A shifting macro and geopolitical landscape is sharpening investor focus on bitcoin’s trajectory toward $100,000. Crypto research strategist Matt Mena of 21shares shared commentary on Jan. 9, 2026, arguing that policy signals and liquidity conditions are quietly aligning in favor of a renewed move into six-figure territory.

“This morning’s December jobs report offers a potential signal for risk assets, characterized by a cooling labor market that isn’t yet cold. The +50K nonfarm payroll print missed the +60K estimate, continuing a trend of moderation, while the unemployment rate beat expectations, coming in at 4.4% against the forecasted 4.5%,” the strategist detailed. “This specific combination is the ‘sweet spot’ for markets: it shows a labor market that is softening enough to keep the Federal Reserve on a path toward rate cuts, yet resilient enough to avoid recessionary fears.”

He explained that this balance aligns with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices, materially increasing the likelihood of additional policy easing in the first quarter and strengthening the macro backdrop for bitcoin, emphasizing:

If unemployment continues to hold steady while inflation cools, we expect a definitive breakout of the $100K and a retest of the $110,000 psychological milestone that once served at an all-time high.

At 12:35 p.m. on Jan. 6, 2026, bitcoin is trading near $91,046, down roughly 2% over the past 24 hours as it attempts to steady after a pullback from recent highs, with 24-hour volume totaling about 3.26K BTC, or roughly $296.1 million. Price has ranged between $89,596 and $91,924 over the past day, reflecting a market that remains active but cautious as it digests prior gains. The broader structure still leans constructive, with bitcoin consolidating above the key $90,000 level rather than accelerating lower, suggesting the move is more corrective than capitulatory.

Read more: Arthur Hayes Discusses How the Price of Bitcoin and Certain Cryptos Will Skyrocket

Beyond monetary policy, Mena pointed to geopolitical developments as an underappreciated catalyst for bitcoin. He highlighted recent U.S. intervention in Venezuela as underscoring bitcoin’s role as a neutral, non-sovereign asset relative to traditional commodities such as oil that remain subject to policy control. He referenced reports of a seized 600,000 bitcoin stockpile, valued at roughly $54 billion, from the prior Venezuelan regime, noting that if the supply were effectively sidelined through a strategic reserve, it would remove a long-standing source of potential forced selling and materially alter market dynamics. The strategist also observed:

With bitcoin already up over 7% in the opening days of 2026, the path of least resistance is toward the $100,000 psychological milestone.

Structurally, Mena described improving conditions as bitcoin moves beyond the $90,000 ceiling that dominated late 2025, a period he linked largely to aggressive tax-loss harvesting. He characterized the current environment as a “January Effect on steroids,” with institutional capital redeploying and on-chain data showing whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 bitcoin shifting from net distribution to aggressive accumulation. He also stressed bitcoin’s 15-year trading history, noting that the asset has never recorded consecutive down years, framing 2025’s roughly 6% decline as a historical setup for recovery rather than a sign of weakness and reinforcing his view that conditions are aligning for renewed price discovery above prior highs.

• Why are investors refocusing on bitcoin’s move toward $100,000 in early 2026?
  Improving macro conditions, easing labor market pressures, and rising liquidity expectations are aligning to support renewed upside momentum for bitcoin.
• How does the December U.S. jobs report strengthen the investment case for bitcoin?
  A moderating but resilient labor market supports potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, which historically boost risk assets by improving capital availability.
• What role does Federal Reserve policy play in bitcoin’s potential breakout above prior highs?
  Signals of policy easing in Q1 2026 enhance the macro environment for institutional allocation to bitcoin and increase the probability of a six-figure price move.
• What structural and on-chain trends are investors watching for confirmation of a bull phase?
  Post–tax-loss harvesting inflows, whale accumulation, and bitcoin’s long-term pattern of rebounding after down years point to renewed price discovery.

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