Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.95 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.1%, or $1.74 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $31.84 billion, which has decreased by 0.28% over the past 7 days, indicating a weekly negative growth for stablecoins, with USDT making up 60.54%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen. Specifically, BTC has dropped 1.4% over the past 7 days, ETH has decreased by 1.89%, SOL has fallen by 2.84%, while NIGHT has increased by 22.03%, and H has risen by 28.88%.
This week, there was a net outflow of $589 million from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF; the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $80.3 million.
Market Forecast (December 29 - January 2):
The current RSI index is 51.46 (neutral range), and the fear and greed index is at 22 (lower than last week, indicating general fear). The altcoin season index is at 37 (neutral, unchanged from last week).
The core driving force behind the recent market trend is the liquidation of leverage under thin liquidity:
Event-driven: Around Christmas Eve (December 24), the market experienced a flash crash without any significant negative news, with Bitcoin dropping $2,300 in 45 minutes, triggering over $66 million in long liquidations. This reveals that during holiday periods, the market lacks depth and is prone to severe fluctuations due to large orders or leverage liquidations.
Liquidity: As previously mentioned, the spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen continuous net outflows before the holidays, weakening institutional buying support and making the market more fragile.
Technical: The three major assets are currently oscillating above key support areas. Whether BTC can hold above $85,000, whether ETH can stabilize around $2,900, and whether SOL can maintain above $120 are key factors in determining if the market can stop its decline.
BTC core range: $83,000-89,000
ETH core range: $2,750-3,050
SOL core range: $115-130
As shown in the chart, the current long-term holder realized profit ratio (SOPR) for Bitcoin is 1.53. In a typical bull market environment, this value is in the low range; if in a bear market, it is at a neutral level, far from the most panicked bear market bottom.
The macro landscape of this market has fundamentally changed: cryptocurrencies are transitioning from being restricted by multiple countries globally to gaining legislative recognition in mainstream markets like the U.S.; the market's dominance has gradually shifted from early miner groups to large institutions on Wall Street.
In the face of this new market structure, we should neither simply apply the past "four-year cycle" theory nor blindly continue with bull market thinking. Looking ahead to 2026, the market will intertwine both dangers and opportunities:
The danger lies in the fact that, from a historical cycle perspective, the traditional bear market time window has already opened.
The opportunity lies in the high probability that the Federal Reserve will enter a rate-cutting cycle, with global liquidity expected to continue to flow in; at the same time, asset management institutions and publicly listed companies are still continuously increasing their holdings, providing solid structural buying support for the market.
Therefore, even if the market enters an adjustment, its duration may be shortened, and the bottom will receive strong support. Based on this, we boldly predict that the bear market bottom price range for this cycle will be between $50,000 and $60,000.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On December 21, regarding the "50 million USDT phishing attack," the Ethereum Community Foundation posted on X platform, calling for an end to the practice of truncating addresses with ellipses (e.g., 0xbaf4b1aF…B6495F8b5). Address information needs to be fully displayed, as hiding parts of the address can create unnecessary risks. Currently, some UI options provided by certain wallets and block explorers also have security issues, which can actually be resolved;
On December 24, according to market data, U.S. stocks continued to rise, with the S&P 500 index approaching 6,900 points, just under 10 points away from the historical closing record. Additionally, the Dow Jones rose 0.18% during the day, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.27%;
On December 24, approximately $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire this Friday, marking the largest options expiration day in Bitcoin's history. Analysts point out that the scale of this expiration is enormous and generally bullish. The maximum pain point (the price level at which option buyers incur the greatest losses and sellers gain the most) is $96,000, which will reinforce the upward price trend;
On December 24, according to Cointelegraph, Aave founder Stani Kulechov has recently faced scrutiny for spending over $10 million to buy AAVE tokens, with some in the crypto community believing this move is to enhance his voting power in a key governance proposal;
On December 25, USD1's market cap surpassed $3 billion, reaching $3.011 billion, a 24-hour increase of 7.68%. Previously, Binance launched a USD1 savings product with an annualized yield of up to 20%;
On December 26, throughout 2025, the number of mentions related to blockchain in filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) surged, reaching about 8,000 in August and remaining high in November. Mentions related to Bitcoin dominated this growth, accounting for the largest share of filing activity, with Bitcoin spot ETF filings and amendments increasing, and traditional asset management companies continuing to expand their cryptocurrency products in 2025.
Macroeconomics
On December 24, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 20 was 214,000, with an expectation of 224,000;
On December 23, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, after the release of today's U.S. macroeconomic data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January has dropped to 13.3%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 86.7%. Last week, the probability of a January rate cut had risen to 31%. The inflation-adjusted annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the U.S. in the third quarter was recorded at 4.3%, with U.S. GDP growth surging, marking the strongest growth since the fourth quarter of 2023. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates until March next year is 54.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 40.7% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut at 4.9%.
ETF
According to statistics, from December 22 to 26, there was a net outflow of $589 million from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF; as of December 26, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.14 billion, currently holding $14.504 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $67.652 billion. The total market cap of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $116.673 billion.
The U.S. Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $8.03 million.
Envisioning the Future
Project Progress
The blockchain game ChronoForge tweeted that it will cease operations on December 30, citing "many obstacles," including a lack of funds, which has forced the founder to self-fund development since July and lay off 80% of the staff. "After discussions with the Rift Foundation, we believe we cannot sustain the operation of the game or the token, and ChronoForge will stop services on December 30, 2025;"
WLFI announced that the zero-fee promotion for BNB ecosystem USD1 has been extended to December 31, allowing users to transfer, withdraw, and cross-chain USDC and USD1 with zero fees on CEX, wallets, and cross-chain bridges;
BYEX is about to cease operations, and users must withdraw their assets before December 31;
Rabby Wallet announced that the backend API for Rabby Desktop will cease operations on December 31. This change will not affect user assets, which remain completely secure and can still be accessed through the Rabby plugin;
StarkWare has launched a $1 million OPCAT research fund to support research on the advantages and disadvantages of activating OPCAT on Bitcoin. The deadline for submitting research proposals is January 1, 2025.
Important Events
The fourth round of compensation for FTX is expected to start in January 2026, with the qualification confirmation deadline possibly in December, but the specific timing will await an official announcement;
The Turkmenistan cryptocurrency asset regulatory bill will take effect on January 1, which will help attract investment and promote digitization. The bill covers the regulatory framework for creating, storing, issuing, using, and circulating virtual assets within Turkmenistan, and clarifies their legal and economic status;
The Basel Committee plans to implement a bank cryptocurrency asset risk disclosure framework on January 1, 2026, which includes a set of standardized public forms and templates covering bank cryptocurrency asset risks. These disclosures aim to improve information availability and support market discipline;
Switzerland's tax information automatic exchange bill covering cryptocurrency assets is expected to be implemented on January 1, 2026. This expansion means that financial institutions will be required to collect and report customer information related to cryptocurrency assets;
The UK government will implement new cryptocurrency tax regulations starting in January 2026, with strict scrutiny of tax evasion. According to the guidelines, cryptocurrency exchanges operating in the UK must begin collecting detailed transaction records and complete information for all UK customers. HMRC will use the collected data to cross-check users' tax returns to ensure tax compliance, and violators will face sanctions. Additionally, the UK's new guidelines align with the OECD's cryptocurrency asset reporting framework to enhance transparency in the digital asset market;
The UK Tax and Customs Authority requires cryptocurrency companies to report each customer transaction starting in 2026. Non-compliance or inaccurate reporting may result in fines of up to £300 ($398.4) per user;
On January 3, the U.S. will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 (in thousands).
Token Unlocking
Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 53.47 million tokens on December 28, valued at approximately $10.7 million, accounting for 1.73% of the circulating supply;
Kamino (KMNO) will unlock 230 million tokens on December 30, valued at approximately $11.69 million, accounting for 5.35% of the circulating supply;
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on January 1, valued at approximately $14.31 million, accounting for 9.74% of the circulating supply;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on January 2, valued at approximately $8.64 million, accounting for 0.56% of the circulating supply;
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Research Reports"; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening) to identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also engage with you through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors make investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
