600,000 bitcoins are scattered across digital wallets around the world, and the whereabouts of the key figures who hold the private keys to these assets remain a mystery. A financial shadow war surrounding 3% of the global bitcoin supply has just begun.
1. Gold, Oil, and Mining Machines: The Three Sources of Shadow Reserves
This massive wealth, referred to as "shadow reserves," did not come from thin air. Based on publicly disclosed information analyzed by analyst Serenity, the Maduro regime in Venezuela has built this enormous cryptocurrency reserve since 2018 through three main paths to evade international sanctions.
● The first is through "gold swaps" for initial accumulation. Between 2018 and 2020, Venezuela exported approximately $2.7 billion worth of gold and converted part of the proceeds into bitcoin through over-the-counter trading when bitcoin prices were low (reportedly averaging $5,000).
If some of this was converted and held until now, its valuation has ballooned to about $45 billion to $50 billion.
● The second is the shift to USDT oil settlements after the failure of the "petro" experiment. To bypass dollar sanctions, the Venezuelan state oil company (PDVSA) required some intermediaries in crude oil trade to use Tether (USDT) for settlements.
By December 2025, it is claimed that about 80% of the country's oil revenue will be received in USDT. Subsequently, realizing that the issuer of USDT still has the ability to freeze addresses, these stablecoins were quickly converted back into bitcoin. The assets accumulated during 2023 to 2025 are currently estimated to be worth between $10 billion and $15 billion.
● The third is "confiscating" bitcoins through domestic actions. Venezuela has become a mining hub in South America due to its low electricity costs.
Reports indicate that the Maduro regime has shut down private mining farms under the pretext of "illegal electricity use," directly confiscating mining machines and bitcoins. The assets seized during 2023 to 2024 contributed approximately $500 million.
In total, it is estimated that Venezuela accumulated between 600,000 to 660,000 bitcoins from 2018 to 2026, with a total value of about $56 billion to $67 billion. This scale not only surpasses the holdings of well-known public company MicroStrategy but even exceeds the national reserves of El Salvador, which has adopted bitcoin as legal tender.
2. Who is the True Controller of the $60 Billion Asset?
As the Maduro regime collapses in military action, the control of this massive asset becomes a core suspense. It is widely believed that the U.S. does not fully control these bitcoins.
● A key figure often mentioned is Alex Saab. This businessman, who was appointed by Maduro as the head of the Venezuelan International Investment Center, is seen as the "architect" of this shadow financial system.
● Saab has a complex relationship with U.S. law enforcement and has been an informant for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration since 2016. His role may not only be that of an operator but also a "guarantor" of these assets. The private keys controlling these assets are likely not held by a single individual. Intelligence suggests that there may be a multi-signature mechanism designed by Swiss lawyers, distributing the keys among multiple trustees in different jurisdictions.
● This structure means that even if Maduro and his inner circle are captured, the assets will not automatically change hands. The U.S. may need to obtain key fragments from informed individuals scattered across various locations through legal, intelligence, or even trading means. This elevates the situation from a simple financial pursuit to a complex game involving intelligence and geopolitics.
3. Three Futures for 600,000 Bitcoins
The ultimate fate of these 600,000 bitcoins (approximately 3% of the total bitcoin supply) is believed by analysts to be capable of reshaping the global bitcoin market landscape.
The potential disposal methods and market impacts can be divided into the following three scenarios:
Scenario One: Long-term Legal Freeze (Most Likely Path)
Given the complex origins of these assets, involving multiple national laws and lengthy investigation processes, the most likely outcome is that the relevant bitcoin addresses will be formally sealed and frozen by judicial authorities in various countries (mainly the U.S.) through court orders. This legal process could last 5 years or even longer.
● Market Impact: This effectively means that 3% of the global bitcoin circulating supply will "temporarily exit" the market. In the context of bitcoin's fixed and increasingly diminishing new supply (through mining), this essentially creates further scarcity in supply.
● According to basic supply and demand principles, this will create a long-term and solid value support for bitcoin prices, dampening market volatility and potentially attracting more long-term investors to view bitcoin as "digital gold." From a market psychology perspective, this "phantom reserve," while existing, will not enter the market for sale, greatly stabilizing bullish sentiment.
Scenario Two: Inclusion in U.S. National Strategic Reserves (Highly Strategic Choice)
If the U.S. successfully gains full control of these assets, it may choose not to sell them on the open market but rather incorporate them into its national asset reserve. This move would instantly elevate the U.S. government to one of the world's leading sovereign holders of bitcoin.
● Market Impact: This would mark a watershed moment in the history of cryptocurrencies. It signifies that the world's leading financial power has factually recognized bitcoin's status as a reserve asset. This would create a powerful demonstration effect, potentially forcing other major economies, such as the EU, Japan, and China, to urgently reassess and accelerate their strategic layouts in the digital currency field.
● For bitcoin itself, this would be a milestone in its value receiving sovereign state-level endorsement, potentially triggering a massive influx of institutional funds, with the symbolic benefits far exceeding the asset's intrinsic value.
Scenario Three: Ordered Auction or Market Liquidation (Lower Probability, But Maximum Impact)
Although the likelihood is low, if U.S. authorities decide to sell this batch of bitcoins on the open market for reasons such as recouping funds, compensating for sanction losses, or simply concluding the case, it would trigger an unprecedented market tsunami.
● Market Impact: In the short term, flooding the market with 600,000 bitcoins would create an unprecedented sustained selling pressure.
● As a reference, in 2024, the German government slowly sold about 50,000 bitcoins (valued at approximately $3 billion at the time), which led to a 15% to 20% significant correction in the market. The scale of Venezuela's reserves is 12 times that amount, and any attempt at rapid liquidation could completely shatter market liquidity, leading to a more than 50% deep plunge in prices and potentially triggering a chain reaction of liquidations and a credit crisis in the entire crypto ecosystem.
Therefore, any responsible disposal party would strive to avoid such a "suicidal" selling plan, more likely opting for a gradual, market-friendly decentralized disposal led by the Treasury or central bank over a period of several years or even decades.
4. The New Era of National Reserves: Bitcoin Coming to the Forefront
● The case of Venezuela starkly illustrates how cryptocurrencies can become a "financial lifeline" for sovereign nations when traditional financial channels are blocked. This event may accelerate the process of bitcoin "nationalization." If the U.S. successfully receives or controls these assets, its official bitcoin holdings will rank among the top in the world.
● This could prompt more countries to reassess the necessity of treating bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, shifting from a past wait-and-see approach to active allocation. In fact, countries like Bhutan and El Salvador have already begun establishing their own bitcoin reserves.
● This game also highlights the new role of cryptocurrencies in geopolitics. They serve as tools for sanctioned countries to break blockades and may also become new targets for financial sanctions imposed by powerful nations. In the future, monitoring and controlling key digital wallet addresses may become a routine means of international financial struggle, akin to freezing bank accounts today.
5. From Digital Labyrinth to Geopolitical Chips
● Venezuela has built what may be the largest national sovereign bitcoin reserve in human history amid a turbulent political landscape and economic sanctions, which itself is a testament to an era. It is reported that as much as 10% of the country's daily shopping and nearly 40% of personal transfers now rely on cryptocurrencies.
● Regardless of where the $60 billion worth of bitcoins ultimately flows, it has permanently changed the rules of the game. As hundreds of thousands of bitcoin private key fragments may be scattered from Caracas to Zurich, a financial shadow war has already begun.
● The outcome of this shadow war will not only determine the ownership of a massive fortune but will also profoundly impact the status of cryptocurrencies in the global financial system and the role they will play in the next round of geopolitical games.
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