A fresh set of macroeconomic signals sharpened market expectations as investors weighed inflation data against shifting policy and geopolitical dynamics. Crypto research strategist Matt Mena of 21shares offered market commentary on Jan. 22, assessing how inflation stability, interest rate policy, and regulation are influencing bitcoin’s trajectory.
The strategist began: “This morning’s December PCE report has provided the definitive anchor the market needed to clear the lingering ‘data fog’ from late 2025.” He detailed that headline personal consumption expenditures matched estimates at 2.8%, aligning with November’s reading and pointing to stabilization in overall price pressures despite tariff-related uncertainty. He described Core PCE’s identical 2.8% year-over-year result as a decisive confirmation for the soft-landing narrative.
Mena observed muted reactions across traditional markets and steady behavior in crypto prices. Noting that bitcoin is increasingly behaving as a sophisticated macro hedge supported by record-low exchange balances and more than $59 billion in renewed ETF inflows that effectively floor-price the asset, he opined:
“ Bitcoin retested the $89K support level on the news and the wider crypto marketcap settled at the $3.1 trillion support.”
Read more: Peter Brandt Says $58K–$62K Is Where Bitcoin Is Likely Headed
The PCE data released on Thursday reinforced a higher-for-longer interest rate narrative that continues to act as a headwind for risk assets. Core PCE holding at 2.8% annually kept inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, effectively removing expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. A revised third-quarter GDP reading of 4.4% further indicated that economic momentum remains too strong for near-term policy easing. As a result, liquidity-sensitive markets remained cautious, with bitcoin struggling to reclaim the $90,000 level amid a firmer U.S. dollar, even as fears tied to the recent Greenland-related trade dispute eased.
Looking forward, Mena outlined an increasingly catalyst-driven path for the crypto market. “Looking ahead, the road to $100,000 and a $4 trillion total crypto market cap is paved with high-impact catalysts,” he forecasted, noting that President Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily walk back February tariff threats after his Davos summit with NATO leadership has shifted attention toward broader geopolitical realignment. He added: “We forecast a deal structure where Denmark provides provisions for sovereign U.S. enclaves… This resolution would likely be a massive ‘risk-on’ signal for financial markets.”
The strategist emphasized bitcoin’s durability during geopolitical stress, describing it as a growing neutrality hedge that has historically front-run relief rallies. Outlining a potential run toward $100,000 before quarter’s end and a projected all-time high near $128,000 in the first half of the year, he concluded:
“If macro data continues to come in line with expectations and tensions in Greenland cool, we expect bitcoin to break the $93.5K–$95K resistance.”
- Why did the December PCE report matter for bitcoin?
It confirmed inflation stability at 2.8%, reinforcing higher-for-longer rates that shaped bitcoin’s price action. - How are ETF inflows influencing bitcoin’s market structure?
More than $59 billion in renewed ETF inflows are helping establish a perceived floor price for bitcoin. - Why is the Federal Reserve unlikely to cut rates soon?
Core PCE remains well above the Fed’s 2% target and GDP growth is still too strong. - What catalysts could push bitcoin toward $100,000?
Cooling geopolitical tensions, stable macro data, and improving risk sentiment could drive a breakout.
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