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1: [Negotiations on the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill Encounter Obstacles: DeFi Regulation and Stablecoin Yields Are Major Disputes]

2: [Japan's Bond Market Sell-off Continues into the New Year]

What do we think about Bitcoin and Ethereum today? Bitcoin's strong start may have ended, with a rebound stopping at 95,000 and a continued decline. From this week's market, the spot ETF for Bitcoin is still experiencing continuous outflows.

Let's first talk about something regarding MicroStrategy. As the first company to adopt Bitcoin, its main business is accumulating coins. Recently, its stock has been on a downward trend, previously dropping to the MSCI index. It is commonly said that this stock should be removed from its entire index list. However, just yesterday, MSCI suddenly stated that it would not remove it for now. As soon as this announcement was made, MicroStrategy's stock rose by 6% in after-hours trading. Currently, this indicates that MicroStrategy is not as dangerous as previously thought, but from a long-term perspective, its risks have not disappeared. Even so, after such turmoil, market confidence in it has significantly decreased.

Additionally, let's discuss yesterday's initial jobless claims data: previous value 20; forecast value 21; published value 20.8. The numbers are not far apart, so the impact is minimal. The most important thing is to wait for tonight's non-farm payroll data, so today's market may be relatively calm, with significant data-driven volatility expected on Friday.

BTC: Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline in the morning yesterday, and after the evening data was released, it dipped to around 89,100, which is the cost platform level from the first wave of institutional entry on January 3. The 1-hour chart is in a cyclical second retest confirming support. Although it has not effectively broken below the 89,000 support level, from the 4-hour and 12-hour volume-price relationship, it is still in a bearish trend within a downward channel. Bitcoin is currently in a narrow range of oscillation between bulls and bears. The bulls need to confirm whether it can hold above 91,500; if it does, the second wave of momentum can continue. The bearish level below is 90,400. If it breaks, it will head towards the strong support at 89,000-85,700.

ETH: Ethereum's support area is at 3,050-3,030. The pressure area is at 3,150-3,180. Therefore, Ethereum's operations today are also in sync with Bitcoin, in a consolidation phase. In a structurally narrowing oscillation market without strong breakout signals, if it retraces to the support level without breaking through, one can buy low. If it rebounds to the pressure level without breaking through and the volume does not keep up, one should reduce positions and wait for a second retest to continue buying low.

In summary, today's intraday operation: the daytime lacks liquidity, waiting for the evening data release. The daytime is in a narrow range of oscillation; take a little profit and leave, don't be greedy. Avoid being washed out by this sideways movement, so when the new trend direction erupts, we won't panic. Therefore, buying low at support and selling high at resistance is the most stable rhythm for today.

In this past bull market, I have repeatedly emphasized that I believe the underlying logic of the crypto market has changed. The factors determining market trends will be more complex than before, and this complexity is something investors have not experienced in previous bull and bear markets. I am Tommy, a companion in the crypto circle who trades while learning. If you want real-time entry points and personalized strategies, click on my homepage to join the community. We have professional trading teachers accompanying you around the clock to help you maintain your mindset; you don't have to bear it alone.

Points are time-sensitive, and there may be delays in posting, so please refer to real-time market conditions. Finally, everyone should remember the two key points I mentioned in my last article this week: focus on trial positions in the short term, and once we deviate from our target range, it will be the last opportunity to make significant profits before the end of the year. I am Tommy from K-line Life, your real-time crypto steward. For more related coin analysis, please follow the public account for details. ↓

Mainly focused on spot, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC

Specializing in style: K-line trading

Original volume trading strategy.

Short-term wave highs and lows, medium to long-term trend trades, daily extreme retracements, weekly K-top predictions, monthly head predictions.

Public account QR code (K-line Life Tommy)

Warm reminder: The only public account at the end of the article is created by the author!!

Please be cautious in distinguishing between true and false, thank you for reading!

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