Bitcoin continued its rebound rhythm this morning, briefly surging to around 89,000 during the midday session. However, after reaching this level, it clearly lacked momentum and faced pressure, subsequently giving back its gains. The current price has retreated to around 88,200, essentially erasing the morning's rebound space and re-entering a state of consolidation. Ethereum's performance mirrored this, with a midday rebound peaking near 2,960 before losing momentum, now fluctuating around the 2,920 level, showing similarly limited rebound strength.
From a macro perspective, the current market lacks new substantial positive drivers. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaching this Thursday, the market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, indicating a "waiting for the shoe to drop" phase. Investor sentiment is cautious, and the overall trading atmosphere for risk assets is becoming subdued. In this context, the cryptocurrency market's lack of sustained rebound and weak oscillation is actually a normal performance.
Technical signals further confirm the weak rebound momentum. As prices rebound, Bitcoin's four-hour stochastic indicator has entered the overbought zone, while the MACD momentum bars are beginning to shrink, indicating that bullish momentum has not effectively amplified. This is more of a technical correction after a decline rather than a trend reversal. The rapid retreat after the price peak also reflects that selling pressure remains heavy above, and the market is still in a weak structural oscillation phase. Tonight, it is crucial to pay attention to whether the retracement deepens.
At key levels, Bitcoin's short-term defensive resistance remains in the 89,000–90,000 range, which is a pressure zone transformed from previous important support. This is also the current dividing line between bulls and bears. If the rebound cannot stabilize above this range, the price structure will still lean weak, with the risk of testing lower levels again. The short-term support below is focused on the 87,000–86,000 area. If this range is lost, market sentiment may turn cautious again, and volatility could increase.
For Ethereum, the structure is similar to Bitcoin. Resistance is concentrated in the 2,980–3,050 range, with the 3,000 level being both a psychological barrier and a previous area of intense oscillation. If it cannot break through for an extended period, bullish confidence will be hard to restore. The support below is focused on the 2,850–2,800 range, which is the area that has supported recent pullbacks. A break below this would indicate a further weakening of the short-term structure.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market is currently in a re-consolidation phase after a weak rebound, with the trend direction still unclear. Tonight, it is important to focus on the performance of U.S. stocks during the evening session and changes in market risk sentiment. In the absence of macro catalysts, the gains and losses of technical pressure and support levels will dominate short-term volatility. It is more suitable to respond around the range rhythm in operations, avoiding blindly chasing prices below key resistance.
This article is exclusively contributed by Jian Crypto (follow the official account: Jian Crypto) and represents personal views. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be timely and are for reference only. For more real-time guidance, please contact me!
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