On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve approved a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the third interest rate reduction this year, in line with widespread market expectations. Continuing the price performance seen prior to the FOMC decision, Bitcoin broke through $94,000 on Monday; however, the media's hawkish description of this rate cut reflects a clear division within the Fed regarding the direction of U.S. monetary policy and economic outlook.
Given that this week's rate cut has been labeled "hawkish," Bitcoin's price may face a "sell the news" effect and continue to fluctuate within a range until new market drivers emerge.
CNBC reported that the Fed's "9 to 3" voting result clearly indicates that committee members still have concerns about inflation resilience, while economic growth rates and future rate cuts may face a slowdown in 2026.
Glassnode analysis shows that BTC is currently trapped in a structurally weak range below $100,000, with price movements constrained between a short-term cost basis of $102,700 and a "real market average" of $81,300.
Further Glassnode data reveals that ongoing weakening on-chain conditions, reduced demand in the futures market, and persistent selling pressure collectively create a market environment that hinders BTC from breaking through the $100,000 barrier.
Key points:
BTC's structurally weak range has trapped the market below $100,000, while unrealized losses continue to expand.
Realized losses have surged to $555 million per day, reaching the highest level since the FTX collapse in 2022.
Massive profit-taking by long-term holders (over one year) combined with the capitulation of top buyers has hindered a re-break of the cost basis for short-term holders.
The Fed's rate cut policy may not provide significant support for BTC prices in the near term.
According to Glassnode analysis, BTC's failure to break through the $100,000 level reflects an increasingly severe structural pressure: time is working against the bulls. The longer the price stays within this weak range, the more unrealized losses accumulate, increasing the likelihood of passive selling by investors.
Relative unrealized losses (30-day moving average) have climbed to 4.4%, ending a two-year period of stability below 2%, indicating that the market is shifting to a higher pressure environment. Even as Bitcoin rebounded from a low of about $92,700 on November 22, the realized losses adjusted for actual price continue to grow, reaching $555 million per day, a level previously only seen during the FTX collapse.
Meanwhile, long-term holders (holding for over a year) are realizing profits exceeding $1 billion daily, peaking at a record $1.3 billion. Analysts point out that this capitulation of high-position buyers, along with the massive distribution behavior of long-term holders, may prevent Bitcoin from breaking through the critical cost basis threshold, making it difficult to reclaim the resistance range of $95,000 to $102,000, which has consistently limited this fragile price range.
CryptoQuant data shows that the cryptocurrency market typically experiences an uptick before FOMC meetings, but a significant divergence is currently occurring: while Bitcoin prices are rising, the open interest (OI) continues to decline.
Open interest has been decreasing during the adjustment phase since October, but notably, even after Bitcoin hit a low on November 21, the open interest continued to shrink despite prices reaching higher highs. This indicates that the current rebound is primarily driven by spot demand rather than leveraged speculative behavior.
CryptoQuant adds that while a spot-driven upward trend is generally healthier, historical experience suggests that sustained bullish momentum requires an increase in leveraged positions for support. Given that derivatives trading volume structurally dominates, with spot trading accounting for only 10% of derivatives activity, if rate cut expectations weaken before the meeting, the market may struggle to maintain its current momentum.
Related: Shorting the decline and buying the rise? FOMC results reveal the truth behind Bitcoin (BTC) price trends.
Original article: “Conflicted Fed Cuts Rates, But Bitcoin’s ‘Fragile Range’ Pins BTC Under $100K”
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