Every public statement from CZ feels like a warning bell ringing in the frenzied party of the crypto world, reminding people not to forget to check if the ground beneath them is solid while chasing the myth of getting rich quickly.
“Even the President of the United States may not be able to predict the market in the next three to four months.” This was a sobering reminder from Binance founder CZ during a Chinese AMA on January 14, 2026, directed at investors trying to predict short-term market movements. In this exchange, CZ analyzed the bubble behind the Meme coin craze, rational expectations for altcoin seasons, the future valuation of Bitcoin at $200,000, and serious warnings for novice investors.
This AMA was not only a market analysis from an industry leader but also a deep reflection on the current culture of crypto investment, revealing the industry's oscillation between frenzy and rationality.
1. Market Observation: Long-term Vision in Calmness
● CZ's judgment on market trends shows a combination of restraint and foresight. When asked about short-term market conditions, he candidly stated that he could not accurately predict the market trends for the next three to four months. He used the analogy that even the President of the United States might not be able to predict the market in that timeframe to illustrate the uncertainty of the market, and this honesty earned him respect from the community.
● Regarding market cyclicality, CZ clearly pointed out that altcoin seasons will definitely return, as the market has its inherent cycles. He believes that future trading will not solely revolve around Bitcoin, as Bitcoin's main function is as a store of value, lacking more complex features like smart contracts.
● In his view, public chains, applications, and infrastructure projects still have room for development in the short term. For Bitcoin's long-term prospects, CZ maintains a firmly bullish attitude, believing that “$200,000 will come sooner or later, and there is currently no ceiling in sight.” This confidence in the flagship cryptocurrency stands in stark contrast to his caution regarding short-term trends.
2. The Meme Coin Myth: The Boundary Between Cultural Phenomenon and Investment Trap
● CZ's attitude towards Meme coins is particularly intriguing. He clearly distinguishes between Meme culture and Meme coin investment, stating that he enjoys Meme culture but has little interest in trading Meme coins. He believes that truly successful Meme coins need to have “anecdotes and historical stories,” and that genuinely valuable Meme coins are very few.
● According to CZ, the failure rate of Meme coins exceeds 90%, and investors need to take responsibility for their choices. He offered unique insights into the phenomenon of “P Little General” monopolizing early chips in the current Meme coin hype, suggesting that this is, to some extent, a manifestation of decentralization.
Early participants bear the risks, while subsequent buyers need to conduct their own research; CZ believes that third-party intervention is unnecessary at this stage.
● CZ particularly emphasized that he does not want most Meme coin speculators to focus excessively on his and He Yi's tweets. However, he also stated that he would not stop tweeting due to being watched, calling it his freedom. This attitude of maintaining distance while upholding personal expression reflects his clear understanding of his influence in the industry.
3. Investment Philosophy: Risk Awareness and Personal Responsibility
● CZ's advice to investors reflects a high level of vigilance regarding risks. He strongly advises against novices participating in contract trading, as the losses from volatility and leverage can be substantial. He repeatedly emphasizes “Investors must conduct their own research and take responsibility for their decisions,” aiming to cultivate a more mature group of investors.
● Regarding the BNB ecosystem, CZ shows clear confidence. He revealed that he still holds a large amount of BNB, believing that its price potential remains significant, but he will not provide a specific target price. He pointed out that the BNB ecosystem is solid and expressed pride in the numerous and active builders within the ecosystem.
● Interestingly, according to information from Binance Square, 94.13% of CZ's assets on the Binance platform are in BNB, 4.15% in USDT, and only 1.08% in Bitcoin. This asset allocation may reflect his high confidence in his own ecosystem, although this holding data may have some delay.
4. Industry Outlook: Emerging Tracks and Regulatory Challenges
● CZ expresses cautious optimism about the prediction market track. He believes that prediction markets are a significant long-term track, but they are still in the early stages. Taking Polymarket as an example, he noted that the platform currently has only one or two capable market makers, concentrated in the sports events sector.
● This field faces various uncertainties from regulatory bodies in different countries and competitors in the track. Regarding the X platform, which may support crypto investments, CZ compared the advantages of different platforms. He pointed out that users on Binance Square have completed KYC and can participate in trading directly.
● The upcoming smart asset tags and possible trading functions on the X platform may require users to go through a KYC process. This comparison shows his emphasis on user identity verification and compliance processes.
● CZ also mentioned Binance's product innovations, such as the new “shared holdings” feature on Binance Square, which can display the “shared holdings” and “shared trades” between users and their current homepage accounts. Community screenshots show that CZ's Square homepage displays “You all hold Binance Life,” which may be one of the emotional reasons for the over 60% increase in “Binance Life” within 24 hours.
CZ's Attitude and Strategy Towards Various Crypto Assets:
5. Ecosystem Building: Infrastructure Thinking Beyond Price
● CZ revealed in the AMA that he places more importance on infrastructure development than on short-term price fluctuations. He expressed a desire to focus on refining the underlying infrastructure of BSC to support users' investment and trading needs. This attitude reflects his belief that the long-term healthy development of the industry requires a solid technical foundation, rather than relying solely on market speculation.
● Regarding Binance's product direction, CZ mentioned the importance of education. The Binance Red Packet program is an example, which lowers the entry barrier through daily quizzes and rewards users for learning about cryptocurrency knowledge.
● Users can receive free crypto assets after completing simple questions related to market mechanisms, without the need for capital, collateral, or locking.
● This education-first philosophy is consistent with CZ's repeated emphasis on the responsibility of investors to conduct their own research. He recognizes that only by raising the knowledge level of the entire user base can the industry reduce irrational speculation and achieve sustainable development.
When CZ emphasizes that the failure rate of Meme coins exceeds 90%, the “shared holdings” feature on Binance Square shows that he holds certain assets in common with countless ordinary users. This subtle relationship reflects the current state of the entire cryptocurrency industry: on one side, leaders call for rationality, while on the other, the community collectively chases the wealth effect.
CZ's 94.13% holding in BNB and only 1.08% in Bitcoin starkly contrasts, indicating that his personal asset allocation suggests the future of the crypto world may not belong to the oldest digital currency, but rather to platforms capable of building complete ecosystems.
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX Welfare Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Welfare Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
