On January 15, 2026, Eastern Time, the latest data on the capital flow of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and mainstream altcoin spot ETFs such as Solana and XRP in the U.S. market was released. On that day, both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs achieved net inflows for the fourth consecutive trading day, with all products within each sector showing positive inflows, continuing the capital recovery trend observed in previous days. More notably, the Ethereum spot ETF recorded a single-day net inflow that surpassed Bitcoin for the first time: approximately $164 million in net inflow compared to $100.2 million for the Bitcoin ETF, marking a significant "overtake" in terms of capital. Meanwhile, there was a clear differentiation in capital among products from different issuers, laying the groundwork for a structural analysis from the perspectives of product fees, liquidity, and institutional preferences.

Continuation of Capital Structure Differentiation in Bitcoin

● Capital Movement: On January 15, the Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of $100.2 million, achieving capital entry for the fourth consecutive trading day, confirming that the previous capital return was not an isolated event. In aggregate terms, the selling pressure has temporarily weakened, and the characteristics of incremental capital taking over are relatively clear.
● Leading Increment: Among the sub-products, IBIT saw a single-day net inflow of $315.8 million, becoming the absolute main source of incremental capital for the Bitcoin ETF sector, playing a key supporting role for the overall net value of the sector, and further consolidating its "leading" position in terms of trading volume and capital flow.
● Hedging Forces: In contrast, FBTC and GBTC recorded net outflows of approximately $188.9 million and $36.4 million, respectively, significantly offsetting the overall net inflow of the sector, indicating that there is still strong pressure for rebalancing and redemptions within existing capital.
● Structural Preference: From the perspective of single-day capital structure, funds are more noticeably concentrated in leading products with lower fees and greater liquidity. Transaction costs and secondary market price spread management capabilities are gradually becoming key considerations for institutions when choosing Bitcoin ETFs, rather than merely brand effects.

Capital Signals of Ethereum's Volume Surge

On January 15, the Ethereum spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of approximately $164 million, with a single-day scale surpassing the Bitcoin ETF's $100.2 million for the first time, achieving a phase of overtaking the "big brother" in terms of capital flow. This also marks the first time since the Ethereum spot ETF was approved for listing in December 2025 that it has surpassed the Bitcoin ETF in single-day net inflow metrics, signifying a narrative watershed. The continuous net inflow over four days, combined with this volume surge, indicates that institutions are beginning to position Ethereum closer to Bitcoin in their allocation hierarchy, gradually transitioning from a "supplementary asset" to a "core asset" in their portfolios. The capital flow data from SoSoValue and Farside highly aligns in direction and magnitude, reinforcing the authenticity of this Ethereum ETF volume surge and signaling that Ethereum products are gaining institutional attention on par with Bitcoin.

High Beta Testing of Altcoin ETFs

Against the backdrop of net capital inflows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, the Solana and XRP spot ETFs also recorded capital returns, reflecting a characteristic of capital risk appetite extending along the asset risk curve towards high Beta varieties. On January 15, the Solana spot ETF saw a net inflow of approximately $8.94 million; given the relatively small product size, this figure can already amplify price expectations and sentiment, reflecting a marginal capital layout towards high-volatility assets. Meanwhile, the XRP spot ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $17.06 million, performing notably among non-BTC and ETH products, indicating that investors are not limiting their allocations to just the "two leaders," but are beginning to explore multi-asset diversification within compliant channels. The simultaneous net inflow across multiple assets suggests a warming of overall risk appetite for crypto assets through the ETF channel, and compared to the smaller altcoin ETFs, their capital changes are more likely to amplify sentiment and volatility transmission, leading to more sensitive feedback on market style rotation.

Internal Dynamics of Grayscale

At the issuer level, the differentiation within Grayscale's series of products continues. The traditional flagship product GBTC recorded a net outflow of approximately $36.4 million on January 15, continuing the trend of capital withdrawal observed in recent times, reflecting that high fees and historical premium/discount fluctuations are still being voted out by capital in the new environment. In stark contrast, the mini trust BTC product, which is also part of the Grayscale system but has lower fees and a lighter structure, recorded a net inflow of approximately $6.7 million, becoming an important vehicle for capital absorption within Grayscale. The migration of capital from GBTC to new products with lower costs and more flexible structures is evolving into the main logic within the Grayscale system. This "redistribution" between different product lines under the same issuer has a relatively limited impact on the overall market price, reflecting more of a re-optimization process of existing capital in terms of cost structure and product experience, rather than large-scale inflows or outflows of new capital.

Structural Evolution Behind Continuous Net Inflows

The four consecutive days of net inflows for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on January 15 reflect that the selling pressure released through compliant channels is temporarily easing in the short to medium term, while allocation demand is gaining an advantage in the spot ETF channel. Against the backdrop of continuously increasing participation from traditional institutions and compliant capital, ETF net inflow and outflow data are becoming a clearer reference framework for capital dynamics in the spot market, providing timely signals for observing capital sentiment and risk appetite. The overtaking of Ethereum's net inflow scale, combined with the capital flow from GBTC to mini trusts within Grayscale products, points to a broader asset preference landscape: both incremental and existing capital are spreading from a single Bitcoin exposure to a multi-asset portfolio exposure. However, it is important to emphasize that due to the current lack of complete AUM data and longer time series of capital flow records, it is still difficult to make precise judgments about the strength and sustainability of this capital structure change. In the absence of sufficient sample support, extrapolating single-day or short-term phenomena as long-term trends still carries significant uncertainty, and market participants should remain cautious when interpreting the data.

Capital Tone and Subsequent Observation Points

Extending from the single-day data of January 15 to broader trend judgments, the currently data-supported tone indicates that the overall capital landscape for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is bullish, but internal structural differentiation is intensifying: leading low-fee products continue to attract capital, while established high-cost products face redemption pressure. Ethereum's first surpassing of Bitcoin in single-day net inflow scale lays the groundwork for a potential narrative shift from "single-core Bitcoin" to "BTC + ETH dual core," providing more imaginative space for institutions in asset rotation and structural allocation. The internal dynamics of Grayscale products clearly show that capital within the same brand system values cost and product mechanisms more, rather than simply relying on historical reputation. In the absence of complete AUM metrics and detailed capital structures from previous trading days, interpretations of the current capital form's continuity and trend should avoid excessive extrapolation, serving more as a phase sample for observing institutional preference adjustments and structural migrations rather than definitive conclusions.

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