Ethereum #Bitcoin #EthereumRealTimeAnalysis #BitcoinRealTimeAnalysis
Hello everyone, I am Lao Lv. These past few days have been quite a bloodbath; using this term shouldn't be an exaggeration, right? I mentioned a long time ago that my articles generally focus on swing trading, with Ethereum stop-loss set at 50 and Bitcoin stop-loss at 1000-1500. This is a rule we established in our articles and a guideline I provide to all my students. Stop-loss is a fascinating concept; during fluctuations, you feel like the market is moving back and forth, and you can't get trapped. However, once the market reverses, it becomes a disaster accumulated over decades. When such market conditions arise, you can see various learning communities and guidance groups starting to reflect and summarize. I apologize to everyone for the losses! It’s overwhelming. In summary, Lao Lv says: such guidance is either bad or foolish. We are not afraid of offending people; what we fear is offending people and still not being able to wake them up. Lao Lv has made many bold predictions in the past; they didn't believe me, but they all came true. Just look at gold, and then look at the two cryptocurrencies now. Back when the price was above 84,000 USD, didn’t we issue a warning in our articles? We informed everyone that this daily decline was the closest to 748,000, and we explained the reasons clearly. We are not afraid of doubts because we were indeed short internally, locking in a precise short position at 84,600. In my internal communication on the 30th, I clearly stated the importance of this rebound position. Early in the morning on the 30th, around 7 AM, I notified students to set a short position at this level. Of course, our maximum target was only looking at 5,000 USD, not the depth we are seeing now. This drop has exceeded market expectations and has caught many people off guard. Don’t worry; there may be more exciting developments ahead because this drop came too quickly!
Bitcoin is still following the 0.318 level, continuing to test new lows repeatedly. We discussed this 0.318 in our previous article; the price trend is extremely weak. Including the surge to 84,600 on the night of the 31st, it followed this technical pattern. Since the high of 97,900, it has been a steep decline, consistently following this extremely weak technical pattern. At the same time, it is also the peak of the hourly downtrend, which is a double technical point overlap. In our actual operations, we usually only analyze single technical points without taking action, but we open positions when encountering double or triple technical overlap points. Now that Bitcoin has dropped to this level, to be honest, opening long positions feels a bit tense. However, it has already dropped 24,000 USD without a single decent rebound; the largest rebound didn’t exceed 5,000. Therefore, the subsequent decline will definitely have a rebound exceeding 5,000, even above 10,000. There’s no need to doubt; it will definitely happen. It’s just that you can’t clearly identify this low point, and there are currently no obvious signals for an upward trend. We previously mentioned the range of 74,800-74,000, which belongs to the weekly level. A casual fluctuation or pullback in the weekly chart can easily trigger stop-losses unless you are in spot trading. However, I personally still want to take a gamble on this small bottom-fishing rebound, but we must consider Bitcoin's downward inertia, which means it is very likely to briefly break below 74,800 to around 73,000 and then quickly rebound. It’s also possible to approach 74,800 without a significant rebound. All of this is possible, but considering that going long is against the trend, it’s a big risk! Since we want to go long, we can only set our long position at the extreme level of 73,333. If this level breaks down further, we will really only meet at 57,777. However, considering that there are still three years until the next bull market, the market shouldn’t move this quickly! At the same time, we will continue to use the 81,300 level, which meets two technical points, as a defensive short. If a significant rise breaks this level, our next short position will be around 84,300, where three technical points overlap! In the coming week and next month, we need to focus on three levels: 73,333, 81,300, and 84,300 USD. We are unclear whether the price will go up or down first, but we must be prepared. I am the kind of person who always likes to do things with a plan.
Looking back to the days when the price was at 60,000, I predicted that a major bear market would come, and no one believed it. Eventually, it stopped at 15,000. Later, I made another statement that the price would remain low for the next few years, and a major bull market would follow. Again, no one paid attention. Because what has been said will eventually become history, and no one cares anymore. This time we are smarter; we directly pinned the article, and the facts will no longer be covered up. According to this trend, on Monday, the probability of gold and silver opening with a significant drop is very high. At the same time, everyone needs to pay attention to crude oil, which is likely to rise to the point where you question your life!
Bitcoin range trading: 73,333-81,300, whichever side reaches first, take that side; 84,300 is too far for backup.
Ethereum is like a little brother; the big brother calls the shots. Therefore, in terms of technical analysis, it is less reliable. We do fewer trend trades. It dropped to a low of 2,237 USD, which is slightly off from the 2,210 USD we mentioned, but the 2,100 level remains a strong support at both the daily and weekly levels. Yesterday, the price dropped directly to around 2,237. Although the price is close, it is still 100 USD away. We are still uncertain whether it will reach the second target because 2,220 is part of the daily starting point's real body. In a large cycle, it is impossible to reach our expected price perfectly every time; sometimes it doesn’t reach, and sometimes it exceeds, which is normal. After all, this is technical analysis, not picking the moon with bare hands. You can admire me, but don’t mythologize me! Given the complexity and uncertainty of the upcoming price movements, we should set limits on both ends! Down: 2,110, Up: 2,545 and 2,730. The analysis of these three points is similar to Bitcoin. Next week, maintain the range: 2,110-2,545, as 2,730 USD is too far from the expectation and should only be used as a defensive short. It’s best to plan ahead for next week; if there are significant price changes, we will make targeted adjustments. Why do we need to set limits at extreme ranges? There are two main reasons. First: the current drop is deep enough, and there has been no effective rebound; the downward space may not be sufficient, and if you rashly chase shorts, you could be cleared out by a big rebound at any time. Second: it is inherently a downward trend, and going long is necessarily against the trend; you can only look for lows in large cycles. The hourly and four-hour indicators we discussed in the past cannot be used as a basis for going long. Everyone needs to understand that in a downward trend, you can use the hourly and four-hour charts to find resistance levels, but when taking counter-trend positions, especially large ones, all small cycles will fail! The same applies to a significant upward trend!
Ethereum range trading: 2,110-2,545, whichever side reaches first, take that side; 2,730 is too far for backup.
Today: Written by Lao Lv on February 1, 2026, at 2:30 PM. Note that all strategies are effective once and cannot be reused! Check the text version and specific entry prices in the lower right corner of the image or video. Follow the WeChat public account: Please call me Lao Lv from the crypto circle.
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