As global financial markets fluctuate due to macroeconomic data and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, a series of significant news is stirring the nerves of the cryptocurrency sector. On December 4, 2025, in the Asian market, Bitcoin continued its overnight rebound, breaking back above $93,000. Behind this rebound is the unexpected "explosion" of private sector employment numbers in the U.S. for November— the "small non-farm" ADP data fell far short of expectations, triggering strong market anticipation for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, reports indicate that the Trump administration suddenly canceled interview arrangements with candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, suggesting that a successor has been chosen, likely leaning towards aggressive rate cuts, with White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett emerging as a strong candidate. These factors are collectively reshaping market confidence in risk assets, signaling that the cryptocurrency market may be on the verge of a new turning point.
- Unexpected "Explosion" in Small Non-Farm Data: Rate Cut Expectations Accelerate
The unexpected decline in U.S. private sector employment numbers for November has become a significant catalyst for driving market expectations for rate cuts.
ADP Data Far Exceeds Expectations: The ADP data shows that U.S. private sector employment fell by 32,000 in November, far below economists' expectations of an increase of 10,000, marking the largest decline since March 2023 and the second-largest decline since early 2020.
Job Market Clearly Weakening: Win Thin, Chief Economist at Bank of Nassau 1982, stated, "ADP has declined in three of the last four months and in four of the last six months. While ADP does not perfectly align with non-farm employment, it reflects trends, and the current trend is clearly weakening."
Cautious Hiring by Companies: ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson pointed out, "As consumers become more cautious and macroeconomic uncertainty rises, corporate hiring continues to show significant volatility. The slowdown in November is widespread, with small businesses experiencing the most noticeable contraction."
Surge in Rate Cut Probability: The CME's "FedWatch" tool currently indicates an 89% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, and major brokerages also predict a rate cut at the decision meeting on December 9-10.
- Trump's Sudden Unexpected Move: Federal Reserve Chair Candidate Moves Market Nerves
On Wednesday, investors also focused on another important piece of news—reports that the Trump administration suddenly canceled interview arrangements with candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair.
Successor Emerging: The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House has canceled interviews scheduled for this week with candidates on the shortlist for the Federal Reserve Chair, suggesting that Trump may have already chosen a successor.
Hassett Likely to Take Office: Based on this, the market speculates that the likelihood of White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, who is seen as favoring aggressive rate cuts, replacing current Chair Powell has further increased.
Bond Investors Concerned: The Financial Times reported that bond investors have expressed concerns to the U.S. Treasury, fearing that Hassett may actively pursue rate cuts to align with Trump's preferences.
Dollar Weakens, Gold Rebounds: Recently, the weakening dollar and rebounding gold prices are also attributed to market speculation that Hassett may succeed Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair after his term ends in May next year, and is inclined to push for more rate cuts. Steve Englander, head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered Bank's New York branch, stated, "Hassett has a very strong resume. The only question is whether he can maintain independence without pressure from the White House."
- Bitcoin Rebounds Above $93,500: Liquidity Shift and "Pain Trade" End Signal
Under the dual benefits of the small non-farm data "explosion" and hints from Trump's policies, the Bitcoin market has seen a significant rebound.
Price Rebound: On December 4, in the Asian market, Bitcoin continued its overnight rebound, breaking back above $93,500.
"Pain Trade" End Signal: QCP published a daily analysis indicating that after experiencing a roughly 30% pullback, BTC is showing initial signs of rebound, with the Federal Reserve's dovish comments raising December rate cut expectations to 75%, suggesting that market liquidity may be shifting. Goldman Sachs trader Brian Garrett candidly stated that many clients are viewing Bitcoin's performance as a barometer for future risk appetite; if Bitcoin trading improves, a year-end rally may re-emerge.
Derivatives Data Shows Optimism: Derivatives data indicates that investors have not given up on upward bets, with open interest in year-end call options still exceeding that of put options, concentrated in the 85K to 200K range. Meanwhile, negative funding rates suggest that long leverage has been cleared, reducing short-term downside risks.
Mid-term Outlook for the Crypto Market: Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated, "Although BTC has returned to $93,000, BCH has reached a recent high, and WLFI has also surged and stabilized, ETH and the broader market are lagging behind the stock market and macro-positive environment. With the confirmation of another crypto-friendly new chair (Federal Reserve) following the SEC chair, the 60-day bear market in the crypto market may come to an end. This 60-day bear market was caused by the '1011' crash leading to severe liquidity decline across the industry, along with the resonance of the four-year cycle, Japan's interest rate hike, and government shutdowns, but these negatives have now been digested. With the dual benefits of rate cut expectations and crypto policies, we remain optimistic about the subsequent market trends; investing requires not only wisdom but also patience."
- Future Trends: Retail Data and ETF Fund Flows Will Be Key
The next test for the Bitcoin market is whether spot demand can support this round of rebound once the derivatives market recovers from the clearing cycle.
Key Data: The market's trajectory in the coming days may depend on U.S. retail data, core PCE, and ETF fund flow performance. The market is still waiting for the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicators to be released, specifically the U.S. September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which has been delayed until Friday.
Gold Prices Spike Briefly: For non-yielding gold, declining interest rates are usually favorable. After the release of the small non-farm data, gold prices spiked briefly but then fell sharply.
Conclusion:
The unexpected "explosion" in small non-farm data and the Trump administration's hints regarding the Federal Reserve Chair candidate have jointly accelerated market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Bitcoin's rebound above $93,500 is interpreted by the market as the first signal of the end of the "pain trade," indicating that the crypto market may be on the verge of a turnaround. However, the sustainability of the rebound still requires verification through macro catalysts and the resonance of funding and fundamentals.
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Original Article: “Why Did Bitcoin (BTC) Rebound and Break Above $93,000 Today?”
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