From over a decade ago when a PC could mine at home, to the profound transformations the industry has undergone today, both in breadth and depth, it is almost unimaginable compared to just a few years ago.

Looking back at 2025, the industry experienced Bitcoin soaring to a historic high of $126,000 in October, followed by a quiet December when hash prices fell to historic lows. Hot money flooded in, with even the Trump family completing a listing through American Bitcoin. Throughout the year, hash power grew by 30%, significantly increasing the competition in the Bitcoin mining industry.

As 2026 begins, here are the key trends anticipated for the industry in the coming year.

Loose macroeconomic conditions and a friendly regulatory environment

Compared to the past few years, the macro environment for Bitcoin mining has fundamentally changed. The monetary policies of major global economies are becoming more accommodative, coupled with an increasingly friendly regulatory framework, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin price movements.

According to Grayscale's 2026 outlook, a well-known digital asset management company in the U.S., the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at least twice in 2026, with a probability of 74%. This loose monetary environment will directly stimulate the strengthening of value storage assets like gold and silver, while Bitcoin, as "portable, transferable, and scarce" digital gold, further becomes an important anchor for institutional capital allocation.

Currently, Bitcoin's price has fallen 44% from the peak in October 2025 and 24% from Trump's inauguration day. Crypto research firm K33 Research points out that the primary reason for the decline is an imbalance in leverage and localized bubbles, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. The divergence between price and fundamentals has instead created an excellent opportunity for accumulation, with strong willingness from institutional investors to return. According to Bloomberg, there was approximately $1.2 billion in net inflows achieved in just two days at the beginning of this year.

On the regulatory front, the direction of U.S. crypto-friendliness has been set following the 2025 elections. The most important "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (CLARITY Act) is expected to be voted on in the Senate by the end of January. If passed, this bill will clarify Bitcoin and Ethereum as "digital commodities," regulated by the CFTC, marking Bitcoin's formal entry into the mainstream financial system. Banks will be able to safely custody Bitcoin, institutions will be able to trade Bitcoin more freely, and crypto companies, including mining firms, are expected to obtain financing at lower costs, significantly increasing the participation of pensions and long-term capital.

Countries that were once skeptical of cryptocurrencies are now actively building institutional frameworks to embrace them. For mining companies, this regulatory certainty directly translates into confidence for long-term capital investment. When deploying tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure, knowing that the policy environment beneath you won't suddenly collapse is invaluable.

In this macro context, even if future easing slows temporarily due to recurring inflation, supply-constrained assets like gold, Bitcoin, and certain commodities are still expected to receive structural support. This means that the long-term investment logic for Bitcoin no longer heavily relies on a single monetary policy path but is gradually built on a more solid value foundation of its "scarce asset" nature.

Vertical integration, mastering every step of the value chain

An important trend within the mining industry itself is the acceleration of vertical integration. By 2026, the most successful mining companies will no longer simply compete on hash power but will control the entire chain of energy, hardware, and operations, thereby reducing the production cost of a single Bitcoin.

Looking back, mining companies were merely data center operators, relying on the grid for power and ASIC manufacturers for equipment. However, today, leading mining companies are simultaneously becoming energy companies, hardware developers, and infrastructure operators.

Energy is the largest operational cost for mining companies, typically accounting for 60%–70% of total expenses. Therefore, controlling their own power generation sources can significantly reduce long-term costs and improve predictability (not being affected by grid price fluctuations).

Many mining companies are beginning to invest in or collaborate on energy facilities, such as off-grid self-built power from wind, solar, and battery storage, or partnering with renewable energy developers to set up mining sites next to large solar or wind farms, sharing power and sometimes using mining as a "stranded power absorption" solution to help improve the economics of new energy assets. Alternatively, they may directly operate gas power plants, exploring self-generated mining.

The same goes for hardware. ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) miners were originally sold to miners, mining farms, and data centers, but during 2024-2025, many mining machine manufacturers also turned to self-mining. When demand for new mining machines slows (due to increased difficulty, rising electricity costs, falling prices, etc.), manufacturers may hold large inventories. To avoid profit impacts from price drops, they use these machines for their own mining, converting inventory into Bitcoin rewards. This strategy is particularly pronounced during Bitcoin bull markets.

This integration not only enhances gross margins but also brings strategic flexibility. Controlling energy allows for optimal global deployment; controlling hardware enables timely upgrades of hash power. This has become a dividing line between industry leaders and those struggling.

The wave of AI transformation

One of the most noteworthy trends in 2025 is the strategic transformation of mining companies towards AI and high-performance computing (HPC), a trend that will further intensify in 2026.

The AI boom in the U.S. has created a ravenous demand for energy. A Morgan Stanley report indicates that by 2028, the U.S. may face a 20% power shortfall due to the energy consumption of AI data centers, equivalent to the electricity usage of 33 million households. Mining companies, with their existing infrastructure and power contracts, naturally possess a supply advantage. These data centers, often ranging from tens of megawatts to several gigawatts, can be transformed to support clusters of AI GPUs. When bear markets or halving events compress mining profits, shifting data centers to AI workloads becomes a key means of diversifying revenue.

For grid stability, Bitcoin mining companies can provide assistance by quickly adjusting power usage, a flexibility that traditional AI data centers cannot offer.

Of course, the transformation is not without challenges. Our VP of IR, Charley Brady, explained to media outlet Seeking Alpha that a data center may require hundreds of millions of dollars to support AI workloads, necessitating GPUs and AI chips, which are more expensive than ASIC miners used for Bitcoin mining. However, mining companies already possess land, permits, and grid connections, making it much faster to retrofit data centers to support AI than to build from scratch, giving them a structural advantage.

Additionally, AI data centers require significant investment to upgrade existing cooling systems and network facilities, which is why mining companies transitioning to AI/HPC often carry substantial debt. Media outlet CCN estimates that many publicly listed mining companies have raised over $4.6 billion through debt or convertible bonds for growth.

The era of energy efficiency

The technological arms race in mining hardware has reached a critical point, and 2026 will be a year where efficiency reigns supreme.

Three years ago, 20 J/TH was considered top-tier. But now, ASIC manufacturers have launched models with energy efficiency below 10 joules per terahash (J/TH). Currently, leading publicly listed mining companies have an average mining efficiency below 20 J/TH.

The harsh reality is that if miners are still using equipment from a few years ago, unless electricity prices drop below 3 cents per kilowatt-hour or even lower, mining economics have become difficult to sustain.

2026 will see an accelerated phase-out of old equipment. This will undoubtedly be painful for small miners who cannot afford to upgrade capital expenditures or renew their mining machines, but it is an inevitable result of technological progress. Of course, these devices are not worthless; they will still have value in areas with lower or even free electricity, and some mining companies have introduced operating systems that can reduce power consumption by throttling. In the U.S. market, by 2026, U.S. tax laws will allow for full depreciation of mining machines, which will significantly enhance the after-tax cash flow of mining machines.

Sovereign nations entering the mining space

On the geopolitical front, the most noteworthy trend is that sovereign nations are deeply engaging in Bitcoin mining.

For energy-rich countries, mining is an effective way to monetize energy or excess electricity: unburned natural gas, hydropower during wet seasons, flared associated gas, and renewable energy that exceeds grid absorption capacity can all be converted into Bitcoin.

At the beginning of 2026, Turkmenistan's "Virtual Assets Law" came into effect, establishing clear rules for cryptocurrency mining, digital asset issuance, and the operation of digital asset trading platforms, bringing order to an industry that previously lacked clear regulation. As of January 1, mining and trading have officially been brought to the forefront.

Countries that have already benefited from Bitcoin mining include Bhutan, where the government has utilized surplus hydropower through a state-owned investment agency to conduct Bitcoin mining and accumulate Bitcoin reserves since 2019. Turkmenistan's neighbor, Kazakhstan, once became the second-largest Bitcoin mining country globally, accounting for 18% of the total network hash power, second only to the U.S. Japan's electric power company (partially state-owned or state-controlled) also launched a Bitcoin mining pilot last year. El Salvador in Africa has also attempted to utilize geothermal energy from volcanoes for mining.

More strategically, Bitcoin is being viewed as a strategic reserve asset similar to gold. For countries looking to reduce dependence on the dollar or hedge against domestic currency depreciation, local mining provides a channel to accumulate Bitcoin without needing to purchase it on the open market.

Cloud computing power: An entry point for individual participation

Finally, let's discuss how individuals can participate in mining. The reality is that mining with a single ASIC in one's garage is becoming increasingly unrealistic. Rising difficulty, high household electricity prices, and low online rates for personal mining are industrial efficiency demands that are pushing retail investors out of direct mining.

However, this does not mean individuals are excluded; rather, the way to participate is evolving. Cloud mining and online computing power trading platforms are growing further, and this trend will accelerate in 2026.

These platforms allow users to purchase computing power shares without worrying about hardware, electricity, cooling, and maintenance, enjoying the efficiency dividends of large-scale mining farms while avoiding operational complexities.

The industry itself is no longer as chaotic as it was a few years ago; leading platforms are becoming increasingly mature, with improved transparency, clear fee structures, and more flexible contracts, making cloud computing power a viable path for retail investors to participate legally. Although there have been historical cases of fraud, legitimate operators have established credible records.

I believe this is a natural evolution of industry maturity. Just as investing in gold does not require owning a gold mine, participating in the Bitcoin mining economy does not require building a mining farm. This "intermediated democracy" not only expands the accessibility of the industry but also allows professional mining companies to focus on efficiency optimization.

Financialization of Mining

As we enter 2026, Bitcoin mining is gradually transitioning from a single computing power operation model to a more capital-oriented financialization phase. Computing power, mining machines, and mining farms are no longer just production tools; they are evolving into financial assets that can be priced, financed, and traded. This transformation is not without precedent: in traditional mining, Barrick Gold achieved financialization of cash flow by hedging future gold production; Franco-Nevada securitized future mining revenues through royalty and streaming agreements.

A similar logic is replaying in the Bitcoin mining industry. Mining companies are beginning to view future Bitcoin output as discountable cash flow, splitting and restructuring operational risks and price risks through computing power contracts, mining machine leases, custody agreements, and more complex structured arrangements. With the maturation of RWA (real-world assets) structures and the continuous improvement of Bitcoin derivative tools, the pricing and financing efficiency of mining assets have significantly increased.

This trend also helps to gradually de-beta the Bitcoin mining market, where mining companies do not fully bear the high volatility of Bitcoin prices but actively manage risks and smooth returns through financial instruments, evolving mining from a high-leverage, high-volatility model to a hybrid form of infrastructure and financial assets.

Looking Ahead

Bitcoin mining in 2026 has transformed from a geek experiment into a global industry that integrates institutional capital, national strategies, and cutting-edge technology. The seven trends of macroeconomic easing, vertical integration, AI transformation, efficiency competition, sovereign entry, cloud computing power proliferation, and mining financialization all point in the same direction: Bitcoin mining is maturing, professionalizing, and deeply integrating into the fabric of the global economy, becoming an infrastructure within the global energy and financial landscape.

The foundation laid today will support Bitcoin for decades to come. And 2026 is destined to be a pivotal year in this journey.

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