BTC weakened after the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate cut decision on Wednesday, and it is expected to struggle to break through the $100,000 mark for the remainder of 2025.
Key Points:
Market predictions indicate that the probability of BTC reaching $100,000 before January 1 is only 30%.
BTC reserve buying activity has significantly slowed, hindering a short-term market recovery.
BTC currently faces resistance at $94,000, with the potential to break through to the $98,000 liquidity area via an ascending triangle pattern.
Most traders on the Polymarket and Kalshi trading platforms expect BTC to remain below the $100,000 mark in the next 21 days.
As of December 11, Kalshi platform investors estimate the probability of BTC breaking $100,000 by December 31 to be around 34%. Polymarket sets the probability of BTC reaching $100,000 by the end of 2025 at 29%.
The highest point for BTC in December occurred on Tuesday, reaching $94,600, while the BTC/USD trading pair last crossed the $100,000 mark on November 13.
Multiple factors are suppressing BTC's attempts to rebound in the short term, including growing macroeconomic uncertainty and a slowdown in BTC reserve purchases.
Data from Capriole Investments shows that the daily average rate of corporate BTC purchases continues to decline, indicating that institutional investors may be entering a state of fatigue.
Despite the weakening demand for BTC reserves, Polymarket predicts that the likelihood of Strategy selling BTC before the end of the year remains low, while expectations for regular small purchases continue to stay high.
Polymarket traders still believe that it is highly probable for Strategy to make regular purchases this week, with a 65% chance of buying more than 1,000 BTC.
Last week, Strategy spent approximately $962.7 million to acquire 10,624 BTC, expanding its BTC reserves to 660,624, likely matching last year's BTC purchase scale.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the BTC/USD trading pair has been consolidating within an ascending triangle in a shorter time frame.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted in a post on X on Wednesday that the price "is now challenging this resistance level again," referring to the supply area between the $93,300 annual opening price and $94,000.
A breakout and consolidation above $94,000 should drive the price towards the triangle's measured target of around $108,000, but Daan Crypto Trades stated it may only rise to "retest the previous support area of approximately $98,000," adding:
As reported by Cointelegraph, buyers need to push BTC above $94,589 to open the door for a retest of the $98,000-$100,000 area.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) experiences increased volatility ahead of the "tricky" FOMC meeting, failing to break the $93,500 year-to-date price level.
Original article: “Prediction Markets Bet Bitcoin (BTC) Won't Break $100,000 Before Year-End”
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