to end the war has just been conveyed through a third party and has not yet entered a verifiable negotiation stage. The impact on the cryptocurrency market is mainly reflected in the repricing of risk premiums—weights of extreme pessimism and excessive optimism have been adjusted, and prices undergo a rebalancing of scenario probabilities under the stimulus of news rather than a logical confirmation of a trend reversal.

If subsequent dialogues make progress and expectations of conflict de-escalation strengthen, funds may gradually migrate back from safe-haven assets and passive monitoring positions towards high Beta cryptocurrency spots and thematic sectors, paired with gentle leverage to amplify returns; conversely, once peace talk expectations fracture or conflict escalates again, leveraged funds are likely to speedily withdraw from long-cycle varieties, opting instead to use short-term contracts for hedging or even inverse betting, with some high-leverage products potentially serving as fuses for amplifying low-probability extreme market conditions.

In an environment characterized by information gaps and high leverage, investors need to pay particular attention to three types of risks and opportunities: first, information source risk—distinguishing between single-source messages, project claims, and multi-party validated data, avoiding treating unverified "stage advancements" as underlying facts; second, leverage chain risk—clearly assessing one's overall leverage multipliers in contracts and lending, being wary of cascading liquidations triggered by sudden geopolitical news; third, cross-market pricing opportunities—observing the rhythm differences between U.S. stock crypto concept stocks, index futures, and the cryptocurrency market, utilizing the time lag of emotion transmission across different markets for more cautious positioning. Geopolitical narratives will not disappear quickly, and the cryptocurrency market has already been integrated into this narrative chain; what participants can do is, amidst noise and amplifiers, to maintain their rhythm and positions as much as possible.

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