The likelihood of Bitcoin falling to $69,000 has jumped to 68%, according to users on Myriad.

The prediction market platform, which is owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, shows that bearish sentiment around Bitcoin's price leapt 35% in the past week as BTC has fallen below the $80,000 mark.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands for $78,453 after rising 1% in the past day but plunging 11% in the past week, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko.



Bitcoin broke below $80,000 on Saturday, falling as low as $74,591 on Sunday, as investors were still digesting the partial U.S. government shutdown, along with news that President Donald Trump had nominated Kevin Warsh to step into the Federal Reserve Chairman role when Jerome Powell's term ends in May.

Warsh is seen as more hawkish than Powell, especially given his past criticism of quantitative easing and the Fed’s balance sheet expansion, Shady El Damaty, CEO and co-founder at Holonym, told Decrypt last week.

"That’s raising concern about how aggressive he might be with rate policy if inflation ticks up again," El Damaty said. "For crypto, the real issue is uncertainty right now, nobody knows if he’d follow through on those views, especially in an election year where pressure to maintain liquidity will be intense."

Analysts at Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital said that while the drop for Bitcoin has been bad, there are signs that BTC is stabilizing. For example, they pointed out that Bitcoin options markets are signaling caution—but still less severe than in November, when the price dropped from $107,000 to the $80,500 range.

"Price action, however, remains fragile. Momentum continues to point lower and upside remains constrained near recent resistance levels, leaving markets exposed to further liquidation-driven moves," the QCP analysts wrote. "In this context, selectively managing downside risk remains prudent. Structurally, this can be expressed via a short seagull, using a put spread financed through the sale of an out-of-the-money call, providing downside protection while accepting limited participation in any near-term rebound."

A “short seagull” is an options strategy traders use when they’re worried prices could fall, but don’t expect a big rally. In simple terms, it's a way to buy some protection against a price drop by sacrificing upside if prices rebound.

Despite trader pessimism, Myriad users still aren't convinced that markets could be headed for a crypto winter. At the time of writing, users on the prediction market platform rated less than a 4% chance that crypto markets could be headed for a prolonged downturn.

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