What to know : BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, saw record trading volume of more than 284 million shares on Thursday, exceeding $10 billion in notional value and shattering its prior volume record. The surge in trading came as IBIT’s price plunged 13% to below $35, its lowest level since October 2024, extending its year-to-date loss to 27% amid a sharp bitcoin sell-off. Heavy redemptions, record volume and a pronounced tilt toward put options suggest capitulation and peak fear among investors, potentially signaling the intense selling phase of a prolonged bear market.
Talk about frenzied trading.
On Thursday, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, tickered as IBIT, hit a wild record with over 284 million shares traded, per Nasdaq data. That’s a whopping $10 billion-plus in notional value.
To put it in perspective, that smashed the old record of 169.21 million shares from Nov. 21 by a massive 169%.
The record volume came as IBIT plunged 13% to under $35, the lowest since Oct. 11, 2024, extending the year-to-date loss to 27%. Prices peaked at a high of $71.82 in early October.
The fund processed redemptions worth $175.33 million on Thursday, accounting for 40% of the cumulative net outflow of $434.11 million across 11 funds, per SoSoValue.
IBIT, the world's largest publicly-listed bitcoin fund, holds actual coins and is designed to mirror the spot price of the world's top cryptocurrency, which has been melting down lately, crashing to nearly $60,000 on Thursday. The fund has been a preferred alternative investment vehicle for institutions seeking exposure to cryptocurrency through regulated products.
Capitulation hints
The combination of record volume and price crash often signals capitulation – long-term holders throwing in the towel and liquidating their holdings at a loss.
It marks the bear market's peak selling phase, potentially kicking off a slow, painful bottoming process.
IBIT options trading on Thursday told the same story. Longer duration put options. or contracts used to hedge downturns, hit a record premium of over 25 volatility points above call options (bullish bets), according to data source MarketChameleon.
That kind of heavy put bias often signals peak fear, too.
That said, nothing's guaranteed, as bear markets can drag on longer than even dip buyers can stay liquid.
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