Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜jk
On January 7, 2026, a seemingly absurd yet consistently reliable intelligence indicator drew global attention. According to social media monitoring, the volume of pizza orders near the Pentagon surged by 1250% in the past 48 hours, nearly double the 700% increase observed just before the military action in Venezuela. This is the "Pentagon Pizza Index," a remarkable indicator suggesting that the U.S. is brewing a new military operation.
Pizza Orders and Military Intelligence?
The concept of the Pentagon Pizza Index dates back to 1990 when Frank Meeks, the owner of a Domino's Pizza in the Washington area, noticed a peculiar phenomenon: on the night of August 1, 1990, the CIA ordered a record 21 pizzas, and the next day Iraq invaded Kuwait.
This pattern has repeated itself:
- In December 1989, before the Panama operation, orders surged from 30-35 to over 100.
- In December 1998, during the Clinton impeachment hearings and the Iraq "Desert Fox" operation, additional cheese pizza orders at the White House increased by 32%.
The logic behind this is quite simple: during high-pressure crisis moments, Department of Defense (now the Department of War, renamed by Trump) staff often need to work 16-20 hours straight, and pizza is cheap, filling, and easy to deliver, making it the preferred choice for overtime.
Today, there are dedicated websites that monitor six pizza shops near the Pentagon in real-time, including Papa John's and Domino's. Currently, this website shows crazy multiples, ranging from 150% to 1250%.
What About Before the Venezuela Operation?
In the early hours of January 3, 2026, U.S. forces launched a raid in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, successfully capturing President Maduro and his wife. In the hours leading up to the operation, the Papa John's near the Pentagon was unusually busy.
This was not a sudden military action; the U.S. had been conducting a large-scale military buildup in the Caribbean since August 2025: in August, the "Iwo Jima" amphibious assault group arrived; in November, the "Ford" aircraft carrier strike group arrived; totaling about 15,000 U.S. military personnel, marking the largest military deployment in the region in generations. Thus, Pentagon staff working overtime led to all nearby pizza shops also working overtime.
A 1250% Increase: Who's the Next Target?
The latest data from Sunday night shows that activity at the Papa John's located 2.3 miles from the Pentagon surged by 476%, while the closer Extreme Pizza saw a 200% increase. The peak increase of 1250% compared to the lowest point set a historical record.
The Trump administration has stated that this is part of its "Don-roe Doctrine." This is a modernized version of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, essentially an advanced version of MAGA. Trump declared on Saturday: "America's dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never again be questioned."
According to the latest statements from Trump and his senior officials, the following countries and regions may become the next targets:
- Greenland: Trump emphasized that the U.S. needs Greenland to ensure national security. Prediction markets show that the likelihood of the U.S. "controlling any part of Greenland" has risen from less than 20% last week to 38%. The Danish government is currently in "full crisis mode."
- Cuba: Secretary of State Rubio warned that the Cuban government is "in big trouble." He pointed out that Maduro's bodyguards are Cuban, and 32 Cuban officers died in the Venezuela operation. Trump stated: "Cuba looks like it's about to collapse."
- Colombia: Trump directly threatened: "Colombia is also very sick, managed by a patient who likes to produce cocaine and sell it to the U.S., and he won't be doing that for long." When asked if he was considering military action, Trump replied: "Sounds good."
- Iran: After Trump threatened to "hit Iran hard," prediction markets estimate a 54% chance that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei will step down before next year.
How Are These Countries Responding?
Colombian President Petro has shown a tough stance, reportedly saying in November 2025: "Brother, if you want to put me in jail, let's see if you can do it." Recently, he announced that any commander who prefers the American flag over the Colombian flag will be immediately dismissed from the military.
The Cuban government has held two days of national mourning for the 32 officers who died in the Venezuela operation, clearly remaining highly vigilant to Rubio's warnings.
Meme and Prediction Markets: Already One Step Ahead
In such situations, the meme market and prediction markets are always the quickest to react.
On Polymarket, the market for "Trump 'acquiring' Greenland before 2027" has high sensitivity. The market probability has risen from about 7% on December 28 to 14% now, an increase of 7 percentage points, with trading volume exceeding $2.1 million. This rise coincides with the Venezuela operation.
The market for "Will the U.S. strike Cuba before xx date" shows a stair-step probability distribution: only 2% before January 31, 8% before March 31, but a jump to 20% before the end of the year. The loss of 32 Cuban officers in the Venezuela operation could become the trigger for U.S. action.
The market for "Will the U.S. strike Colombia before xx date" shows a more aggressive probability curve: 3% by the end of January, 7% by the end of March, and 15% by the end of the year.
At the same time, relevant memes have emerged, such as Pentagon Pizza Watch (PPW); this features a glowing pizza graphic hovering above a green Pentagon, adorned with missile decoration elements.
From market performance, PPW has seen a 78.20% increase over the week, with a 24-hour trading volume of $114,369, ranking 3689th in market capitalization.
Here, I strongly recommend reading this article from Odaily: 《When War Settles Before News: How Prediction Markets "Price" Maduro's Capture Operation 6 Days in Advance》。
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