Ethereum #Bitcoin #Ethereum Real-time Analysis #Bitcoin Real-time Analysis #

Hello everyone, I am Lao Lv, here to discuss the market. The trend is quite similar to our expectations, with a divergence appearing in the dual currency trend: Bitcoin is strong, while Ethereum is weak. Yesterday, Bitcoin surged by $5,000 from the bottom, but Ethereum only rose from a high of $2,870 to around $3,030, showing a significant gap in growth. Ethereum is indeed weak; even with Bitcoin's surge, it cannot pull Ethereum up. Therefore, the probability of going long next is small. Yesterday marked the third time we reached a top-bottom conversion point, and since we haven't discussed Bitcoin in detail for a few days, today we will focus on it. Currently, the four-hour chart shows a double top and double bottom pattern, with a wide fluctuation of $5,000. The double top is at $90,000, and the double bottom is at $85,000. The strategy is clear: wait for a breakout above or below this range.

Bitcoin, we need to discuss first today. There is no obvious long or short position; it is still in a large range of fluctuations. As long as the entry point is appropriate, both long and short can yield profits. However, people are not machines and can only choose one side. Now is the time to make a decision. Last night, we estimated it was the seventh trading day, looking for a bullish reversal on the daily chart. Based on past trading days, we predicted that the daily close would turn bullish, and indeed, the bulls launched a counterattack as we expected. Our predicted timing was correct, but one thing to note is that the daily chart did not turn bullish. The small bullish hammer candle at 8 PM last night completely engulfed all gains, and the daily closed as a hanging candle, not closing bullishly. Instead, it continued to test support downwards, increasing the probability of breaking the $85,000 support. Yesterday, we clearly outlined our thoughts on Bitcoin: if it doesn't rise near $84,888 today, the support level will change to $85,000 tomorrow. So now we need to see if $85,000 can hold. It has become quite clear this morning that with $85,000 as support, the bulls have started to counterattack. Is there really no issue with this strategy?

Following the previous high and pullback, the next question is whether $85,000 will break. Therefore, there are two trading strategies: left-side and right-side trading. Left-side trading: wait to short near $88,200, looking for a break below the $85,000 support. Right-side trading: wait for a break below $85,000, then short on a small rebound. After yesterday's price surge, we do not rule out the possibility of a direct drop. If you hesitated to go long earlier, I wouldn't recommend going long now either, as repeated tests of the support level can lead to failure. If you often follow Lao Lv, you will frequently find this statement in my articles. This is particularly evident in Ethereum.

Short Bitcoin at $88,200.

Ethereum, initially, we were looking at $2,850 as effective support. The price rebounded significantly after hitting around $2,880 twice, but when it hit for the third time, it broke down! If you hesitated to enter due to a difference of just a few dollars, and got stuck at that entry point, you might get washed out by the price's volatility. The trend is ahead, and the price is behind. Now, the switching between long and short is frequent. We analyze the market every day, but if the trend analysis is wrong, it doesn't matter at what price you enter; it will still be wrong. So, everyone needs to think clearly about this issue. For Ethereum, we have a clear price point: strong resistance at $3,060. It is evident that the price has not risen above this significant resistance. Even if you don't understand the trend, we have explained it clearly in the article. Currently, Ethereum is in a continuous downtrend with infinite top-bottom conversions, so the probability of accelerating downward is high. It is currently moving within a channel, repeatedly spiking high and then breaking new lows, but lacks an accelerating pattern to break through the descending channel. Only if it breaks down can the bulls possibly return. If the price does not accelerate, the bulls still have no chance. According to our previous analysis of the daily head and shoulders pattern, we are still looking for a break below $2,620, just not as early in time. However, since the bears are coming down, we are still looking for an opportunity to bottom-fish in the range of $2,440-$2,400. We have been calling for this position for almost two months! If it really comes, we will not hesitate. We just didn't expect that there would actually be an opportunity to reach this price! After all, the price had previously reached above $3,400. The daily level watershed is at $2,880. Starting today, if it is going to drop, the price must not stand above this level. If it does, the bulls will start to counterattack again! Be prepared in advance.

Short Ethereum at $2,880.

Today: Written by Lao Lv at 10:50 AM on December 18, 2025. Note that all strategies are effective once and cannot be reused! Check the text version and specific entry prices in the lower right corner of the image or video.

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