New Highs and Differentiation

Recently, the overall market value of stablecoins has surpassed the $310 billion mark, growing approximately 70% from about $182 billion a year ago, reaching a historical high. Reports indicate that the core of this growth still comes from dollar-pegged coins, especially USDT, the absolute leader, whose market value has climbed to about $186 billion, accounting for nearly 60% of the entire stablecoin market, further increasing concentration at the top, while long-tail projects have gained relatively limited increments in the overall expansion. On-chain data provides direct impetus for this new high: the head of the Ethereum ecosystem disclosed that the B2B settlement volume of stablecoins based on Ethereum has increased by about 156% year-on-year, and P2B payment volume has grown by about 167%, indicating a rapid amplification of demand for dollar-pegged settlement tools from enterprises and platforms; at the same time, on-chain analysis from Artemis points out that the TON network is in a leading position in this round of capital inflow, becoming one of the important public chains absorbing new dollar stablecoins. While optimism dominates, the market has also begun to discuss potential macro and regulatory checks: on one hand, there is still uncertainty regarding U.S. macro policies and interest rate paths, which may alter the yield structure of dollar assets; on the other hand, the warming expectations around the regulation of stablecoin issuance and reserves have marked this new market value high with a "policy variable" note amidst the excitement.

Capital and Sentiment

Rewinding from the 70% year-on-year growth, the market value of stablecoins has increased by about $130 billion over the past year, equivalent to injecting a significant "river of dollar liquidity" into the crypto market. This volume has not only significantly enhanced the available margin and market depth for exchanges and DeFi but has also objectively raised the upper limit of the entire crypto asset's market value: more dollar-pegged funds that can be entered and exited at any time mean that the price discovery and hedging capabilities of the spot and derivatives markets are strengthened. Artemis's on-chain data also shows that emerging public chains like TON have attracted significant net inflows of stablecoins during this round of capital expansion, echoing the overall market value expansion of USDT, reflecting that funds are migrating from a single centralized trading platform and a few mainstream public chain scenarios to a multi-chain ecosystem and over-the-counter payment and social applications. In terms of public sentiment, media and mainstream KOLs generally describe the new high of $310 billion with terms like "explosive growth" and "fundamental turning point," with FOMO sentiment boosting expectations of "accelerated adoption" and "institutional entry," although some voices remind to be cautious of the headwinds that the U.S. regulatory environment and macro liquidity may bring. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin prices being under pressure and sentiment being weak at the end of the year, the scale of dollar-pegged coins has reached a new high, and this divergence of price correction while funds have not significantly exited reinforces the interpretation that "funds are waiting for a better entry point rather than withdrawing from the race," becoming one of the key signals emphasized by the bullish camp.

On-Chain Demand Structure

Data disclosed by the head of the Ethereum ecosystem shows that the B2B settlement volume of stablecoins based on Ethereum has recently increased by about 156% year-on-year, and P2B payment volume has grown by about 167%, indicating that the role of dollar-pegged coins is evolving from a single medium primarily for "exchange-based USDT/USDC priced assets" to an infrastructure for inter-enterprise settlements and platform charges to consumers, similar to a "dollar commercial ledger on-chain." Enterprises are using stablecoins to pay supply chain payments, and platforms are using stablecoins to settle earnings or service fees to users, moving from pilot projects to larger-scale practices. Meanwhile, emerging public chains like TON are penetrating payment and social scenarios, bringing differentiated demand for stablecoins: payment functions embedded in instant messaging and social applications allow users to complete small transfers and tips while sending messages, leading Artemis to label TON as a "leader" in this round of capital flow, forming a differentiation from ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana that focus on DeFi and exchange scenarios. In terms of asset tokenization, Ondo Finance plans to launch tokenized U.S. stocks and ETF products, combined with previously laid out tokenized bond and treasury assets, making dollar-pegged coins naturally assume the roles of "cash legs" and margin in these products: investors subscribe and settle using stablecoins, and protocols price interest and collateral values in stablecoins. Current incremental demand can mainly be broken down into three categories: in cross-border settlements, enterprises and individuals use stablecoins to bypass the high costs and delays of traditional banks, accelerating capital turnover across different jurisdictions; on the exchange margin side, stablecoins continue to be the mainstream form of spot and contract margins, accommodating new leverage and hedging demands; in DeFi liquidity, stablecoins continue to serve as the base asset in AMM pools and lending protocols, providing underlying "dollar ammunition" for interest rate markets, leverage strategies, and structured products.

Core Controversies Between Bulls and Bears

Against the backdrop of a market value surpassing $310 billion and a year-on-year growth of 70%, bulls view this as direct evidence that crypto adoption is entering a new stage: more and more institutions and compliant funds are choosing to enter the on-chain world through dollar-pegged coins, and the stepwise increase in stablecoin market value is interpreted as a growth curve of "on-chain dollar deposits," which has certain parallels with the expansion of traditional bank deposits and money market fund shares. Coupled with the progress of AI and crypto integration, and asset tokenization—such as Anthony Pompliano proposing that "AI + Bitcoin" is an important direction for future finance, and projects like Ondo pushing U.S. stocks, bonds, and ETFs onto the chain—bullish camps believe that the structural demand for stablecoins will continue to amplify in the medium to long term. Conversely, cautious or even bearish views focus more on policy and governance aspects: on one hand, the U.S. may raise the threshold for disclosure of dollar-pegged coin issuance and reserves, strengthening KYC/AML requirements, and even impose restrictions on certain offshore issuers in extreme cases; on the other hand, the deep binding of some projects with political figures has raised concerns about decentralization and conflicts of interest. Reports indicate that the market value of the USD1 stablecoin associated with former U.S. President Trump has grown from zero to about $3 billion in a short period, bringing significant exposure and traffic to the project, while also sparking discussions on whether "politically branded dollar-pegged coins" will exacerbate industry concentration and become tools for policy games during election cycles. If such assets continue to approach or even challenge the scale of traditional leading stablecoins, regulatory agencies may reassess their compliance paths from the perspectives of systemic risk, election funding flows, and circumvention of financial sanctions. Before the regulatory framework becomes truly clear, the continued expansion of market value coexists with potential policy crackdown risks, leading to the question of whether the market has underestimated the corresponding risk premium, becoming one of the most core controversies surrounding the stablecoin sector.

Macro and Regulatory Links

From a macro and policy perspective, the marginal changes in the U.S. attitude towards Bitcoin and broader crypto assets are indirectly supporting the demand for dollar-pegged coins. Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, recently mentioned that the U.S. government and banking system are "fully supporting Bitcoin," preparing to discuss how to layout crypto business with traditional banks in multiple countries, including the UAE. Although these statements primarily target Bitcoin, they often imply that banks and custodians need a more regulated and compliant on-chain dollar system in practice, thus providing stronger institutional backing expectations for stablecoins. In terms of regulatory progress, events such as Coinbase suing multiple state regulators to limit prediction markets, CFTC seeking opinions on retail derivatives clearing rules, and the CLARITY Act entering the Senate for review outline the ongoing game in the U.S. regarding defining the boundaries of "qualified crypto products" and trading activities: the contours of the rules are gradually becoming clearer, but many gray areas have yet to be thoroughly delineated. If in the future, regulators introduce more specific requirements for reserve transparency disclosure, KYC/AML standards, and wallet whitelist mechanisms for stablecoins, it will directly impact offshore issuers like USDT and the current highly anonymous pricing of on-chain dollar liquidity: on one hand, rising compliance costs may compress issuers' profit margins and alter their asset allocation structures; on the other hand, restrictions on anonymous wallets and cross-border flows may force some currently reliant on stablecoins in gray scenarios to shrink. Looking back at every round of compliance processes in history—from exchange licensing to the implementation of custody rules—they often present a chain of "regulatory clarity—institutional adoption—market value expansion." For stablecoins, key observation indicators include: the frequency and details of reserve audit disclosures, whether mainstream banks and ETF products directly hold compliant stablecoins, and regulatory agencies' public attitudes towards cross-border payments and DeFi usage scenarios, which will determine whether the current $310 billion is just the starting point of a previous step.

Future Market Scenario Simulation

Looking ahead, three scenario paths can be roughly constructed. In the optimistic path, regulators adopt a relatively friendly "sandbox + licensing" model for compliant stablecoins, with transparent reserves and clear KYC frameworks but not overly tightening, asset tokenization enters a volume stage in U.S. stocks, bonds, and ETFs, and the demand for on-chain dollar settlements from AI + crypto applications continues to rise. Under this combination, the market value of stablecoins may potentially reach another level in the next one to two years, gradually approaching or even surpassing the trillion-dollar level. In the neutral scenario, regulation progresses gently but at a slower pace, tokenized assets remain more in pilot and small-scale applications, and the market value will still expand with the overall crypto cycle, but the growth rate will slow down from the current high growth phase of 70%, becoming closer to "medium-speed growth" assets in traditional finance. The pessimistic scenario assumes that the U.S. and other major economies take a hardline approach to offshore stablecoins, coupled with tightening macro liquidity, forcing some stablecoin projects to shrink their balance sheets or exit specific jurisdictions, potentially leading the industry to experience a dual repricing of volume and concentration in the short term. In terms of investment and risk management, key areas to focus on include: changes in the proportion of actual on-chain payments and settlements in the total circulation of stablecoins, the dynamic of the reserve structure, yield levels, and compliance costs of leading issuers, as well as the rotation of market value and activity of dollar-pegged coins across different public chains. The current scale of $310 billion seems more like a foundation for building a "dollar liquidity infrastructure" for the crypto market in 2026, rather than just a result of speculative funds flowing back in the short term: even with significant price volatility, once the on-chain dollar account system is established, its inertia often surpasses that of individual asset price cycles. However, in a high-growth phase, the risk of market value and influence becoming highly concentrated among a few issuers and public chains cannot be ignored, coupled with policy and macro variables; if a crisis of reserve trust or a sudden shift in regulatory attitude occurs, stablecoins may transform from a "liquidity pillar" into amplifiers of market volatility. Future judgments on whether the trend will reverse or accelerate still need to closely monitor two core signals: first, high-frequency on-chain data, especially the proportion of payment settlements and real economic-related scenarios; second, regulatory progress, including reserve audit details, wallet identity management, and cross-border compliance paths, which will determine whether the $310 billion is just a temporary high or the starting platform for the next round of the crypto cycle.

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