Just saw Bitwise's data, simply put, Bitwise believes that although the price of $BTC has sharply declined, there are no signs of a collapse in the holdings of Bitcoin spot ETFs, representing that this downturn is more of a "price drops first, flow maintains" structural mismatch, rather than a typical "ETF fund liquidation."

Bitwise recalibrated the net inflow of spot ETFs since January 2024 to the price of BTC, yielding a fair value implied by capital flow.

The results show that the current actual price of BTC (black line) has significantly dropped below this flow implied fair value, with the deviation once reaching an extreme range of -35% to -40% (close to/touching 2σ).

In simple terms, the cumulative capital flow of the ETF still represents real demand intensity, meaning BTC is currently in a position of "significantly discounted relative capital flow."

Therefore, the current trend is more likely a "price collapse" caused by leverage unwinding, derivatives forced liquidations, and a sudden drop in short-term risk appetite, rather than an ETF collapse causing this, which is consistent with what Robert Mitchnick, the Global Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock, stated at the Bitcoin Investor Week 2026 event.

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