What to know : Polymarket has launched new prediction markets tied to Volmex's bitcoin and ether 30-day implied volatility indices, allowing users to bet on how high volatility will get in 2026. The contracts pay out if volatility indices reach or exceed a preset level by Dec. 31, 2026, letting traders wager on the intensity of price swings rather than market direction. Early trading implies roughly a one-in-three chance that bitcoin and ether volatility will nearly double from current levels.
Decentralized betting platform Polymarket has listed contracts tied to Volmex's bitcoin and ether volatility indices, opening the door for anyone to wager on market swings this year.
The two contracts, "What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?' and "What will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit in 2026?" went live on Monday at 4:13 PM ET.
These contracts pay "Yes" if any one-minute "candle" for Volmex's 30-day implied volatility indices tied to bitcoin and ether spikes to or exceeds the preset target by Dec. 31, 23:59. Otherwise, the contracts settle "No." A one-minute candle is a price chart showing an asset's price action, the open, high, low, and close, over just 60 seconds. It mimics the shape of a candle with its "body" and "wicks."
So, if you buy "Yes" shares, you are essentially bullish on volatility, which essentially means you expect a more turbulent market. On the flip side, buying "No" shares means you anticipate stability. In either case, you are betting on the degree of price swings, not the direction.
Polymarket's new contracts make volatility trading accessible to everyone, offering a simple, direct way to play a game historically dominated by institutions and large traders with ample capital. Traditionally, these big players have used complex, multi-step option strategies or volatility futures to profit from expected changes in volatility.
"Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, launching contracts on Volmex's BVIV and EVIV Indices is a major milestone for Volmex and crypto derivatives broadly," Cole Kennelly, founder and CEO of Volmex Labs, told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat.
"This partnership brings institutional-grade BTC and ETH volatility benchmarks into the simple, intuitive prediction market format, making it easier for traders and investors to express views on crypto implied volatility," Kennelly added.
Early trading in these contracts showed a 35% chance that bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) will double to 80% from its current 40% level this year. The ether market showed almost a similar pricing for volatility to rise to 90% from the present 50%.
Note that the correlation between bitcoin's implied volatility and spot price has become largely negative since the debut of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. two years ago. It means that any upswing in volatility is more likely to be accompanied by a spot price drop than a rally.
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