According to Dalio's theory of long cycles, we are currently in the sixth stage.

A chaotic period where there are no rules, and power is the only principle.

Unlike domestic order maintained by law, international relations are mainly driven by raw power.

Because there is a lack of strong enforcement agencies internationally, when major powers clash, strength determines the outcome, rather than international law.

Five forms of warfare:

Trade/Economic War: tariffs, sanctions, supply chain cut-offs

Technology War: tech blockades, export controls

Geopolitical War: territorial disputes, alliance games

Capital War: financial sanctions, asset freezes

Military War: threats of actual conflict

Before a full-scale military war breaks out, the first four forms of confrontation usually occur first.

The lesson from history is that each stage of the long cycle typically ends with enormous conflict and rebuilding.

The most important question is, how great will the cost of this rebuilding be?

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