What to know : Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone has shifted his bitcoin downside target from $10,000 to about $28,000 after criticism that his earlier call was alarmist and risky for investors. McGlone now argues that $28,000 is a more probable level based on historical price distribution and maintains that his analysis shows why investors should avoid bitcoin and other risk assets. Critics including Jason Fernandes and Mati Greenspan say the revised $28,000 target is still unlikely or overly deterministic, warning that such stark forecasts can distort positioning and put real capital at risk in reflexive crypto markets.
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone appeared to walk back his $10,000 forecast for bitcoin, instead highlighting $28,000 after being challenged on social media and accused of being an alarmist whose “nonsensical” forecasts put real capital at risk.
Earlier this week, McGlone warned that collapsing crypto prices could signal broader financial stress and that bitcoin could revert toward $10,000 if U.S. equities peak and recession follows. He framed the token as a high-beta risk asset vulnerable to a breakdown in the post-2008 “buy the dip” regime.
But in a subsequent post on X, McGlone pointed to $28,000 as a more probable level based on historical price distribution, a notable shift from his earlier base case. He also said his analysis “suggests why not to buy bitcoin or most risk assets.”
His correction upward also followed being challenged to a debate by market analyst and AdLunam co-founder, Jason Fernandes on X and LinkedIn posts.
Fernandes, whose LinkedIn challenge was liked but not accepted by McGlone, told CoinDesk his broader critique still stands, even after the Bloomberg analyst revised his target. “$28K is obviously more realistic than $10K,” Fernandes said. “Proportionately fewer things need to go wrong for $28K than $10K.”
Mati Greenspan, a market analyst and the Quantum Economics founder, said $28,000 was still unlikely, “but in markets we never want to rule anything out.”
Greenspan had also called McGlone out in a post on X following his lower forecast, saying, “Mr. @mikemcglone11 would have you believe that an asset with trillions of dollars in monthly volumes could crash to a market cap of 200 billion.” He said the forecast was “literally nonsense."
Fernandes previously estimated a more likely reset in the $40,000 to $50,000 range absent a systemic liquidity shock. He noted that $28,000 now sits closer to his lower bound than to McGlone’s original call. “It bears mentioning that he has adjusted his near-term outlook closer to my low end than his previous prediction,” Fernandes said.
At stake in the debate is more than price targets. Fernandes said that deterministic, alarmist framing can materially influence positioning and put “real capital at risk,” particularly in reflexive markets like crypto.
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