The QINGLAN cryptocurrency class begins! BTC four cycles + news double perspective, bringing you to step in time with the rhythm of the cryptocurrency circle.

Technical and cyclical mixed analysis:

1. Short term (15-minute chart): Weak rebound under the dominance of bears.
   The price has dropped from last night's high, hitting a low around 63433 dollars, and is now lingering within this small range of 64100-64500. The 15-minute MA moving averages (5, 10, 20) are all arranged bearishly pressing down, although the MACD green bars are shortening, the fast and slow lines (DIF/DEA) are still very deep underwater, and the RSI is hovering around 35, which belongs to the weak area. This indicates that the short-term downward momentum is weakening, but the bullish counterattack clearly lacks strength, more like a pause after a significant drop. The key support will look at the recent low around 63400, with resistance first looking at 65000, which is a position that couldn’t hold during the early session rebound.

2. Medium term (1-hour & 4-hour chart): Downward trend is clear, no signs of reversal.
   These two cycles are clearer. On the 1-hour chart, the price is tightly pressed by all moving averages, the MACD continues to diverge after a death cross underwater, and the RSI fluctuates in the weak area of 30-40. The 4-hour chart is worse, the MACD fast and slow lines' opening is widening downwards, and the green bars (negative values) are getting longer, which is a typical signal for accelerating decline. From a pattern perspective, the 4-hour level has already broken below the previous consolidation platform (around 66000-68000), entering a new downtrend channel. The medium-term key resistance has moved down to the 66000-66500 area, where it was previously support and has now become strong resistance. As for support, we will look at the daily level first.

3. Long term (daily chart): The rising trend structure is facing severe tests.
   On the daily level, we see that the price has fallen below the MA20 moving average (around 67763 dollars), and is testing a more critical neckline support area, approximately in the 63000-64000 dollar range. This position is very important as it is one of the "lifelines" for this wave of upward trend since the end of last year. If it effectively breaks down here, the technical pattern will become very ugly, possibly leading to a deeper correction. The daily MACD has seen a death cross at a high, and the DIF value has fallen to over -3800, with strong bearish momentum. The RSI has also dropped to around 30, entering the oversold area, but under the trend's force, oversold can still become more oversold.

The news is adding fuel to the fire:
The technical aspect is already bleak, and the news is making it worse. Let's summarize:

• Macro bearish: Trump's tariff warnings, US stocks falling, AI impacting traditional tech stocks (IBM plummeting), global risk asset sentiment is poor, making it difficult for Bitcoin to stand alone.

• Capital pressure: News is filled with “whales selling ETH”, “Vitalik continuously selling”, “Bitcoin treasury continuously reducing holdings”, “ETF fund outflows”. Especially with ETH being sold off by many big players, dragging down the entire crypto market sentiment. The options market is also heavily betting on declines (buying put options).

• Industry negatives: Exchange compliance issues (KuCoin), project teams running away/hacker attacks (Step Finance), insider trading allegations... all these are hitting market confidence.

• The only bright spot: It seems that only “whales increasing long positions against the trend” and “new address withdrawing 500 BTC from Binance” count as a bit of counter-signal, but in the face of overwhelming selling pressure, it appears to be a drop in the bucket. The surge in gold has also diverted safe-haven funds.

Comprehensive prediction and trading thoughts:
By looking at cycles, technical aspects, and news together, the conclusion becomes clearer: the market is in an obvious bearish trend, and although there is a need for a short-term oversold rebound, the medium-term downward pressure is immense.

• Trend direction: Short-term weak fluctuations, medium-term declines, long-term upward trend facing critical tests.

• Our prediction: The price will likely retest the 63000-64000 key support zone on the daily chart. Here, there will be fierce competition between bulls and bears. If there are no major positive news (like the Federal Reserve suddenly turning towards a dovish stance), it is difficult to reverse the current downtrend with just a technical rebound. More likely, after struggling in this position, it will choose to break downwards.

• Trading thoughts (for reference only, risk is self-borne):

• Bulls (bottom fishing): Be patient! Do not easily catch falling knives. The ideal position for going long is to wait for a clear stop-loss signal on the daily level (like long lower shadows, bottom divergence), or for the price to strongly recapture 66000 and hold. Otherwise, any rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions or go short.

• Bears: Friends of the trend. If the rebound approaches the resistance area of 65000-66000, and momentum weakens (like a bearish candlestick pattern occurs, RSI turns down again), consider gradually entering short positions, with stop-loss placed above 67000. The target looks towards 63000, and if it breaks, space opens up.

• Key observation points: Keep a close eye on the gains and losses in the 63000-64000 area, as well as whether there are unexpected macro-positive news (like dovish comments from the Fed) that can reverse market sentiment.

For more quantitative breakdown of real-time news influencing market sentiment, it has been updated in my QINGLAN cryptocurrency class: www.qinglan.org

Finally, I would like to share a thought of the day with everyone:
“When the trend comes, respond to it, follow it; when there is no trend, observe it, be still. Swimming upstream in a falling waterfall is not as good as getting to the shore first to see the direction.” In the current market, protecting capital is more important than pursuing profits. Alright, that’s it for today’s analysis, everyone stay alert, and we will track market changes at any time!

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