Author: brother bing / Bing Brother
8:00am: I woke up, and my phone notifications were about the joint declaration of war by the United States and Israel against Iran.
Perhaps having been in Dubai for too long, I felt somewhat indifferent to the conflict in this region. Although Dubai is located in a powder keg, the UAE has always seemed to me to be neutral, the safe little Switzerland of the Middle East.
After all, both legal and illegal money flow here. I thought to myself, Iran wouldn't damage its own little treasure.
9:30am: A colleague came to me to discuss matters, so we went downstairs for a coffee and brunch. He was flying back to the UK from Abu Dhabi today, and the flight was not canceled, nor were there any changes to the ticket. Everything seemed normal.
12:00pm: I went home to start work after lunch. It was then that I saw that Iran decided to attack the surrounding Gulf countries, and I surprisingly hadn’t taken it seriously. It wasn't until I saw friends in Abu Dhabi posting photos of missiles on Instagram that I felt things might be more serious than I thought.
1-3:00pm: In the afternoon, people living around me on social media kept saying they heard the sound of missile explosions. Since I didn’t hear anything myself, I naturally assumed these accounts were spreading false information.
4:30pm: While I was typing away at my computer, there was suddenly a strong explosion sound above my head, causing my partially open balcony door to shake. I went to the balcony and indeed smelled gunpowder in the air.
Since I had a Pilates class scheduled for 5:00pm, or maybe my mind hadn’t fully grasped the situation, I closed the balcony door and went downstairs to the class. When I stepped onto the street, it was surprisingly peaceful and calm. Parents were taking their children out, and dog owners were walking their pets.
The café next to the yoga studio was filled with people. Influencers were still happily taking selfies.
6:00pm: After my workout and returning home, the explosions became more frequent. I saw online that a hotel on Palm Island had been hit, and smoke was rising from City Walk.
Ironically, I was discussing company matters with my co-founder at that time, and while on the phone, I heard the explosions outside. I thought: is it missiles or just fireworks for Ramadan? Several times I interrupted the call and stepped out to the balcony to check if anything was falling from the sky.
7:30pm: After finishing work, I went downstairs for a walk. The streetlights were on, shops were open, and there was no obvious panic in the crowd, except for slightly longer delivery times.
I thought I could spend the night peacefully and wait for Khamenei to be captured, hoping the Iranian people would return home.
But unexpectedly
12:30am: I was at home eating Japanese ramen takeout late at night when I received notifications on all my phones and computers about missile attacks. At that moment, I heard a series of booming explosions outside my window. I quickly grabbed my passport, cards, and phone, rushed out the door, and took the elevator down to the garage. In the elevator, there was a Ukrainian man along with an Indian couple holding a sleeping child.
1:30am: I stayed in the garage for over an hour. During this time, I saw on social media that Khamenei had reportedly died, but also that Dubai airport had been bombed to pieces. While I was in a dilemma, someone in the building came over and told us to go back upstairs to our homes.
When I got home, I saw a friend's message saying that Iran is unlikely to bomb the UAE for now, but will turn its attention to Israel.
The next morning at 8:00am: 24 hours had passed, and aside from the bombing of the Burj Al Arab last night, I had not seen a significant number of casualties. In my area, I could hear explosions every now and then.
Iran stated that it would continue its attacks in the Gulf today, forcing the US to stop its attacks on Iran.
Finally, let's talk about the impact of this attack on Dubai and the UAE.
Many people are likening this event to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which is simply nonsensical and thoughtless. Airstrikes are one thing, and ground wars are another. The likelihood of UAE territory being occupied is extremely low. This country is unlikely to enter a prolonged state of war.
The real impact lies in how the narrative of Dubai as a success story of "gold rush dreams" and "reform and opening up in the Middle East" has been torn apart. Dubai, as a hub for global tourism and capital flow, will certainly face shocks in the short term. The first to feel the pressure will be the tourism industry. The second group will likely be the elderly investors flipping properties for quick profits.
In the longer term, and more dangerously, is the significant reduction of foreign immigrants. An economy reliant on foreign population and capital influx is highly dependent on the sense of "stability." Many Europeans come to Dubai seeking job opportunities or tax havens; after a few missiles, they may turn to Singapore or other Asian countries.
Of course, the UAE is a highly efficient monarchy. Additionally, it is not poor. This black swan event has come at a rather timely moment, serving as a wake-up call. Next time, please dig a bomb shelter for my building.
Enough said, I'm heading downstairs to get a coffee.
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