At the end of 2025, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) challenged one of the most solid consensus in the crypto world at the Bitcoin Middle East Conference. He publicly stated that the code-written "four-year halving cycle" may have already failed, and an unprecedented "super cycle" may be approaching.
This statement is not unfounded; it precisely pierces the collective delusion of the market regarding simple historical patterns, revealing that the underlying narrative of Bitcoin is undergoing a fundamental paradigm shift from "cyclical pulses" to "structural trends." The driving force has completely shifted from the miners' hash power competition to the deep-sea game of global capital and macro tides.
1. Halving Cycle: The "Holy Grail" That Is Worshipped and Will Be Abandoned
For more than a decade, Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" has dominated every frenzy and despair in the market like an accurate tide table. This rhythm is rooted in Satoshi Nakamoto's original setting: every 210,000 blocks (approximately four years), the mining reward is halved.
● Echoes of History: The three halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 have invariably triggered super bull markets with price increases of one to two orders of magnitude within the following 12-18 months. This "scarcity coding-market feedback" model is simple yet powerful, becoming the "bible" for all participants to plan mining machine iterations and arrange investment cycles.
● Foundation of Logic: The core of this theory lies in the certainty of supply shocks. Halving directly and abruptly cuts off the supply flow of new coins, and under the assumption of constant or growing demand, it inevitably drives price re-evaluation. This purely internally driven model has allowed Bitcoin to function for a long time like an isolated economic experiment capsule.
However, the validity of any model is based on its key assumptions not being overturned. As Bitcoin's market capitalization surpasses one trillion dollars and spreads deep into the veins of the mainstream financial system, the gravity of the external world can no longer be ignored. The old pendulum is malfunctioning in a larger gravitational field.
2. New Dominance: Three Real Engines Driving the "Super Cycle"
The "super cycle" is not a longer bull market but a brand new price formation mechanism. It means that the pricing power of Bitcoin has shifted from internally predetermined processes to complex, continuous, and massive real demand from the outside. This is driven by three irreversible engines.
1. Institutionalization: From Marginal Flow to Stabilizing Force
The approval of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024 is a groundbreaking financial engineering feat. It has built a compliant pipeline that directs trillions of traditional world capital toward Bitcoin, fundamentally changing the nature of market funding.
● Qualitative Change in Capital Structure: The ETF does not bring "smart money," but rather "lazy money." The allocation of pensions, sovereign funds, and insurance assets is driven by programmatic rebalancing. They do not study the halving schedule but focus on the long-term allocation ratio of asset classes. This stable and continuous demand is completely decoupled from the halving rhythm.
● "Permanent Lock-up" of Supply: Public companies like MicroStrategy are purchasing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for their balance sheets. This behavior is not about buying low and selling high, but rather strategically "deleting" the circulating supply. According to on-chain data, the supply proportion of "long-term holders" who have not moved their coins for over a year has repeatedly reached historical highs, forming a rigid support for price declines.
2. Macroization: Becoming the Digital Gauge of Global Liquidity
When Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq index often exceeds that of gold, it can no longer be external to the global macro narrative.
● Hedging Consensus Against Fiat Currency Depreciation: In the post-pandemic era, where the expansion of major central bank balance sheets has become the norm, Bitcoin's absolute scarcity algorithm stands in stark contrast to the potential over-issuance of sovereign currencies. It is no longer just "digital gold," but a "call option" against the credit depreciation of the modern monetary system. Its demand strength is deeply tied to global (especially U.S.) real interest rate expectations and fiscal health.
● Multidimensional Tool of Geopolitics: In the international reality where financial sanctions have become normalized and capital controls are weaponized, the neutrality and censorship resistance of the Bitcoin network endow it with unique strategic value. This demand is difficult to quantify with traditional models but injects a unique "risk premium" into the price.
3. Utility: From Storage Protocol to Fundamental Layer Network
The story of value storage is strong enough, but the extension of the ecosystem is building a more solid second growth curve.
● Breakthrough of Layer 2: The steady growth of Lightning Network channel capacity and payment volume, along with explorations of smart contract solutions like RGB and BitVM, are slowly but surely breaking the utility curse of "Bitcoin network congestion and high fees." It is attempting to evolve from a single settlement layer to a programmable value internet foundational layer.
● Cornerstone of Digital Civilization: After enduring multiple extreme market and political pressures, the security, decentralization, and resilience of the Bitcoin network have been ultimately validated. In the global context of rising digital sovereignty awareness, its consensus as a neutral and open digital infrastructure is taking root among technology and thought leaders, giving rise to holding motives that transcend price faith.
3. Paradigm Duel: The Struggle Between Cyclical Pendulum and Trend Waves
The alternation of new and old paradigms is playing out in sharp confrontation in the current market data.
● "Deformation" of Volatility: Traditional cycles are accompanied by an emotional pendulum swinging from extreme greed to utter despair, with price volatility (Volatility) showing steep peaks and valleys. In the early stages of the "super cycle," volatility presents a form of "flattened" but "elongated." Severe single-day crashes are reduced, but mid-level adjustments triggered by macro events lasting several weeks are more common, as institutional investors engage in programmatic selling driven by risk control.
● "Failure" and "Rebirth" of Indicator Systems: Previously precise on-chain indicators, such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio), have repeatedly broken through their upper thresholds. Due to the daily net inflows of ETFs, as a new, on-chain invisible "external realization value," the bottom continues to rise. Analysts must creatively integrate traditional financial capital flow data with on-chain behavioral data to glimpse the full picture.
● "Demotion" of Halving Events: Halving has not lost its significance, but its role has been demoted from the "director" that triggers bull markets to an important "press conference" in a long-term bull market. It remains the core ritual that reinforces the narrative of scarcity, but the subsequent price trajectory will be more determined by the prevailing macro liquidity (such as Federal Reserve interest rate policies) and the rhythm of institutional capital allocation.
4. Testimony of Data: How Old Patterns Collapse in New Realities
Theoretical disputes require data validation. Currently, there are at least three phenomena in the market that clearly point to structural changes:
Correlation with U.S. Stocks Crossing the Critical Point: During the 2023 banking crisis and thereafter, the rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has repeatedly shown significant positive values and maintained for longer periods. This indicates that systemic risk and liquidity changes have become more immediate and powerful short-term price drivers than halving.
"Hoarding" Behavior Crossing Cycles: Glassnode data shows that regardless of whether prices are high or low, the number of non-zero addresses and the supply of long-term holders have maintained a stable upward channel. This proves that a large base of holders based on faith and long-term allocation has formed, weakening cyclical selling pressure.
Diminishing Influence of Miners: Halving directly impacts miner income, and historically, miner selling has been an important pressure source at the bottom of cycles. Now, with the diversification of institutional purchasing channels and miners themselves managing risks in advance through financial instruments (such as futures hedging), the marginal impact of miner selling pressure on the overall market has significantly decreased.
5. Navigating on the New Map
CZ's warning is a clear signal. It does not mean that the road to the future is smooth, but rather declares that the era of blindly navigating with old maps has come to an end. The essence of the "super cycle" is the inevitable stage after Bitcoin's coming of age—it must learn to survive and price itself in a complex, interconnected global financial ecosystem governed by multiple variables.
For everyone in the market, the new action guide is already clear:
● For Investors: The importance of the "macro interest rate cycle" must be elevated to a level equal to or even higher than that of the "halving cycle." Paying attention to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, the volatility index (VIX) of U.S. stocks is as important as monitoring hash rates.
● For Builders: Opportunities in the Bitcoin ecosystem are expanding from pure financial speculation to underlying financial protocol innovations (such as asset issuance and collateralized lending) based on its security.
● For Observers: Understanding Bitcoin requires simultaneous understanding of global monetary policy, technological advancements, and geopolitics. It has become a digital prism reflecting the complexities of the world.
Ultimately, Bitcoin may not have lost its cycles; it has simply been incorporated into a larger, more monumental economic cycle. Its heartbeat is beginning to resonate in sync with the heart of the world economy. This transformation from "code rhythm" to "world resonance" is the truly exciting super narrative behind the "super cycle."
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