Standard Chartered has revised its bitcoin outlook, reflecting newly adjusted expectations for the halving cycle and the influence of exchange-traded fund (ETF)-driven demand. The update centered on reduced price targets and a reshaped view of market structure.

The bank’s analysts explained:

With the advent of ETF buying, we think the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver.

“The logic in previous cycles (when US ETFs did not exist) – i.e., prices would peak about 18 months after each halving and decline thereafter – is no longer valid, in our view. However, it will take a break of the current all-time high (USD 126,000 on 6 October 2025) to prove that; we expect this to happen in H1-2026,” they added, as shared on social media platform X on Dec. 9 by Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at Vaneck. His post outlined the broader implications of the bank’s reassessment and reflected a shift in how institutional participants view long-standing bitcoin cycle patterns.

Read more: Yes, Bitcoin Is Down, but ‘the Sell-Off Is Over,’ Standard Chartered Says

Additional details conveyed in the shared analysis included cuts to the bank’s multiyear forecasts, with the 2025 target reduced from $200,000 to $100,000 and the 2026 forecast lowered from $300,000 to $150,000. Projections for 2027 and 2028 decreased from $400,000 to $225,000 and from $500,000 to $300,000.

The revisions mirror evolving participation from regulated investment products and changing liquidity conditions, even as long-term adoption narratives remain constructive. Broader market commentary continues to underscore that institutional inflows and ETF use may still support bitcoin’s structural trajectory despite near-term caution from traditional financial institutions.

• What did Standard Chartered change in its bitcoin forecasts?
  The bank cut its multiyear price targets for 2025 through 2030, reflecting a reassessment of market structure.
• Why does Standard Chartered believe the halving cycle matters less now?
  Analysts say ETF-driven demand has overtaken halvings as a primary influence on bitcoin price behavior.
• When does the bank expect bitcoin to break its all-time high?
  The outlook anticipates a move above $126,000 in the first half of 2026.
• How are ETFs shaping institutional bitcoin expectations?
  Increased participation from regulated investment products is shifting how institutions model long-term cycle patterns.

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