On February 28, 2026, the Middle East powder keg was ignited once again. U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu simultaneously announced the launch of a major military strike against Iran, codenamed "Operation Lion's Roar." Unlike the limited conflict that lasted 12 days in June 2025, this time, the flames of war quickly spread throughout the Persian Gulf, with the Strait of Hormuz being blocked by Iran, cutting off the global energy lifeline.
As of March 4, the war had entered its fifth day, and global capital markets were experiencing a "massacre" more terrifying than the war itself.
1. 48-Hour Dramatic Change: From Decapitation Strike to Strait Blockade
February 28: Simultaneous Declaration of War
● The U.S. and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran. Trump released a video on social media, stating that the objective of the action was to "eliminate the imminent threat posed by the Iranian regime." Israel named this action "Operation Lion's Roar." The key strike targets were aimed directly at the center of Tehran, including areas near Supreme Leader Khamenei's office and the presidential palace. It was later confirmed that Khamenei was killed in the attack.
March 1: Iranian Retaliation Begins
● The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced the initiation of "Real Commitment-4" operation, launching multiple attacks against U.S. forces. The Guard claimed to have fired ballistic missiles at the U.S. aircraft carrier "Lincoln" located in the Arabian Sea and struck 27 U.S. military bases in the Middle East. The Israeli Defense Forces claimed to have killed 40 Iranian military commanders, crippling most of Iran's air defense systems in the west.
March 2-3: War Escalation and Spillover
● The flames of war rapidly spread to several Gulf countries. Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and others were attacked by missiles or affected. Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was completely under the control of the Iranian navy, prohibiting navigation, and stated that over a dozen tankers that ignored warnings were hit and burned. The U.S. Central Command reported over 1,700 strikes on targets within Iran. Iran declared hitting two U.S. "THAAD" missile defense systems.
March 4 Early Morning: Attack on U.S. Warships
● The Iranian Revolutionary Guard issued its 19th statement, claiming to have launched missile attacks on U.S. strategic targets in the Indian Ocean, specifically U.S. destroyers and supply ships located 650 kilometers off the coast of Iran, asserting that both ships caught fire after being hit.
2. Cutting Off the "World Oil Valve": An Unwinnable Energy Gamble
If the conflict in 2025 was merely a "surgical strike" warning, this time, Iran directly played its trump card—blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
● As the only waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 32% of global maritime crude oil exports and 20% of liquefied natural gas transport. In normal times, around 16 million barrels of oil are shipped from here daily. However, on March 3, this figure plummeted to 4 million barrels.
● This is not just an interruption of energy supply but a destabilization of the cornerstone of the global economy. The Economist from the UK describes the current situation as the "biggest oil crisis in years."
● J.P. Morgan's commodity team issued a warning: If the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted for 3 to 4 weeks, the existing land reserves of Gulf oil-producing countries will only support approximately 25 days of exports. After that, they will be forced to halt production due to storage limitations. At that time, the price of Brent crude oil is expected to rise to $100 per barrel, and a global economic recession will almost be inevitable.
● As of the close on March 3, WTI crude oil prices had risen more than 8% in the day, nearing $77 per barrel. Wall Street traders were frantically buying oil while selling off all risk-related assets.
3. Black Tuesday: A Collective Collapse from Seoul to Wall Street
The smoke of war has yet to reach East Asia, but the storm in the financial markets has arrived first. On March 3, the global capital markets experienced a genuine "Black Tuesday."
South Korean Stock Market: The First "Canary" to be Hit
● As the "canary" of the global economy, the South Korean stock market experienced an unprecedented crash. With about 70% of South Korea's crude oil imports relying on the Middle East, soaring oil prices directly impacted market confidence. The KOSPI index plummeted over 7% during the day, triggering a trading halt.
● Semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix saw their stock prices drop nearly 10% and 11.5% respectively, becoming the main drivers of the market downturn. South Korean ETFs listed in the U.S. once plunged nearly 15% during intraday trading. International investors net sold 54 trillion Korean won (about $4.7 billion) that day, while the Korean won depreciated by 1.34% against the U.S. dollar.
Asia-Pacific Markets: Chain Reaction
● The Nikkei 225 index fell over 3%;
● The Australian AX200 index fell by 1.3%;
● Asia, being a major region for crude oil imports, was not spared in this storm triggered by energy.
A-shares: The Tragic Scene of 4,800 Stocks Falling
● The A-share market also failed to break free from the independent market trend. As of the close on March 3, over 4,800 stocks in both markets fell, with only around 600 stocks rising.
● The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,122 points, down 1.43%. During the session, it briefly rallied under the protection of "the three barrels of oil" and bank stocks, but ultimately fell sharply due to widespread declines among individual stocks and a lack of profit-making effects.
● The Science and Technology Innovation Index plummeted by 5.38%, and the CSI 2000 Index fell by 4.16%, with previously popular tech themes like AI and semiconductors becoming major casualties.
● The market exhibited a typical "80/20 divide"—large-cap stocks defended the index while small and medium-sized stocks suffered massive declines.
4. The Choices of Major Powers and the Fog of War
As the conflict continued for five days, the positions and actions of various parties gradually became clear.
● United States: Trump indicated that he was considering dispatching warships to escort tankers and stated that "the economic and military strength of the United States is the strongest in the world—further actions will follow." However, some analysts pointed out that the depletion of interceptor missile inventories and decreasing domestic public support are becoming concerns for the White House.
● Europe: French President Macron announced that the "Charles de Gaulle" aircraft carrier would be deployed in the Mediterranean, while also calling for an immediate halt of military strikes.
● NATO: Secretary General Stoltenberg reiterated that NATO would not participate in actions against Iran.
● Middle Eastern Countries: The Saudi cabinet announced it would take all necessary measures to defend national security; Iraq's southern giant Rumaila oilfield announced a halt in production; nearly 8,000 foreign tourists in Qatar were stranded due to airspace closure.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,000, down 1.82% in 24 hours. At this turbulent moment, whether digital gold can truly become a safe haven remains uncertain.
The only certainty is that as the smoke rises from the Strait of Hormuz and tankers burn in the Persian Gulf, every breath of the global economy will feel the scorch. How long will this war last? Will it evolve into yet another "endless war," or will a way down be found through diplomatic mediation? The answer may be hidden in the upcoming 48 hours, within each missile that falls.
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