Today is the sixth day of the Lunar New Year. First, I wish everyone a prosperous start to work and a wealth of resources!
Qinglan Crypto Class is starting! BTC from four cycles + news perspective, leading you to accurately step in the rhythm of the coin circle.
1. Multi-cycle technical perspective "twisting a flower".
Let’s look from big to small:
Daily level (long-term trend): A weak rebound in a downtrend.
The price (~68136) is firmly pressed below MA5 (~67519) and MA10 (~68150), and the moving averages are clearly in a bearish arrangement. Although the MACD green bars are shortening (negative value), the fast and slow lines (DIF/DEA) are still in deep water, indicating that the long-term downward momentum has only slightly eased and is far from reversing. The RSI is at 37.75, in the weak zone. Conclusion: The long-term downtrend remains unchanged, and the current phase belongs to a low-level consolidation after an oversold state.
4-hour level (mid-term trend): Consolidation and attempting to break through.
This cycle is interesting! The price has been oscillating in the range of 67000-69000 for almost a week. Currently, the price has risen above MA5 (~68272) and MA10 (~68013), and is attempting to attack MA20 (~67512). The MACD fast and slow lines just formed a golden cross below the zero axis, and the red bars (positive value) are continuously expanding, which is a positive short-term bullish signal. The RSI is at 53.22, moderately strong. Conclusion: The mid-term is in a consolidation repair phase following a decline, with initial rebound momentum.
1-hour level (short-term trend): Surge and then retreat, looking for support.
A surge early this morning reached 68600 and is currently correcting. The price has fallen below MA5 (~68082) and MA10 (~68249), and is testing the support of MA20 (~68209). The MACD fast and slow lines are above the zero axis, but the red bars have significantly shortened, showing signs of forming a death cross. The RSI has retreated from the overbought zone to 51.16. Conclusion: The short-term upward momentum is exhausted, entering a correction. The key lies in whether support can be gained at critical moving averages.
15-minute level (ultra-short-term rhythm): Adjustment in progress.
A clear downward channel. Since this morning's high point of 68171, it has been oscillating downwards. The MACD is below the zero axis, the green bars (negative value) have shortened but are still expanding, the RSI is at 49.42, somewhat weak. Conclusion: The ultra-short-term is in a clear adjustment rhythm and needs to wait for a stop-loss signal.
Technical summary: Long-term bearish, mid-term has signs of rebound, short-term is in a correction. The market resembles a twisted flower, with different cycles showing inconsistent directions, indicating a significant split in the bullish and bearish forces, leading to fierce competition.
2. News perspective "adding fuel to the fire" or "providing timely help"?
The news provides a good explanation for the technical profile:
Bearish pressure (long-term/emotional aspect): "Spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of 3.8 billion dollars for five consecutive weeks," "Coinbase Bitcoin negative premium has been breaking records for 37 days," these are substantial pressures in terms of funds, explaining why the daily level is so weak and why rebounds always seem hesitant. Large institutions are withdrawing funds in phases, and market risk appetite is very low.
Active on-chain signals (mid-term/fundamental aspect): "Bitcoin faith-based buyers hold 3.48 million coins, hitting a new high," "long-term holders' selling pressure is slowing, and the contraction of computing power indicates improved returns." These are signals provided by "smart money" and underlying data, indicating that below 68000, there is strong buying power quietly taking over, which provides logical support for the 4-hour level's consolidation.
Macroeconomic uncertainty (external variables): Trump's remarks on "global tariffs" and Polymarket's prediction of a "63% chance of the US striking Iran" have cast a shadow over global risk assets, increasing market volatility and risk-averse sentiment.
3. Comprehensive forecast and trading ideas
By integrating cycles and news, my judgment is:
The market is in the "mid-term weak rebound repair stage under a long-term bearish trend." Due to ongoing outflows of ETF funds and other macro pressures, the height of the rebound is limited (for example, 70000 is strong resistance); however, due to the accumulated buy pressure on-chain and the oversold state, deep declines are also challenging (for example, the 67000-67500 area has strong support).
Key levels:
Upper resistance: 68600-69000 (recent high & upper edge of the 4-hour level box), 70000 (psychological barrier & strong resistance of daily MA10).
Lower support: 67800-68000 (1-hour MA20 & this morning's oscillating platform), 67000-67500 (lower edge of the 4-hour level box & belief buyer cost zone).
Trading ideas (偏 right side, focusing on stability):
Short-term (intraday): The current price (~68136) is in a short-term correction, making it unwise to pursue high. Patience is needed to wait for a correction to the 67800-68000 support area, observe if a stop-loss candlestick appears on the 15-minute chart (such as a long lower shadow or a bullish engulfing), and if the MACD green bars contract or form a golden cross, one can attempt a small long position with a target of 68500-68600, with a stop loss below 67600.
Medium-term (next few days): Pay attention to the continuity of the MACD golden cross at the 4-hour level. If the price can increase and stabilize above 68600, the rebound space is expected to open up to 69500-70000. At that time, consider following up with a long position near the pullback of 68400. Conversely, if it breaks below the key support of 67500, the rebound structure will be broken, requiring reevaluation.
Overall strategy: Before effectively breaking through the core resistance (69000) and core support (67500), treat it with a high-sell low-buy interval oscillation mindset. Given that the overall trend is still bearish, long positions should be quick in and out, with strict profit protection, and do not get too attached to the battle.
For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, updates have been made in my Qinglan Crypto Class, www.qinglan.org
Finally, I would like to share with everyone today’s insight: “In a volatile market intertwined with bullish and bearish sentiments, it is not about who sees further, but who is more patient in waiting for that high-probability 'strike point'.” Alright, today’s market analysis ends here, see you next time!
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