The on-chain capital flow of SOL is showing strong signals of a supply-side shift. This cryptocurrency is currently stabilizing above the $120 support area, but market participation still needs to increase to convert this structural advantage into substantial upward momentum.
Key points:
$2.12 billion USDC has flowed into Binance, while $1.11 billion SOL has flowed out, creating a typical bullish structure near the $120 level.
SOL futures trading volume has decreased by 3%, while BTC and ETH have increased by 43% and 24%, respectively, indicating that despite improvements in the spot fundamentals, trader participation remains sluggish.
Relative unrealized profits have fallen back to the October 2023 low, suggesting that the overall profitability of the market has reset, similar to previous accumulation phases.
Last week, Solana exhibited significant liquidity differentiation on the Binance platform, with USDC inflows surging to $2.12 billion, while SOL outflows exceeded $1.11 billion. CryptoQuant data indicates that this dynamic is crucial for maintaining key support levels, including $120, with the current price stabilizing above this level.
The outflow of large amounts of stablecoins typically represents potential buying power from whales or institutional investors, some of whom are in a wait-and-see mode. Meanwhile, the outflow of native tokens has alleviated selling pressure on exchanges, further reinforcing the structural supply tightening.
The fact that $450 million has flowed out of USDt further highlights the trend of capital being deployed into the USDC-dominated Solana ecosystem, a pattern historically linked to positive market behavior.
Despite the tightening supply-side dynamics, follow-up demand remains crucial. Analysts point out that without active spot buyers stepping in, the strength of the supply side alone may not support a broader directional trend.
According to Glassnode's cost basis distribution heatmap, a significant number of buyers have recently purchased approximately 17.8 million SOL at a cost basis of $142, while another 16 million SOL have a cost basis of $135.
The role of these clusters is similar to on-chain support and resistance areas:
Large clusters below the price create strong support, as many holders are in profit or close to breakeven, providing motivation to maintain the price.
Large clusters above the price form potential resistance, as trapped liquidity may choose to exit when the market warms up.
Therefore, SOL needs to reclaim the $135 and $142 levels to allow recent buyers to form a strong fundamental support level.
Although on-chain capital flows indicate an accumulation trend, activity in the derivatives market reflects a more cautious market environment. SOL futures trading volume has declined by 3%, while BTC and ETH futures trading volumes have significantly increased by 43% and 24%, respectively.
Analysts note that this imbalance suggests that SOL traders have been unusually quiet recently, contrasting sharply with the capital continuously flowing into the ecosystem through stablecoins.
Meanwhile, relative unrealized profits have fallen back to the October 2023 level, when SOL was trading at around $20. This reset in profitability may indicate that the market's speculative overheating has been alleviated, allowing the current market to enter a highly attractive re-accumulation range.
Data shows that the net realized profit and loss metric also recorded a significant negative value in November, a phenomenon reminiscent of the deep realized loss situation that occurred during the bottoming period from February to the end of April 2025. Historically, such patterns often signal a stronger market recovery cycle, but market analysts emphasize that traders need to re-engage actively to convert potential positions into substantial upward momentum.
Related: x402 ecosystem expansion, Solana (SOL) becomes the leading network in the payment sector
This article does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Solana's On-Chain Capital Flow Indicates Important Supply Shift as SOL Trading Approaches Key Support Level”
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