In January 2026 (UTC+8), Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and analyst Tom Lee outlined their vision for the 2026 cryptocurrency market and U.S. stock market annual roadmap through public statements and media interviews. Unlike previous discussions that focused on price targets or individual assets, this time they concentrated almost entirely on one core question: whether the cryptocurrency market can reach new highs in 2026, which boils down to three critical checkpoints that must be crossed. Around these three checkpoints, Bitwise provided a clear and calm framework—from the pace of key cryptocurrency and market structure legislation in the U.S., to whether high leverage risks can be controlled in advance, and whether the overall stock market can maintain relative stability. These three variables will collectively shape the fate of the new market cycle, also implicitly delineating different survival spaces for speculative and long-term capital.
The Outline of the Three Checkpoints is Emerging
In the statements from Bitwise and Matt Hougan, this potential 2026 bull market is not seen as a "naturally occurring" cyclical recurrence, but more like a game level that needs to be cleared. He directly tied the market outlook to three issues: the advancement of key cryptocurrency and market structure legislation, avoiding a repeat of high-leverage liquidation scenarios, and the overall stock market's ability to maintain relative stability. He emphasized that only if these three checkpoints are successively passed can the cryptocurrency market hope to reach new highs in 2026; otherwise, any failure could interrupt the upward trend at a critical moment. Regulatory certainty is prioritized because the willingness of institutional capital to enter highly depends on whether the boundaries of trading and custody are clear. Whether capital dares to enter the market is primarily a compliance issue rather than an emotional one. Following closely is the invisible string of leverage health: bull markets are often quietly undermined by excessive leverage amid cheers, and whether the market can sustain itself depends on whether deleveraging and risk control upgrades can be completed before the bubble becomes extreme. As for stock market stability, it constitutes the macro backdrop for pricing all risk assets; the liquidity rhythm and risk appetite on Wall Street will ultimately determine how much "beta beyond" premium cryptocurrency can obtain through ETFs, asset allocation, and passive fund rebalancing.
These views are not circulating in a small circle. At the beginning of 2026, Bitwise's official account and Hougan's personal account almost simultaneously released discussions on the "three major checkpoints," which were reported and dissected by mainstream cryptocurrency media, including Cointelegraph, allowing this framework to rapidly spread among institutional and retail circles. For Bitwise, known for its research reports and ETF products, this approach of providing mid- to long-term logic through official channels constitutes a signal in itself: they care more about whether structural conditions are in place rather than rushing to make short-term price predictions. This also enhances the credibility of the views—it's not just a casual remark on a podcast, but a public stance that represents institutional risk preferences and product layout directions.
Regulatory Gate Not Yet Established: Opportunities and Constraints from Legislative Delays
If the possibility of a 2026 bull market is viewed as a firework yet to be ignited, then U.S. key cryptocurrency and market structure legislation is like a fuse that has not yet been fully lit. Currently, the game surrounding this type of legislation is ongoing, and the final name and specific terms of the bill have not been fully finalized; the outside world can only roughly categorize it as a package of "market structure legislation that delineates clear boundaries for cryptocurrency trading and custody." From whether exchanges are viewed as compliant market facilities, to how custody businesses fit within the traditional financial regulatory framework, to how different types of tokens are defined between securities, commodities, or other legal attributes, the answers to these questions are compressed within the tug-of-war of the legislative process. Because of this, regulatory uncertainty becomes a standard double-edged sword: on one hand, it suppresses the pace of large-scale institutional entry, causing a significant portion of conservative capital to remain on the "watch list"; on the other hand, once compliant ETFs, custody licenses, and clearing paths are truly opened up after legislation is enacted, the pent-up demand that has been suppressed for years may be released in a short time, bringing in a more explosive influx of incremental capital.
In this context, discussions about the so-called "regulatory gate being established" are actually focused on the pace of advancing the market structure bill, rather than fixating on whether a specific bill is named a particular Act. Bitwise and Hougan have not locked their attention on the technical details of the text in their public statements, but rather emphasized the function of the bill in providing predictability of rules for market participants. A clear market structure framework not only means that compliance boundaries are delineated but also that the costs of violations and behavioral constraints are clearer, with the institutional risks of leverage, market making, and custody being partially "transformed" into priceable compliance costs. For the market, the truly important variable is not where a certain period ends in the legislative text, but whether this process is delayed, rapidly turned, or slowly but steadily advanced—this determines when, in what manner, and to what scale capital will choose to bet on this market.
The Shadow of High Leverage Lingers: The Fear of Repeating Liquidation Hangs Overhead
In Hougan's view, the second checkpoint affecting the direction of the 2026 market is less about the price itself and more about the leverage structure behind the price. Bitwise highlighted the "memory of high-leverage liquidations" when summarizing lessons from past cycles, referencing a significant liquidation event that occurred in October 202X—during which leverage in the futures and perpetual contract markets was concentrated and continuously increased amid rising positions, ultimately triggering substantial forced liquidations and chain reactions that completely breached the long positions' defenses within hours. Such a scenario has become a textbook example in the eyes of institutions of "how a bull market can suddenly die," rather than a random episode that can be easily forgotten.
As expectations for a new round of the 2026 bull market are repeatedly mentioned, the subtle changes in market sentiment unfold once again along familiar paths. Funding rates in the contract market are slowly raised during periods of crowded long positions, on-chain lending rates continue to rise amid the appreciation of quality collateral assets, and off-exchange credit expansion seeps into the trading ecosystem through structured products, off-exchange lending, and accounts receivable financing. All these single-point indicators may still be within a "reasonable range" at present, but driven by optimistic sentiment, they often exhibit a slow, linear upward trend—until a triggering event transforms it into a non-linear waterfall-like correction. "The faster it rises, the harder it falls" is not an empty slogan, but a statistical result left by leveraged funds on the order book.
From Bitwise's implied position, what they expect is not a short-lived firework driven by extreme leverage, but rather an extension of the entire cycle's lifespan through orderly deleveraging and risk control upgrades. This means that before leverage rates become extreme, systemic vulnerabilities should be gradually reduced through margin requirement adjustments, enhanced risk monitoring, and off-exchange credit contraction, thereby avoiding the need for regulatory "hard landing" interventions that abruptly interrupt the market. Once regulation is forced to intervene after a liquidation, it often results in not only the cleansing of high-leverage players but also a loss of confidence among spot ETFs, compliant funds, and long-term capital. At that point, even if the price curve for 2026 has not yet reached new highs, the imagined space for new highs will have been prematurely exhausted.
Is the Stock Market Stable? Cryptocurrency Fluctuations are Passively Tied to Wall Street Sentiment
The third checkpoint shifts the focus from on-chain and regulatory details back to the macro asset pricing level. Both Hougan and Tom Lee regard "the overall stock market maintaining relative stability" as one of the preconditions for the cryptocurrency market to strengthen. In their framework, cryptocurrency assets are not isolated pricing targets but are part of the high beta segment within the global risk asset basket. The overall expansion of risk appetite is usually grounded in the sentiment and liquidity environment of the U.S. stock market; when Wall Street is willing to pay higher valuation multiples for growth and stories, cryptocurrencies naturally find it easier to obtain premiums. Conversely, when the stock market enters a defensive mode, high beta assets are often the first to see position reductions.
Without referencing any specific index points, Tom Lee's thinking is closer to "scenario judgment" rather than "point prediction." He is not fixated on whether the S&P or Nasdaq will pull back a few percentage points in the short term, but rather focuses on a more critical question: will the U.S. stock market fall into an environment similar to a deep bear market or systemic risk event in 2026? If the answer is "no," then short-term pullbacks, technical corrections, and sector rotations can be seen as part of the normal fluctuations of risk assets, and will not fundamentally change the probability of the cryptocurrency market striving for new highs; if the answer is "yes," meaning Wall Street is forced to undergo significant passive deleveraging, with liquidity contraction and credit risk resonating, then no matter how optimistic the fundamentals of cryptocurrency may be, it will be difficult to offset the negative impact of passive selling and asset rebalancing.
The transmission chain between the stock market and cryptocurrency is often made explicit through ETFs and asset allocation decisions. When the U.S. stock market faces systemic selling under pressure, high beta assets and more liquid products in institutional portfolios are prioritized for sale to meet redemption and margin requirements, which naturally includes spot ETFs and cryptocurrency-related exposures. Conversely, in a scenario where the stock market is gently rising and expectations for a looser monetary policy are in place, the balance of funds between returns and risks will tend to favor chasing more elastic assets, allowing high-volatility cryptocurrency assets to potentially gain excess returns amid the overall expansion of risk budgets. Therefore, for Bitwise, the "relative stability" of the stock market is not limited to the smoothness of price curves; more importantly, it is about avoiding extreme scenarios that force the entire market into passive deleveraging, which directly determines whether cryptocurrency can continue its one-sided trend in a macro tailwind.
Commodity Turmoil Adds an Emotional Filter to Cryptocurrency and the Stock Market
As cryptocurrency and the stock market are repeatedly discussed in early 2026, another segment of major assets—the commodity market—is also releasing tension in its own way. According to reports from a single source, spot silver saw its decline widen to about 2.00% in a single trading day, quoted at about $76.5 per ounce; meanwhile, the main futures contract for polysilicon hit its daily limit down, with a decline of about 9.00%, quoted at about 53,610 yuan per ton. These two sets of numbers do not directly constitute a fundamental shock to the cryptocurrency market, but they outline the "turbulent" profile of precious metals and new energy chain varieties presenting at the same time—indicating a misalignment and divergence in the market's understanding of macro narratives, inventory, and demand cycles.
From the perspective of cross-asset risk appetite, when precious metals and new energy industry chain futures experience significant fluctuations in a short time, it often means that macro expectations are being repriced: judgments about interest rate paths, inflation trends, green transition subsidies, and industrial policies are rapidly corrected. Funds must reallocate their risk budgets among commodities, the stock market, and cryptocurrency. For some institutions focused on macro hedging or cross-asset allocation, significant volatility in a particular commodity exposure may force them to reduce overall risk leverage, thereby impacting the scale of stock and cryptocurrency positions; for funds that are more inclined to follow the cycle, if they believe that such commodity turmoil merely reflects local supply-demand mismatches rather than systemic risks, then reducing commodity exposure while increasing equity and cryptocurrency assets may also become a realistic choice in the near future.
It is important to emphasize that the price and decline data for silver and polysilicon currently come from a single source of reporting. In the absence of more market and industry chain information for cross-validation, they are more suitable as references for sentiment and market background rather than precise trading bases. Deriving specific arbitrage opportunities, price centers, or detailed trading strategies based on such data carries significant risks of insufficient information. For the current discussion, a more reasonable approach is to view these commodities' sharp fluctuations as projections of macro uncertainty across different asset classes, rather than simply equating them to "inevitable market trends indicating a certain direction."
Before Crossing the Three Checkpoints: Understanding the Preconditions for This Bull Market
Returning to the roadmap that Bitwise has outlined for the market in 2026, the so-called "three major checkpoints"—the pace of regulatory implementation, leverage risk control, and overall stock market stability—essentially construct a set of necessary conditions: only when the regulatory gate advances on a predictable track, high leverage risks are identified in advance and released in an orderly manner, and the overall stock market remains relatively stable without falling into systemic crisis, does the cryptocurrency market have a realistic opportunity to emerge from a structural market, even refreshing historical highs in both time and space. This is not a simple optimism about prices, but a calm dissection of the constraints behind the questions of "can it rise, how long can it rise, and to what extent."
The asymmetry in the time dimension makes this framework particularly important. Legislative negotiations often progress slowly and are full of gamesmanship, while the deleveraging process can often hit the brakes in an instant, and macro cycles have their own independent rhythms, making perfect synchronization nearly impossible. This misalignment, on one hand, leaves ample operational space for short-term and high-frequency funds to exploit a lot of "noise trading" in the gaps where regulation is still unclear, leverage has not yet exploded, and macro expectations are still being tested; on the other hand, it creates time windows for genuine long-term capital to gradually position itself—not rushing in at a certain "definite bull market starting point," but dynamically adjusting positions and risk exposures in the process as the three checkpoints become clearer.
From Bitwise's perspective, they are currently more like drawing a clear "no-go zone" for the market rather than promising anyone a specific target price or fixed yield. If regulation is delayed for a long time, if leverage collectively spirals out of control again, or if the stock market encounters systemic shocks, these are all potential "error scenarios" that could prematurely bankrupt the narrative of new highs in 2026. Without fabricating any specific index points or price fluctuations, what readers truly need to understand is the risk-reward balance represented by these three checkpoints: when regulatory certainty rises, leverage structures are healthy, and the stock market is in a mild environment, the long-term odds for cryptocurrency assets become more attractive; conversely, if any of the pillars begin to weaken, then regardless of how prices fluctuate in the short term, the anticipated "lifeline" of the 2026 bull market may remain only on the roadmap.
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