After Monday’s turbulence, global markets have settled, but only on the surface. Bitcoin is holding quietly in the mid-$90K range after rebounding roughly 7% from the $86K lows, while equities and FX trade directionlessly ahead of next week’s unusually opaque FOMC meeting. Despite the calm, traders are clearly preparing for a major policy catalyst.

Betting markets now assign an 85% probability that Kevin Hassett will become the next Federal Reserve Chair, with President Trump expected to confirm the choice early next year. The timing matters: the central bank is entering one of its most sensitive transition periods in decades.

Vice Chair Miran departs in January 2026, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic exits in February, and Chair Jerome Powell steps down in May. That leaves the FOMC poised to shift more dovishly just as inflation debates re-intensify and the economy slows unevenly.

QCP’s Wednesday, Dec. 3 update notes that with no fresh CPI or payrolls data available since the shutdown backlog, policymakers will gather for next week’s FOMC with far less clarity than normal. Even so, futures markets now price a 90% chance of a 25bp cut, suggesting investors view governance and policy direction as more important than incremental data points.

Read more: Is Bitcoin’s Price Being Manipulated?

For now, bitcoin appears stable, but it is a fragile equilibrium. With uncertain Fed leadership shaping market expectations and a data-starved FOMC on deck, crypto is effectively in pause mode, waiting for policymakers to set the next major trend.

FAQ⚡

• Why is Bitcoin holding steady in the mid-$90K range?
  BTC is consolidating after a sharp rebound as traders wait for next week’s high-stakes FOMC meeting.
• What makes the upcoming FOMC meeting unusually uncertain?
  Policymakers have limited fresh data due to the shutdown backlog, creating a low-visibility environment.
• How are Fed leadership changes affecting market sentiment?
  Multiple upcoming departures and a likely new Chair are pushing investors to focus on governance over data.
• What are markets currently pricing in for U.S. monetary policy?
  Futures now assign a 90% chance of a 25bp rate cut, reinforcing the cautious tone across risk assets.

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