The market does not always turn at the noisiest moments; sometimes, the real turning point is quietly buried in a piece of overlooked economic data. The complex triangular relationship between the Federal Reserve, the labor market, and Bitcoin is causing global traders to hold their breath.
This week, Powell will once again take the global stage, with the FOMC interest rate decision to be announced at 14:00 Eastern Time on Wednesday, followed by his personal explanation of future policy directions at 14:30.
Market bets on interest rate changes are almost unanimous, with CME data showing that 87% of traders are betting on a rate cut. However, what truly makes the market nervous is not the rate cut itself, but the motivations behind it: is it a restart of the cycle or a prelude to a crisis?
Bitcoin is facing not only the Federal Reserve but also the real economic temperature revealed by the labor market itself.
The upcoming JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data is expected to be 7.2 million, unchanged from last month. This number seems stable but stands in a policy-sensitive range. When job vacancies remain high, it means that companies still need labor, wages have upward pressure, which also means that inflation has not been completely suppressed, limiting the space for rate cuts.
This is a double-edged sword for Bitcoin:
Economic strength → Improved risk appetite → Inflow of funds into Bitcoin
Economic strength → The Federal Reserve may slow down rate cuts → Decreased monetary liquidity → Pressure on Bitcoin
This contradiction is the true core of this market trend.
The initial jobless claims data to be released on Thursday is expected to be 220,000, and the drama of this indicator lies in:
Low number → Strong employment → Inflation may rebound → Federal Reserve turns hawkish → Pressure on Bitcoin
High number → Economic weakness → Federal Reserve more likely to cut rates → Risk assets benefit
In traditional finance, this is a typical "good news turns into bad news, bad news turns into good news" moment, and Bitcoin is being drawn into the center of this macro narrative cycle.
Combining macro, policy, and market structure, we can distill the most critical logic line for Bitcoin this week.
- Bitcoin is being fully priced for the first time in a "quasi-rate cut cycle"
In the past, when rate cut expectations emerged, Bitcoin often found itself in a "narrative-driven" phase, such as halving trends, DeFi booms, or leverage pushes. However, this year is different; Bitcoin is in the deepest phase of institutionalization.
Large funds, asset management companies, and pension funds have long included Bitcoin in their hedging strategy portfolios, meaning that the volatility of crypto assets is synchronizing with macro rhythms.
Therefore, this week's interest rate decision is essentially another "institutional pricing" of Bitcoin being incorporated into a larger financial system.
- Every piece of data from the labor market is determining Bitcoin's liquidity curve
The long-term logic of Bitcoin comes from scarcity, but the short-term logic comes from liquidity. And what determines liquidity? The answer is employment and inflation.
JOLTS and initial jobless claims data are actually the market's attempt to judge whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates over the next 12 months. A bit more rate cuts will raise Bitcoin's liquidity percentile; a bit fewer rate cuts will lower Bitcoin's price elasticity.
- Bitcoin is being repriced as a "high beta macro asset"
From an institutional perspective, Bitcoin has two identities: in the long term, it is digital gold; in the short term, it is a high-magnification version of the Nasdaq (high beta asset).
All events this week make the latter attribute more pronounced. If Powell leans dovish, it means the Nasdaq rises, and Bitcoin will be stronger. If Powell leans hawkish, it means the Nasdaq falls, and Bitcoin will be weaker.
Therefore, this week is a decisive week for Bitcoin's short-term trend direction and may also be the starting point for the sentiment curve over the next three months.
Before 2020, Bitcoin was almost "immune" to Federal Reserve policies. At that time, cryptocurrencies were just niche toys, and the Federal Reserve didn't even bother to mention the term "digital assets."
After 2024, everything changed.
The holdings of Bitcoin spot ETFs have exceeded 1.1 million BTC, with BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark's holdings approaching one-tenth of the U.S. gold ETF. Wall Street has packaged Bitcoin as a hybrid of "digital gold + tech growth stocks," enjoying both the benefits of macro liquidity and the premium of risk sentiment.
This has led to an absurd yet real situation where the Federal Reserve now has to consider whether each of its statements could trigger hundreds of billions of dollars in volatility in the cryptocurrency market, which could, in turn, backfire on the U.S. stock market.
The Federal Reserve will not cut rates for Bitcoin, but if a Bitcoin crash drags down the stock market, they may have to intervene.
Therefore, this week's story is not just about interest rates, employment, or Bitcoin volatility. It actually reveals a deeper reality: crypto assets are transitioning from being "anti-system assets" to "systemic assets."
Perhaps this is not the direction everyone expected, but it is the direction of history. And every direction of history will quietly change its trajectory on an ordinary economic data day.
Related: Improvement in crypto and traditional financial sentiment: Can Bitcoin (BTC) traders clear shorts above $93,000?
Original article: “Employment Data + Federal Reserve Decision Under Siege! The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin (BTC) Lies in This Week's Set of Signals”
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