🚀 Event Review

Recently, the ETH market has shown significant volatility, with the market starting, experiencing a sharp rise, and then a brief pullback, all closely related to macro policies and capital movements. Around 03:05, the ETH price started in the range of approximately $2915-$2921, and market sentiment quickly reversed due to a piece of positive policy news. After high-level talks with Trump, it was announced that the planned tariffs on the EU would be canceled, and a preliminary framework for future agreements regarding Greenland and the Arctic region was established. This news quickly spread to the digital currency market, leading to a large-scale liquidation of short positions, with institutional and retail funds entering strongly, pushing ETH to break through the $3000 mark. The rapid fermentation of the event caused frequent explosive orders in the market, leading to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, resulting in a continuous sharp rise and local fluctuations within just 31 minutes. Ultimately, at 04:05, the ETH price fell back to around $3040.42, waiting for further signal validation.

⏰ Timeline

• 03:05
• The ETH market opens, with prices reported in the range of approximately $2915-$2921. At this time, the market gradually begins to feel the impact of previous positive policy expectations, and sentiment starts to warm up.
• 03:27
• Trump announces the cancellation of the planned tariffs on the EU and establishes a preliminary framework for future agreements regarding Greenland and the Arctic region, effectively alleviating market uncertainty regarding US-EU trade frictions.
• 03:32
• News flashes show ETH breaking through the $3000 mark, with bullish momentum significantly increasing and funds accelerating their entry.
• 03:05 to 03:36
• Within 31 minutes, the ETH price surged from approximately $2915 to $3017, an increase of 3.49%.
• 03:05 to 03:55
• The ETH price continued to rise, climbing from approximately $2921 to $3069, an increase of 5.07%.
• 04:05
• After a significant rise, ETH experienced a brief adjustment, with the price falling back and stabilizing around $3040.42.

🔍 Reason Analysis

The significant volatility in the ETH market is mainly driven by two factors:

1. Macroeconomic Policy Shift

• After meeting with NATO leaders, Trump announced the cancellation of tariffs on the EU and established a framework for future agreements, greatly reducing market concerns about US-EU trade frictions and uncertainties in US trade policy.
• Following the policy announcement, global political risk expectations improved, and market panic quickly thawed, providing a strong buy signal for digital assets, especially ETH.

1. Market Sentiment and Capital Effects

• As macro-positive news spread, short positions were rapidly liquidated, and capital shifted from panic to proactive entry.
• Institutional and retail funds entered simultaneously, along with net inflow data from major players (approximately $40 million net inflow in the last hour), providing ample ammunition for bullish momentum, driving prices significantly upward in a short time.

📊 Technical Analysis

Based on Binance USDT perpetual contract 45-minute candlestick data, the technical analysis of the ETH/USDT trading pair is as follows:

• Moving Average Indicators

• EMA5 crosses above EMA10, forming a golden cross, indicating a potential continuation of upward movement in the short term;

• However, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are currently in a bearish arrangement, suggesting that there is still adjustment pressure in the short term;

• Although the price is above EMA24/EMA52, indicating a strong bullish atmosphere overall, it remains below EMA120, showing a long-term bearish trend.

• Volatility Indicators

• The price has broken through the upper Bollinger Band, with the %B indicator exceeding 1.0, indicating an overbought state and a risk of a pullback in the short term;

• The J value is at an extremely overbought level, suggesting that some investors may consider taking profits.

• Volume and OBV

• Trading volume surged by 122.59%, accompanying the price increase, indicating active buying;

• OBV broke through previous highs, further strengthening buying power, confirming significant institutional capital involvement;

• The total explosive order data reached $8 million in the last hour, with short positions accounting for about 90%, indicating that short positions are being rapidly liquidated.

Additionally, in terms of candlestick patterns, multiple occurrences of the "three white soldiers" pattern have appeared, which is a typical bullish signal, reflecting that bullish sentiment is dominating in the short term.

🔮 Market Outlook

After experiencing a significant rise and intense volatility, ETH is likely to trend towards high-level consolidation in the short term:

• Optimistic Outlook

• If macro policies continue to play a positive role, and the global political and economic environment remains stable, with sustained capital inflow sentiment, ETH is expected to continue testing higher resistance levels, potentially targeting the $3100-$3150 range.

• With institutional funds and buy orders continuously pushing, the market after breaking the upper band may continue for some time.

• Risk Warning

• Technical indicators show clear overbought signals, with a high risk of a pullback in the short term; investors need to be cautious of profit-taking and market fluctuations;

• The divergence in short-term moving averages and some indicators showing overbought conditions suggest that some funds may choose to exit in batches at high levels, creating adjustment pressure.

• Strategy Suggestions

• Traders should closely monitor the 45-minute candlestick and volume changes, waiting for price pullback opportunities after high-level consolidation as a window for low-position layouts;

• At the same time, macro policy news, capital flows, and large transaction data are important reference indicators for future market judgments, and it is recommended to flexibly adjust positions to guard against sudden volatility risks.

Overall, while the current ETH market has achieved a strong rebound under the influence of positive policies and capital, the overbought technical indicators and short-term moving average divergences indicate that local adjustments are inevitable. Investors should remain cautious and operate rationally while paying attention to structural capital inflows.

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